Domestic cobalt prices fluctuated and fell in May

According to data monitoring from Business Society, as of May 31, the cobalt price was 253100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.20% compared to May 1′s cobalt price of 264200 yuan/ton. The international cobalt price has declined, and the demand is not good. In May, the cobalt market stabilized, and the cobalt price fluctuated and fell.

International cobalt prices have significantly declined

From the trend chart of MB cobalt prices, it can be seen that in May, MB cobalt prices continued to decline, but the decline slowed down, and international cobalt prices fluctuated and fell, which was negative for the domestic cobalt market.

From the LME cobalt price trend chart, it can be seen that in May, LME cobalt prices significantly decreased, while international cobalt prices fell, which was negative for the domestic cobalt market and increased downward pressure on the domestic cobalt market.

Lithium salt prices skyrocketed in May

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, on May 31st, the price of lithium carbonate industrial grade was 290000 yuan/ton, an increase of 66.67% compared to May 1st, which was 174000 yuan/ton; On May 31st, the price of lithium carbonate battery grade was 310000 yuan/ton, an increase of 55% compared to the price of 200000 yuan/ton on May 1st. The price of lithium carbonate has skyrocketed, driving the atmosphere of the downstream lithium hydroxide market. The attitude of the industry towards price has increased, and the prices of enterprises have increased, resulting in a significant increase in lithium hydroxide prices. However, from the trend of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, it can be seen that since late May, the trend of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide has stabilized, and the upward momentum of lithium salts in the future is insufficient.

Lithium cobalt oxide prices surged in May

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of lithium cobalt oxide significantly increased in May. As of May 31, the price of lithium cobalt oxide was 290000 yuan/ton, an increase of 57500 yuan/ton or 23.93% compared to the price of 234000 yuan/ton on May 1. The price of lithium cobalt oxide has skyrocketed, and the support for the rise of the cobalt industry chain has increased. Metal cobalt has some upward support, but the price increase of lithium cobalt oxide has slowed down in the latter half of the year, and the support for the rise of metal cobalt price has weakened.

Poor demand growth

According to data from the China Passenger Transport Association, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in April reached 607000 units, a decrease of 1.7% month on month and a year-on-year increase of 115.6%. In April, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the market reached 527000 units, a decrease of 3.6% month on month and a year-on-year increase of 85.6%. In April, the sales of new energy vehicles decreased month on month. As the main force of demand growth in the cobalt market, the sales of new energy vehicles decreased, indicating that the demand growth in the cobalt market in April was less than expected, and the pressure on cobalt prices to decline increased.

According to data from the China Automobile Association, China’s new energy vehicle exports in April reached 100000 units, an increase of 28.6% month on month and 8.4 times year-on-year. According to data from the China Passenger Transport Association, China exported 91000 new energy passenger vehicles in April, an increase of 1028.5% year-on-year and 29.4% month on month. In April, the export of new energy vehicles surged, providing positive support for the new energy vehicle market. There is still hope for future growth of new energy vehicles, and there is still support for the rising demand in the cobalt market in the future.

According to data released by the General Administration of Customs, in the first quarter, the export of electric vehicles reached 64.75 billion yuan, an increase of 122.3%; The proportion of China’s automobile exports has increased by 5.1%, reaching 43.9%. Driven by multiple factors such as strong demand in foreign electric vehicles and energy storage markets, China’s lithium battery exports in the first quarter reached 109.79 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 94.3%. The surge in exports of electric vehicles and lithium batteries has provided positive support for the domestic cobalt market, but there is still support for the rise of the cobalt market in the future.

Overview and outlook

According to Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at Business Society, cobalt prices rebounded briefly in May due to the rise in lithium and cobalt salt prices. Additionally, the significant increase in exports of new energy vehicles and lithium batteries has provided significant positive support for the cobalt market, and the downward pressure on the cobalt market has weakened; However, the international cobalt price continues to decline, which is bearish for the domestic cobalt market. In addition, the sales of new energy vehicles in China have decreased, and the demand for cobalt in the market is insufficient. The momentum for cobalt price to continue to rise is insufficient. After a brief rise, cobalt prices quickly decline. As cobalt prices approach the cost line and exports stimulate demand in the cobalt market, the space for cobalt price decline is limited. It is expected that cobalt prices will fluctuate and consolidate in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic butadiene market fell unilaterally in May. From May 1 to 30, the domestic butadiene market price fell from 8851 yuan/ton to 6873 yuan/ton, with a 22.34% drop in the cycle and a 37.15% year-on-year drop in the price.

At the beginning of the month, due to the impact of external market prices and low prices from mainstream domestic suppliers, as Sinopec’s supply prices were lowered twice and some merchants still showed a bearish mentality, the butadiene market situation significantly declined. In mid month, the external market had a relatively abundant supply of goods and the transaction price continued to decline, which significantly dragged down the domestic spot market. At the same time, the main production enterprise Sinopec lowered its quotation by 300 yuan/ton within the week. Some early maintenance enterprises in Northeast China resumed their supply of goods by bidding and entering the market, resulting in abundant supply, causing the butadiene market to continue to decline. In the last ten days of this month, some of the northeast manufacturers’ goods were exported, and the spot resources were supplemented. The price of the external market was lower, while the price of downstream products was lower. The demand was difficult to support the butadiene market, and the market continued to decline.

On the cost side, the international oil market was mixed. In the first ten days of this month, the problem of the US debt ceiling raised investors’ concerns about the economic outlook. In addition, the increase in the number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits put pressure on the oil market. The increase in the US crude oil inventory depressed the international oil market. In late September, the US debt ceiling negotiation was a good rumor, and the oil market was boosted by the unresolved question of whether OPEC+, an oil producing country, would cut production.

In April, the domestic naphtha market fluctuated at a low level, with weak costs and demand. Terminal restructuring and ethylene demand continued to be weak, with limited market trading and light trading volume. The cost side of butadiene is influenced by bearish factors.

On the demand side, the downstream synthetic rubber market is weak and declining, and there are temporary shutdowns of styrene butadiene rubber plants leading to an increase in butadiene surplus. The synchronous decline of upstream and downstream products affects the industrial chain profits, making it difficult to effectively move down, and it is difficult for the butadiene market to find demand support. The demand for butadiene is weak.

In terms of external trading: On May 29th, the closing price of butadiene in Asia remained stable: FOB South Korea was quoted at $775-785 per ton; China CFR report $825-835 per ton. The external market of butadiene in Europe is closed.

In the future, it is predicted that the international crude oil price will fluctuate at a low level, and the cost side will be negative for the butadiene industry chain. With the restart of some units, domestic production may slightly increase in the next cycle. At the same time, imported cargo will arrive at the port, and the market supply side pressure is more obvious. The trend of downstream products is poor, and it is difficult to find obvious support on the demand side. Both supply and demand are weak. Butadiene analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic butadiene market will continue to decline weakly.

According to the data monitored by the business community, the price of carbon black in the downstream market has also risen recently, driven by the rising price of raw material coal tar. On May 29, the domestic carbon black N220 was quoted at 8666 yuan/ton.

Cost side: recently, the price of coal tar pitch and anthracene oil at the downstream of coal tar market has risen significantly, driving the price of coal tar market up. The rise of raw materials has strong support for the cost side of carbon black, and the price of carbon black market has also risen.

Supply and demand: Most carbon black enterprises maintain normal operating levels. This week, carbon black market prices rose, and early production stoppages and maintenance enterprises gradually resumed production this week, driving the operating rate of carbon black sample enterprises to increase.

In terms of downstream tire companies and other rubber product industries, the overall operating rate remains stable, finished product inventory is at a reasonable level, and the enthusiasm of enterprises to purchase goods is average. Purchasing is mainly based on hard demand. Recently, the frequency of fluctuations in the carbon black market has been relatively high, and the wait-and-see atmosphere for enterprises is strong, with weak transactions in the carbon black market.

On the whole, the market price of raw material coal tar has risen, and the cost side has some support, but the downstream demand has not improved significantly, and it is mainly wait-and-see. It is comprehensively expected that carbon black will maintain stable operation in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of May 26th, the average price quoted by epichlorohydrin enterprises was 8850.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.56% compared to Monday’s price.

This week, the market for epichlorohydrin was mainly down, with some companies adjusting their prices. Recently, the price of raw material propylene has decreased, the cost support for propylene method has weakened, and the price of glycerol has remained stable and fluctuating. The cost pressure for glycerol method still exists, and the production capacity utilization rate of the supply side industry has increased compared to the previous period. However, the enthusiasm for downstream inquiries in the market is not high, manufacturers are under pressure to ship, and the mentality of operators is insufficient. The focus of negotiations in the epichlorohydrin market has declined.

Upstream propylene, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the reference price for propylene on May 25th was 6450.75, a decrease of 8.53% compared to May 1st (7052.60).

Downstream epoxy resin, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the reference price of epoxy resin on May 25th was 14100.00, a decrease of 3.64% compared to May 1st (14633.33).

Analysts from the Business Society believe that the current market for propylene as a raw material is weak, with insufficient cost support and sluggish demand, putting pressure on the mindset of the industry. It is expected that the market for epichlorohydrin will be weak in the short term, and more attention still needs to be paid to changes in supply side devices.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of May 25th, the average price quoted by domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid enterprises is 3875.00 yuan/ton, which is unchanged compared to Monday’s price.

This week, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market continued its stable trend. The recent weak and stable operation of the raw material sulfuric acid market and the narrow consolidation of the raw material methanol market have little impact on the cost side. Downstream manufacturers mostly purchase on demand, and the overall market trading atmosphere is mild. The focus of negotiations in the formic acid market is stable.

Upstream product: Upstream sulfuric acid. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the reference price of sulfuric acid was 188.00 on May 24th, a decrease of 13.89% compared to May 1st (218.33); Upstream methanol, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the reference price for methanol on May 24th was 2175.83, a decrease of 10.21% compared to May 1st (2423.33).

Business Society formic acid analysts believe that the current cost impact is limited, and market transactions just need to be orderly. It is expected that the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market may remain stable in the short term, and more attention needs to be paid to market news guidance.

Recent price trends of urea

According to the commodity analysis system of the business community, the price of urea in the domestic urea market fell slightly this week, from 2535.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2495.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, down 1.58%. Weekend prices fell by 23.58% year-on-year. On May 22nd, the urea commodity index was 115.76, a decrease of 0.29 points compared to yesterday, a decrease of 24.01% from the highest point of 152.33 points in the cycle (2022-05-15), and an increase of 108.20% from the lowest point of 55.60 points on August 17th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Weak cost support, average downstream demand, and abundant urea supply

From the supply side perspective, the mainstream price of urea in China has slightly decreased this week.

From the data of the upstream and downstream industry chains, it can be seen that the urea upstream market has slightly declined this week. The price of liquefied natural gas has slightly decreased, from 3964.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 3740.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 5.65%. The weekend price has dropped by 45.11% year-on-year; The price of anthracite was adjusted at a low level. This weekend, the price of anthracite (washing block) in Yangquan was 1160 yuan/ton; The price of liquid ammonia has slightly increased, rising from 3223.33 yuan/ton last weekend to 3250.00 yuan/ton this weekend, an increase of 0.83%. The weekend price has decreased by 37.78% year-on-year. Upstream raw material prices have slightly declined, weakening support for urea prices. The price of melamine downstream of urea slightly decreased this week, from 7450.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7375.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 1.01%.

From a demand perspective: Agricultural demand is average, while industrial demand is normal. In some southern regions, rice has started to prepare and use fertilizers, and agricultural demand is average. The operating rate of the compound fertilizer plant is acceptable, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement is average. The board and melamine enterprises are operating normally, and the main focus is on purchasing just in need. From a supply perspective, the daily production of urea is around 160000-170000 tons, indicating sufficient supply.

Small fluctuation and decline in the future market

In late May, the domestic urea market may experience a slight fluctuation and decline. Business Society urea analysts believe that the upstream of urea has slightly declined, and the cost of urea is generally supported. Downstream agricultural demand is average, while industrial demand is normal. The daily production of urea is around 160000-170000 tons, with sufficient supply. In the future, urea may experience a narrow range of fluctuations and decline.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic methanol market has once again declined. From May 15th to 19th (as of 15:00 in the afternoon), the average price of the East China port in the domestic methanol market dropped from 2335 yuan/ton to 2282 yuan/ton. During the cycle, the price fell by 2.28%, with a maximum amplitude of 3.52%, a month on month decrease of 10.49%, and a year-on-year decrease of 14.75%.

The domestic methanol market has significantly declined, and the market atmosphere continues to be weak. After the futures price fell below the integer threshold of 2200 yuan/ton, the market sentiment became less confident. At the same time, the raw coal is still weak, the downstream demand is weak for a long time, the social inventory of the methanol market continues to accumulate, the source of imported goods also continues to pour in, and the spot market price of methanol drops again and again.

As of the close on May 19th, methanol futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange have been lowered. The main methanol futures contract 2309 opened at 2225 yuan/ton, with a maximum price of 2232 yuan/ton and a minimum price of 2161 yuan/ton. It closed at 2167 yuan/ton in the end, a decrease of 87 yuan/ton from the previous trading day’s settlement, a decrease of 3.86%. The trading volume was 1693932, the position was 1786940, and the daily increase was 232062.

As of May 19, the summary of methanol market prices in various regions:

Region/ Price

Shanxi region/ 2140-2160 yuan/ton factory withdrawal foreign exchange

Liaoning region/ About 2530 yuan/ton

Anhui region/ 2450-2500 yuan/ton factory acceptance

Henan region/ 2230 yuan/ton factory withdrawal foreign exchange

On the cost side, there is a clear contradiction between supply and demand in the market, and the trading atmosphere is weak. The price of raw coal is mainly weak. The cost of methanol is relatively weak.

On the demand side, downstream formaldehyde: inventory pressure is slightly increasing, and formaldehyde demand may decrease; Downstream dimethyl ether: A plant in East China has returned to normal, with a slight increase in demand for dimethyl ether; Downstream MTBE: MTBE demand or increase; The demand for acetic acid may decrease. The demand side for methanol is biased towards bearish effects.

On the supply side, the overall loss is greater than the recovery, resulting in a significant decrease in capacity utilization. The temporary storage of methanol supply is favorable.

In terms of external trading, as of the close on May 18th, the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market closed at $341.00- $343.00 per ton, a decrease of $2 per ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market is 88.00-91.00 cents per gallon; The closing price of the FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 273.00-275.00 euros/ton.

Region/ Country/ Closing price/ Up and down

Asia/ CFR Southeast Asia/ 335.00-337.00 USD/ton./-2 USD/ton

Europe and America/ The Gulf of the United States/ 85.00-88.00 cents/gallon./-2 cents/gallon

Europe/ FOB Rotterdam/ 272.00-274.00 euros/ton./0 euros/ton

In the future market forecast, supply remains abundant, demand changes are limited, and costs may temporarily stabilize. Business Society Methanol Analysts predict that the domestic methanol market may continue to be weak.

Recent trends in sulfuric acid prices

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the price of domestic sulfuric acid market fell sharply this week, from 210.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 196.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decline of 6.67%. Weekend prices fell 82.05% year-on-year. On May 15th, the sulfuric acid commodity index was 30.51, which was unchanged from yesterday and set a new historical low in the cycle, a decrease of 83.78% from the highest point of 188.07 on April 13, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Upstream market slightly rises, while downstream procurement enthusiasm weakens

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream domestic sulfuric acid manufacturers have slightly decreased this week, with average inventory levels among manufacturers.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industry chains, the upstream sulfur market has slightly increased, with sulfur prices rising from 750.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 763.33 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 1.78%. Over the weekend, prices fell by 80.19% year-on-year, with a slight increase in upstream prices and good cost support. The downstream hydrofluoric acid market declined slightly, with the market price falling from 10128.57 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 10114.29 yuan/ton at the end of the week, down 0.14%. Weekend prices fell by 13.70% year-on-year. The downstream titanium dioxide market was adjusted at a low level, and the market price was 16950.00 yuan/ton. Weekend prices fell by 19.09% year-on-year. The downstream market has slightly declined, and the enthusiasm for downstream procurement has weakened.

Small fluctuation and decline in the future market

In mid to late May, the domestic sulfuric acid market may experience slight fluctuations and declines. The upstream sulfur market started to decline slightly over the weekend, with insufficient cost support. Downstream titanium dioxide and hydrofluoric acid market declined slightly, downstream customers’ purchasing enthusiasm for sulfuric acid weakened, and the product trend declined under the contradiction between supply and demand. The sulfuric acid analysts of the business community believe that the short-term domestic sulfuric acid market is mainly affected by supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects, and the price of sulfuric acid market may fluctuate slightly.

In the first half of May, the market for butadiene rubber weakened and declined. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 15th, the domestic price of butadiene rubber was 11100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.46% from 11380 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The price of raw material butadiene has decreased, and the cost of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber has declined; During the cycle, the factory price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber suppliers has been adjusted twice (first increased and then decreased), and merchant offers have slightly decreased. According to the monitoring of Business Society, as of May 15th, the factory price of butadiene rubber at Sinopec North China Sales Company was reported at 11000 yuan/ton. As of May 15th, the mainstream market price of butadiene rubber in East China was 10800-11300 yuan/ton.

In the first half of May, the supply of butadiene rubber slightly increased, and there are still plans to restart devices in the later stage, making it difficult to alleviate the pressure on the supply of butadiene rubber in the short term.

In the first half of May, the price of raw material butadiene declined weakly, and the cost of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber declined. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 15th, the price of butadiene was 8281 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.44% from 8851 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

The natural rubber market slightly increased in the first half of May, providing slight support for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 15th, the price of natural rubber was 11880 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.39% from 11490 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

The tire operating rate slightly decreased in the first half of May, which had a strong demand for rubber support but was weaker compared to the previous period. It is understood that as of mid May 2023, the operating load of all steel tires for rubber tire enterprises in Shandong region is 6.3%; The operating load of semi steel tires for domestic rubber tire enterprises is 7.00%.

Future Market Forecast: Business Society analysts believe that in the near future, some butadiene rubber units will restart and there are also expectations of restarting some units in the future, resulting in increased pressure on the supply side of butadiene rubber; Downstream construction has slightly decreased, resulting in poor procurement of butadiene rubber. Although natural rubber prices have slightly increased, natural rubber inventory is still accumulating, and short-term support for butadiene rubber is not optimistic. Overall, it is expected that butadiene rubber will experience weak consolidation in the short term.

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the market price trend of phthalic anhydride by o-phthalic acid dropped slightly this week. By the end of the weekend, the quotation of phthalic anhydride by o-phthalic acid was 7962.5 yuan/ton, 1.85% lower than the price of 8112.5 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, and 1.09% lower than the same period last year.

Supply side: Stable operation of the device and normal supply of goods

Recently, the operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plants has been stable, and the domestic phthalic anhydride plant has been operating steadily. Currently, the operating rate of phthalic anhydride in China is around 60%, and the supply of goods is normal. The delivery situation of phthalic anhydride is average, and the market situation of phthalic anhydride has slightly declined.

Cost end: price trend of o-benzene market declines

This week, the price trend of domestic ortho benzene declined. By the end of the week, the price of ortho benzene was 8300 yuan/ton, down 2.35% from the price of 8500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. The supply of ortho benzene was normal, and the operation of on-site devices was stable. This week, the price of crude oil fell slightly, the pressure on the decline of ortho xylene cost increased, the demand for ortho xylene was weak, and the price of ortho xylene in the external market fell. The decline of ortho benzene price had a negative impact on the phthalic anhydride market, and the price of phthalic anhydride market fell slightly.

On the demand side: DOP market trend is declining, with on-demand procurement being the main focus

The price trend of downstream DOP market is declining. This week, the price is down 6.89%. At present, the domestic DOP price is 10009 yuan/ton. The domestic DOP enterprises are starting steadily. The demand for phthalic anhydride is mainly based on demand. The mainstream price of DOP is 10000-10100 yuan/ton. The main reason for the sharp decline of DOP price is the fall in the price of raw material isooctanol. On the whole, the demand of plasticizer industry is poor. Affected by this, the price of phthalic anhydride market declines slightly.

In the future, the price trend of o-xylene has declined slightly in the short term, but the demand of downstream plasticizer industry has not improved significantly. The supply of phthalic anhydride is normal, and the effect is general. It is expected that the price trend of o-phthalic anhydride market in the later period will be mainly volatile.