According to the Commodity Analysis System of the Business Society, the market price of isooctanol in Shandong fell first and then rose in June. The price of isooctanol first fell from 9120.00 yuan/ton on June 1 to 8660.00 yuan/ton on June 12, a decrease of 5.04%, and then rose to 9466.67 yuan/ton on June 28, an increase of 9.31%. In June, the overall market price of isooctanol in Shandong increased by 3.80%. At the end of the month, prices increased by 1.07% year-on-year.

On June 27th, the isooctanol commodity index was 70.10, an increase of 0.98 points from yesterday, a decrease of 49.02% from the cycle’s highest point of 137.50 points (2021-08-08), and an increase of 99.43% from the lowest point of 35.15 points on February 1, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

From the supply side perspective, the mainstream market price of isooctanol in Shandong Province fell first and then rose this month, with average inventory levels.

Cost side: Propylene market falls first and then rises

In June, the factory price of propylene first fell and then rose, dropping from 6460.75 yuan/ton on June 1 to 6155.75 yuan/ton on June 13, a decrease of 4.72%. Later, it rose to 6513.25 yuan/ton on June 28, an increase of 5.81%. Overall, the price of propylene increased by 0.81% in June, with a year-on-year decrease of 15.83% at the end of the month. The rising cost support is good, which has a positive impact on the price of isooctanol.

On the demand side: DOP market falls first and then rises

The DOP market price fell first and then rose in June. The price first fell from 9684.17 yuan/ton on June 1st to 9258.33 yuan/ton on June 10th, a decrease of 4.40%, and then rose to 9825.83 yuan/ton on June 24th, an increase of 6.13%. At the end of the month, there was a slight decline again. Overall, the DOP market fell by 0.69% in June. The price at the end of the month decreased by 2.61% year-on-year. The downstream market has slightly declined, and downstream customers’ enthusiasm for purchasing isooctanol has weakened.

Looking at the future market: In mid to early July, the domestic isooctanol market may experience a slight fluctuation and decline, with consolidation being the main trend. Upstream propylene prices have stabilized at high levels, with average cost support. Downstream DOP prices have shown a downward trend, and downstream manufacturers’ enthusiasm for purchasing isooctanol has weakened. Business Society Isooctanol analysts believe that in the short term, under the influence of various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials, the domestic isooctanol market may experience slight fluctuations

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, in early June, the average factory tax inclusive price of Shanxi’s light potassium carbonate was 8180.00 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, the average factory tax inclusive price of Shanxi’s light potassium carbonate was 7780.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.89%. The current price has decreased by 23.16% compared to last year.

Potassium carbonate

The price of potassium carbonate fell in June. From the above chart, it can be seen that the potassium carbonate market has been declining for three consecutive months recently. The overall market of raw material Potassium chloride is volatile and low, and the cost support is poor. The downstream market is just in need of procurement. Potassium carbonate manufacturers have a bearish mentality and the market is declining. According to statistics from Business Society, the mainstream factory quotation range for industrial grade potassium carbonate is around 7300-7800 yuan/ton recently (for reference only), and the quotation varies depending on the procurement situation.

According to the commodity analysis system of the business community, the overall market of Potassium chloride in June was in a volatile downward trend. Recently, the international market demand for Potassium chloride is insufficient, and the price shows a downward trend. The domestic Spot market of Potassium chloride was in general trading, and the price of Potassium chloride fell slightly in shock. The market of Potassium chloride is expected to consolidate at a low level in the future.

At present, the overall supply of imported potassium is sufficient, with poor cost support. Downstream purchasing is cautious, and it is expected that the price of potassium carbonate will mainly decline in the short term. The long-term market still needs to wait and see.

In June, the market of Polybutadiene was weak and consolidated. According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, as of June 26, the market price of Polybutadiene in East China was 10330 yuan/ton, down 0.86% slightly from 10420 at the beginning of the month, and the peak in the cycle was 10470 yuan/ton. The price of raw butadiene fell sharply, and the cost of Polybutadiene fell sharply; In June, the construction of downstream tire factories declined slightly, and Polybutadiene just needed support, but it was weaker than in the early stage; In June, the ex factory price of two barrels of oil Polybutadiene has remained stable since it was reduced by 300 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. As of June 26, the ex factory price of Daqing cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber of PetroChina Northeast Sales Company was 9900 yuan/ton, and the domestic offer range of Polybutadiene was 9700 yuan/ton to 10500 yuan/ton.

Supply side: In June, the Shunding device restarted and stopped simultaneously, with overall construction slightly higher than in the early stage; In early June, a total of 220000 tons/year units from Yanshan Petrochemical and Shandong Yihua were restarted and put into normal operation; In addition, the 160000 t/a Polybutadiene plant of Daqing Petrochemical was shut down for maintenance since June 10.

Cost: In June, the price of butadiene fell sharply, and the cost of Polybutadiene fell sharply. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of June 26th, the price of butadiene was 5873 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.17% from 6612 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

The natural rubber market rose slightly in June, slightly supporting Polybutadiene. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of June 26th, the price was 11850 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.16% from 11600 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

Demand side: The tire operating rate slightly decreased in June, which has a strong demand for rubber support but has weakened compared to the previous period. It is understood that as of late May 2023, the operating load of all steel tires for rubber tire enterprises in Shandong region is 5.9%; The operating load of semi steel tires in domestic rubber tire enterprises is 70%.

Future market forecast: business community analysts believe that the price of raw materials has declined significantly, the supply side is still under pressure, and the downstream construction has declined slightly. The Polybutadiene rubber industry chain showed a weak performance in June. It is expected that the Polybutadiene market will continue its weak consolidation trend in the short term.

This week (June 19-25, 2023), the performance of viscose staple fibers was mediocre, with manufacturers placing orders and prices basically maintaining. Despite weak demand, there was a strong wait-and-see mentality, and downstream procurement intentions were weak. Recently, except for some factories with inventory pressure, other manufacturers are relatively controllable. The price of raw material Dissolving pulp has weakened, and the overall cost support has weakened. The downstream cotton yarn trading has slowed down, and the production enthusiasm of the yarn factory is not high due to losses. The price is stable, and the overall operating load has a downward trend.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price center of viscose staple fiber remained stable this week (June 19-25, 2023). As of June 25, the domestic factory quotation for 1.2D * 38mm viscose staple fiber was 13240 yuan/ton, which is the same as last week’s price.

Raw material market

The price center of raw material Dissolving pulp is weakening. Domestic Dissolving pulp: two manufacturers in Shandong and Hunan produce broadleaf Dissolving pulp. The price of imported Dissolving pulp has been lowered. The transaction of broad-leaved Dissolving pulp is 870-880 dollars/ton, and that of coniferous Dissolving pulp is 880 dollars/ton.

Downstream cotton yarn market

The downstream demand for human cotton yarn is light, and the shipment of yarn factories is slowing down. The market is weakening, prices are stable, and transactions are average. The pressure on product inventory is gradually increasing, and the overall operating load is showing a downward trend. Under inventory pressure in some enterprises, there is a phenomenon of price reduction and promotion. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of June 25th, the average ex factory price of human cotton yarn (30S, ring spinning, first-class products) was 17450 yuan/ton, and the price was stable. At present, it is difficult for the demand in the textile terminal market to significantly improve, and yarn enterprises are also difficult to have a strong position. They often adjust their negotiation space based on their own shipment situation.

Future Market Forecast

The overall buying and selling atmosphere in the short-term market has limited improvement, as the new round of centralized order signing in the market ends. In the absence of significant improvement in terminal demand, the market will enter a wait-and-see adjustment period. Analysts from Business Society predict that the market for viscose staple fibers and rayon yarn will be weak and stable in the short term, with prices being mainly stable.

Recent price trends of urea

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic urea market price has slightly decreased this week, with urea prices dropping from 2313.75 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2210.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 4.48%. Weekend prices fell by 30.22% year-on-year. On June 18th, the urea commodity index was 102.79, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 32.52% from the cycle’s highest point of 152.33 points (2022-05-15), and an increase of 84.87% from the lowest point of 55.60 points on August 17th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Reduced cost support, insufficient downstream demand, and sufficient urea supply

From the supply side perspective, the mainstream price of urea in China has slightly decreased this week.

From the data of the upstream and downstream industry chains, it can be seen that there have been ups and downs in the urea upstream market this week. The price of liquefied natural gas has slightly increased, rising from 3750.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 4032.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 7.52%, and the weekend price has decreased by 36.62% year-on-year; The price of Anthracite dropped slightly. This weekend, the price of Anthracite (washing block) in Yangquan was 920 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan/ton; The price of liquid ammonia slightly decreased, dropping from 2916.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2816.67 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 3.43%. The weekend price fell by 43.36% year-on-year. Upstream raw material prices fluctuate, and there is insufficient support for urea prices. This week, the downstream price of melamine in urea stabilized at a low level, with a price of 6625.00 yuan/ton.

From a demand perspective: Agricultural demand has weakened, while industrial demand is average. The summer fertilizer season has not yet begun. The production of high nitrogen compound fertilizers has basically ended, and the operating rate of compound fertilizer plants has decreased, weakening the enthusiasm for urea procurement. Board and melamine enterprises generally start construction and mainly purchase on demand. From a supply perspective, some enterprises have started to resume production, with daily urea production ranging from 160000 to 170000 tons.

Small fluctuations and gains in the future market

In late June, the domestic urea market may experience a slight fluctuation and increase. Business Society urea analysts believe that the low level consolidation in the upstream of urea results in average support for urea costs. Starting from the peak season of downstream agriculture, agricultural demand increases while industrial demand is average. The daily production of urea is around 160000-170000 tons, with sufficient supply. In the future, urea may fluctuate and rise in a narrow range.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price trend of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid has remained stable this week. As of the weekend, the market price of hydrofluoric acid was 9657.14 yuan/ton, which is temporarily stable compared to the price of 9657.14 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, a year-on-year decrease of 17.18%.

Supply side: The price trend of hydrofluoric acid has been weak and stable this week. The mainstream price of hydrofluoric acid discussed by various regions in China is 9500-9900 yuan/ton. Recently, some devices are still in shutdown, but the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is sufficient, and the order situation of manufacturers for hydrofluoric acid is weak. As a result, the market trend of hydrofluoric acid remains weak.

Raw material side: The market price trend of raw material fluorite is temporarily stable, and as of the 16th, the average price of domestic fluorite is 3136.25 yuan/ton. Recently, the operating rate of domestic fluorite enterprises has slightly increased, and the spot supply of fluorite has increased. On the one hand, there is still tension in upstream mining, and outdated mines will continue to be phased out. In terms of adding new mines, mineral investigation work remains challenging. In addition, mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental requirements, making it more difficult to start fluorite mines. The shortage of raw materials has restricted fluorite enterprises from starting operations. On the other hand, the operating load of domestic hydrofluoric acid is around 60%, and there is still a rigid demand for fluorite procurement. Some hydrofluoric acid enterprises have reduced production, resulting in a weakened demand for raw material fluorite. However, due to the tight supply of raw materials, the fluorite market still has some support, and the price trend of fluorite is stable.

On the demand side: The downstream refrigerant product market of the terminal is sluggish, and the operating rate of the refrigerant industry remains low. Recently, there has been sufficient refrigerant supply, driving the domestic refrigerant R22 price to remain low. The load of refrigerant R22 manufacturers is not high, and the domestic market performance is weak. Inventory digestion is the main focus, and procurement demand has not yet been followed up. Domestic R134a manufacturers operate at low loads, and the price trend of R134a is weak and stable. Currently, on-demand procurement is the main trend, while downstream enterprises are not operating high. Traders have a strong wait-and-see attitude, and the demand for consumer orders has not yet warmed up. Market confidence is insufficient. Currently, the market quotation for refrigerant R134a is mostly in the range of 24000-25000 yuan/ton, and some enterprises have not resumed production. Demand orders are still small, and the market is stagnant and declining. Overall, the refrigerant market is not good, The operating rate is less than 30%, coupled with a decline in the export market, resulting in weak domestic and external demand. The refrigerant market is sluggish, and upstream raw material procurement is scarce. The hydrofluoric acid market remains low due to demand drag.

Future Market Forecast: In the short term, there will be little change in the raw material fluorite market, and the downstream refrigerant industry will remain sluggish. The refrigerant market is weak, and the purchase of hydrofluoric acid is light. In addition, the normal spot supply of hydrofluoric acid has affected the production of hydrofluoric acid enterprises, causing serious losses. Chen Ling, a hydrofluoric acid analyst at Business Society, believes that the market price trend of hydrofluoric acid will remain stable in the short term.

This week (6.5-6.12), the acrylonitrile market slightly declined. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of June 12th, the bulk water price in the acrylonitrile market was 8137 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.81% from last Monday’s 8287 yuan/ton. At present, the self pickup price of acrylonitrile in the market is between 7800 to 8200 yuan/ton. Low consolidation of raw material prices, weak support for acrylonitrile; The downstream atmosphere is weak, and prices have decreased slightly, while the demand for acrylonitrile continues to be weak; In addition, the supply side is still relatively loose, and the acrylonitrile market has slightly declined; But with the increase of parking companies, the downward trend of acrylonitrile has decreased.

This week (6.5-6.12), the domestic acrylonitrile operating rate slightly decreased, but the overall supply side remains loose. Anqing Petrochemical’s 210000 tons/year acrylonitrile unit will be shut down for defect elimination starting from June 5th.

Recently (6.5-6.12), the raw material propylene market has stabilized at a low level, and the cost support for acrylonitrile continues to be weak. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of June 12th, the domestic propylene price was 6255 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.24% from last Monday’s 6270 yuan/ton, and the cycle high was 6325 yuan/ton.

Downstream ABS prices have stabilized at a low level, but industry device starts continue to decline slightly to around 8.1%, and support for acrylonitrile demand continues to weaken; Domestic Nitrile rubber declined slightly, the price of polyacrylamide was adjusted at a low level, and the support for acrylonitrile was weak.

Future Market Forecast: Business Society Acrylonitrile Analysts believe that the current supply of acrylonitrile is still loose, coupled with continued weak demand and low cost consolidation, and it is expected that the acrylonitrile market will be weak and volatile in the short term; If parking and maintenance devices continue to increase in the later stage, the price of acrylonitrile may be expected to stop falling and rebound.

O-Xylene price stabilized this week

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, as of June 9, the price of O-Xylene was 8100 yuan/ton, which was more stable than that of O-Xylene on September 1 at the beginning of the month. The price of mixed xylene fell in shock, the downstream market of phthalic anhydride fell in shock, and the market of ortho benzene industry chain remained weak, but the price decline of mixed xylene and phthalic anhydride slowed down, the import of ortho benzene decreased, and the export volume increased. In June, the price of O-Xylene stabilized.

The raw material mixed xylene market fluctuated and fell in June

According to the market analysis system of mixed xylene products in the Business Society, as of June 9th, the price of mixed xylene was 7360 yuan/ton, a decrease of 110 yuan/ton or 1.47% compared to the price of 7470 yuan/ton as of May 31st last month. In June, the price of mixed xylene fluctuated and fell, the decline of mixed xylene slowed down, and the downward pressure of O-Xylene market weakened.

Downstream phthalic anhydride market fluctuates and falls

According to the analysis system of the market for phthalic anhydride products in the Business Society, as of June 9th, the quotation for phthalic anhydride in neighboring countries was 7687.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.38% compared to the price of 7875 yuan/ton as of May 31st last month. In June, the price of phthalic anhydride fell in shock, but the decline of phthalic anhydride slowed down, the export of phthalic anhydride increased, the price of nefa phthalic anhydride stopped falling and rose, and the upward momentum of O-Xylene market remained.

Weakening imports and increasing exports

According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs, the import volume of O-Xylene from January to April was 28027575 kg, with a year-on-year decrease in the import volume. The export volume of O-Xylene from January to April was 25565258 kg, with a year-on-year increase in the export volume. The import of ortho benzene has weakened and the export has increased. The demand support for ortho benzene still exists, and the downward pressure on ortho benzene has weakened.

Future prospects

Analysts of O-Xylene data from the business agency believe that the prices of mixed xylene and phthalic anhydride dropped in June, but the decline of mixed xylene and phthalic anhydride slowed down, and the industrial chain of o-xylene remained weak. O-Xylene imports decreased and exports increased, while O-Xylene support remained. In the future, the price decline of mixed xylene and phthalic anhydride slowed down, the import of O-Xylene weakened and the export increased, the demand support for o-xylene remained, and the downward pressure on o-xylene weakened. It is expected that the price of o-xylene in the future will stabilize.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the East China region’s 1 # tin ingot market fluctuated and rose this week (5.26-6.2). On May 26th, the average market price was 199310 yuan/ton, and on June 2nd, the average market price was 209810 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 5.27%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the monthly K-bar chart, it can be seen that after November 2022, tin prices have risen continuously for three months due to macroeconomic factors. Since February 2023, the price has dropped by 11.35% per month, and the trend of tin prices has fluctuated narrowly in the past three months. From the weekly K-bar chart, it can be seen that the tin ingot market has been rising for two consecutive weeks.

The futures market fluctuated and rose this week, with a surge of 2.96% on the 29th and another increase of 2.91% on the 30th, laying the foundation for the upward trend of Shanghai Tin this week. The latest statistical data shows that the production of refined tin in May slightly increased compared to April. However, since late May, large-scale smelting enterprises in the southwest region have entered maintenance, and the start of production has significantly decreased. Under the influence of production reduction news, tin prices have led the week’s upward trend. Therefore, the market expects tin production to decline in June. There has been no substantial improvement in demand recently, mainly due to news factors such as the rise of the semiconductor industry and the release of purchasing intentions from some solder companies, which has strengthened market expectations for the future of semiconductors and boosted market sentiment. But from the current market perspective, the actual demand has not been released. Overall, downstream demand is still relatively weak, and it is expected to operate mainly weakly. In the short term, the impact of domestic supply and demand on tin prices remains limited, and in the future, it is still necessary to focus on the impact of domestic and foreign macro factors on the market.

On June 2, 2023, the London Metal Exchange (LME) tin warehouse held 1970 tons, which remained unchanged (in tons)

On June 4th, the base metal index stood at 1166 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 27.85% from the cycle’s highest point of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 81.62% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

According to the price monitoring of the Business Society, there were a total of 7 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that rose month on month on the list of commodity prices in the 22nd week of 2023 (5.29-6.2), with silver (4.34%), praseodymium oxide (4.04%), and tin (3.50%) ranking among the top 3 commodities. There are a total of 8 products that have decreased compared to the previous month, with the top 3 products falling respectively being magnesium (-3.98%), praseodymium neodymium oxide (-2.49%), and dysprosium oxide (-2.35%). This week’s average increase or decrease was 0.06%.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the asphalt market has been fluctuating and organized. From May 29th to June 2nd, the price of asphalt in Shandong region increased from 3771 yuan/ton to 3784 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.35%, a month on month decrease of 0.58%, and a year-on-year decrease of 19.50%. Recently, international crude oil has been operating weakly, coupled with rainfall in various regions, resulting in slightly flat demand and limited support for spot asphalt prices. There are differences in the situation of local refining, and the prices are mixed.

On the supply side, according to the commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, the total weekly production of asphalt is 579000 tons, an increase of 28000 tons compared to the previous month. The supply side is affected by negative factors.

Cost and crude oil: the market is worried about whether the US Congress will pass the US debt ceiling agreement, overlapping the internal differences of oil producing countries OEPC+, and the oil market is under pressure. On June 2nd, the benchmark price of Brent crude oil for Business Society was 72.60 US dollars per barrel, while the benchmark price of WTI crude oil was 68.09 US dollars per barrel. The cost side of the domestic oil industry chain is influenced by bearish factors.

On the demand side, the demand for asphalt in the market is relatively flat, with varying demand in different regions. Some regions consume early stage resources, while rainfall in some regions leads to a decrease in downstream operating rates and a decrease in asphalt consumption. The overall demand side of the asphalt market is biased towards bearish effects.

As of the close of June 2nd, the petroleum asphalt futures market has risen. The main asphalt contract 2308 was opened at 3645 yuan/ton, with a maximum price of 3719 yuan/ton and a minimum price of 3620 yuan/ton. It closed at 3710 yuan/ton, up 92% or 2.54% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 219779 lots, a holding volume of 129854 lots, and a daily increase of -12286 lots.

It is predicted that the supply will continue to rise and the market price will remain stable in the future. Downstream demand is weak and actual demand is weak. Business Society asphalt analysts predict that the domestic asphalt market will be mainly weak in the short term.