In August, the domestic polycrystalline silicon market continued its upward trend in late July, with continuous growth. Due to the easing of market supply and demand pressure, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, polycrystalline silicon rose by 4.26% in August. As of the end of the month, the mainstream range of single crystal dense materials with a model of primary solar energy level has been maintained at 70-85000 yuan/ton.

On the supply side, silicon material manufacturers have experienced a decline in production, mainly due to the significant impact of centralized power restrictions on manufacturers’ devices in August, leading to the shutdown of some devices and a certain impact on production. In addition, although the new production capacity of silicon materials has been gradually released, the increment is limited, and the overall inventory is at a low level; The silicon material remained relatively tight throughout August, which is also the main reason why silicon material prices can continue to rise. Due to timely replenishment of downstream silicon wafers, the performance of manufacturers in signing orders is optimistic; Downstream silicon wafers have seen a rebound in demand for silicon materials. The easing of supply pressure is the main reason why silicon material prices have bottomed out.

On the demand side, the market demand gradually followed up in August, and the downstream silicon wafer operating rate remained high, supporting the demand for silicon materials. Especially though there are high temperature power restrictions in summer, the actual output impact is not significant for silicon wafer manufacturers. The operating rate of silicon wafer enterprises is relatively stable, which brings benefits to silicon material procurement. The quotation for silicon wafers has been repeatedly raised, with the price of single crystal M10 rising from 2.95 yuan at the beginning of the month to 3.35 yuan at the end of the month, and G12 single crystal silicon wafers rising from 3.9 yuan to 4.35 yuan. But in the future, the trend of increasing silicon wafer inventory may create constraints on prices in the short term; From the perspective of terminal demand, there is no significant increase in the procurement demand for silicon wafers in the battery and component sectors; This may result in the price increase of silicon material being difficult to maintain for too long.

Future forecast: The supply of silicon materials in the market will remain reasonable and stable in the near future, but there is also a risk of inventory accumulation in the future as the release of new production capacity increases. Moreover, there has not been much improvement in demand, so the tight supply of silicon materials may gradually ease, and there is little possibility of a retaliatory rebound in the future. Polycrystalline silicon analysts from Business Society believe that prices are expected to maintain a narrow adjustment pattern in the near future.

On August 30, 2023, the cash and tax inclusive prices of magnesium ingots (99.9%, non pickling, simple packaging) from various main production areas in China have been running smoothly, with an overall range of 22500 to 22800 yuan/ton. Real order negotiations are the main focus.

The specific price ranges for each region are as follows:

Ex-factory spot exchange including tax in Fugu area is 22500-22600 yuan/ton; Current exchange in Taiyuan area is 22600-22700 yuan/ton; The spot exchange in Wenxi area is 22700-22800 yuan/ton; The current exchange in Ningxia is 22500-22600 yuan/ton.

Magnesium ingots are native magnesium ingots according to the national standard (GB/T3499-2011); Non acid washed, non wooden pallets and non paid acceptance price, with actual order negotiation as the main approach.

Overview of the trend of metal magnesium in August

In August, the magnesium ingot market was relatively strong, with an increase of 7.24%. Follow up on downstream demand in August, with active inquiries for overseas orders. The factory has low inventory and insufficient production in the main production area, resulting in magnesium factories quoting too high.

In terms of factories, they have a strong mentality of being reluctant to sell at a high price. At present, there is no inventory pressure in the factory, and the resumption of production by manufacturers in the Fugu area is uncertain. With the support of downstream procurement, the magnesium factory’s quotation is mainly stable.

In terms of demand, as the summer break abroad is coming to an end, foreign trade demand has followed up, and some domestic orders that are just needed have also followed up one after another. However, the demand support is insufficient, and in the face of recent fluctuations in the market for magnesium ingots, the main focus is still on wait-and-see sentiment. Especially at the end of the month, the fear of high sentiment among downstream customers has become more prominent, making it increasingly difficult for magnesium factories to ship at high prices.

In terms of raw materials, in August, the cost pressure on blue charcoal enterprises continued, and the bottom support strengthened. The enterprise began to continue its previous loss state, coupled with the decrease in the price of medium temperature coal tar, and the blue charcoal market was relatively strong. Starting from the 28th, the coal mines in Yuyang District, Yulin City were ordered to suspend production for rectification, and coal mine safety supervision became stricter. Some coal mines will reduce or suspend production, and coal supply may contract. It is expected that there will be slight fluctuations in the price of blue charcoal in the short term.

In August, the ferrosilicon market was first strong and then weak. On August 30th, the market quotation for ferrosilicon (grade: FeSi75-B; particle size grade/mm: natural block) in Ningxia was around 6750-6800 yuan/ton, with an average market price of 6778 yuan/ton, a monthly increase of 0.11%. The short-term supply of ferrosilicon is difficult to improve, but with cost support, the price of ferrosilicon remains stable.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, given the uncertainty of the current resumption of production time for magnesium factories, each factory maintains low inventory, and manufacturers have strong prices. However, the follow-up of downstream transactions is insufficient, and the market lacks positive factors to support it. It is expected that the short-term price of magnesium ingots will be weak and stable, and the market transaction situation will be closely monitored in the future.

1、 Price trend

Taking the sulfuric acid based rutile titanium dioxide powder, which has a large sales volume in the domestic market, as an example, according to data monitoring by Business Society, the average price of domestic titanium dioxide powder on August 1st was 16000 yuan/ton, and on August 29th it was 16700 yuan/ton. The monthly price increase was 4.38%.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of titanium dioxide increased in August. The increase in domestic trade prices is mostly between 700 to 1000 yuan/ton yuan/ton, while the increase in export prices is around 100 to 130 dollars/ton. At present, the international foreign trade order situation is good, the domestic terminal market is improving, and the downstream demand for titanium dioxide is increasing. The market trading sentiment is active. Up to now, most domestic quotations for rutile titanium dioxide are between 16200-17900 yuan/ton; The quotation for anatase titanium dioxide is around 13800-14500 yuan/ton.

In terms of titanium concentrate, the price of titanium concentrate in the Panxi region continued to rise in August. At present, there is not much inventory on the market, and the spot supply in the market continues to be tight. Downstream titanium dioxide enterprises have active trading activities, with good trading performance in the titanium concentrate market and strong quotations. As of now, the tax-free quotation for grade 38 42 titanium ore is around 1580-1600 yuan/ton, the tax-free quotation for grade 46 10 titanium concentrate is around 2250 yuan/ton, and the quotation for grade 47 20 titanium concentrate is around 2300-2460 yuan/ton. In the short term, the market price of titanium concentrate is mainly stable and the actual transaction price is negotiable.

In terms of sulfuric acid, the domestic sulfuric acid market price surged in August. According to data monitoring by Business Society, the average price of domestic sulfuric acid on August 1st was 160 yuan/ton, and on August 29th it was 294 yuan/ton. The monthly price increase was 83.75%. The upstream sulfur market has recently stabilized at a high level, with good cost support. The downstream market for hydrofluoric acid and titanium dioxide is on the rise, and downstream customers have a good enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid. Duo Zhong Li is good, and the product trend is upward. In the future, it is expected that the domestic sulfuric acid market price may fluctuate slightly, with an average market price of around 310 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society titanium dioxide analysts believe that this month, the price of titanium concentrate in the Panxi region has increased, and the sulfuric acid market prices have skyrocketed, providing strong support for the cost of titanium dioxide. Downstream demand for titanium dioxide has improved, and market trading sentiment is active. Recently, dragon companies have taken the lead in raising prices, while other companies have gradually followed suit, boosting current market confidence and slightly tightening spot prices. It is expected that the trend of titanium dioxide powder will be mainly strong in the short term, depending on downstream market demand. The actual transaction price is negotiated separately.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, at the beginning of the month, the average ex factory tax price of Shanxi’s light potassium carbonate was 7340.00 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, the average ex factory tax price of Shanxi’s light potassium carbonate was 7270.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.95%. The lowest point was the average price of 7110.00 yuan/ton on August 11, a decrease of 3.27% compared to the beginning of the month, and the current price has decreased by 27.37% compared to last year.

Potassium carbonate

The price of potassium carbonate fell first and then rose in August. From the above chart, it can be seen that the potassium carbonate market has been declining for three consecutive months, with a rebound at the end of this month. The raw material potassium chloride rose at the end of the month, providing good cost support. Potassium carbonate followed the cost increase and the market bottomed out and rebounded. According to statistics from Business Society, the mainstream factory quotation range for industrial grade potassium carbonate is around 7000-7700 yuan/ton recently (for reference only), and the quotation varies depending on the procurement situation.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of the Business Society, the overall trend of potassium chloride market in August was first downward and then upward. Domestic potassium: The market price of 60% crystal is mostly between 2400-2550 yuan/ton (increased by 50 yuan/ton), while the port price of 62% white potassium is around 2700-2750 yuan/ton (increased by 100 yuan/ton); 60% of the large particles in the port are around 2700-2750; Border trade areas: 62% of Russian white potassium prices are mostly between 2400-2450 yuan/ton; Qinghai 60% white potassium arrives at the station at around 2800. Analysts from the Business Society believe that domestic potassium chloride import prices may slightly increase in the short term<

At present, the border trade has not yet arrived, and the domestic potassium chloride market has a tight supply of goods. Potassium chloride is expected to rise, with good cost support. It is expected that the price of potassium carbonate will mainly rise in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price trend of the domestic heavy rare earth market has increased. On August 24, the rare earth index was 486 points, a decrease of 51.74% from the highest point in the cycle of 1007 points (2022-02-24), and an increase of 79.34% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present)

The price trend of domestic dysprosium oxide, dysprosium iron alloy, and metal dysprosium has increased. As of the 25th, the price of dysprosium oxide was 2.43 million yuan/ton, with a price increase of 3.40% this week; The price of dysprosium iron alloy is 2.395 million yuan/ton, with a price increase of 5.27% this week; The price of dysprosium metal is 2.98 million yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.71% this week; The domestic price of terbium series is mainly increasing, with the domestic price of terbium oxide reaching 7.95 million yuan/ton and the price of metallic terbium reaching 9.85 million yuan/ton.

Recently, the price trend in the heavy rare earth market has increased. Due to the impact of high temperatures and rainfall, some rare earth mining enterprises have limited production, and some rare earth manufacturers have voluntarily reduced production, which has led to a decrease in spot inventory in the market. Separation plants and metal plants in Sichuan region will have varying degrees of production reduction and shutdown behavior, and the rare earth market price trend will rise due to supply reduction. Although Myanmar has reopened its gates, the growth in import sources is limited, coupled with an increase in downstream procurement intentions, resulting in a slight increase in rare earth market transactions. Positive factors support the upward trend of domestic heavy rare earth prices.

According to statistics, in July, the production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 805000 and 780000 units respectively, with a month on month increase of 2.8% in production and a month on month decrease of 3.2% in sales, with year-on-year growth of 30.6% and 31.6%, respectively. From January to July, the production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 4.591 million and 4.526 million respectively, with year-on-year growth of 40% and 41.7%, respectively. The country is accelerating the construction of charging infrastructure to better support the entry of new energy vehicles into rural areas, which is conducive to unleashing the consumption potential of rural areas, increasing the sales of new energy vehicles, and increasing the production and sales of new energy vehicles, which is beneficial for the domestic rare earth market prices.

After years of governance, the domestic rare earth industry has gradually formed a supply pattern with large groups as the main body and relatively concentrated raw materials. With the continuous development of the foreign rare earth industry, China’s share of rare earth production has decreased from 90% to 70%. According to statistics, China’s rare earth export volume in July was 5425.6 tons; From January to July, the cumulative total export volume of rare earths from China was 31661.6 tons, a year-on-year increase of 6%. The export volume of rare earth commodities from China increased, which to some extent supported the prices of the rare earth market.

Future Market Forecast: In the near future, the supply of rare earth production enterprises will gradually recover, and downstream demand will be mainly based on demand procurement. It is expected that the high price fluctuations in the heavy rare earth market will be the main trend in the short term. In the medium to long term, there will be a lack of primary and renewable supply sources, and dysprosium and terbium oxides will also face shortages. In addition, driven by emerging and traditional demands such as energy-saving motors, industrial robots, wind power, variable frequency air conditioning, and consumer electronics, The global demand for rare earth permanent magnets is expected to continue to grow.

Commodity Market: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, in mid August, the mainstream market of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cationic, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in China stabilized first and then slightly declined. On the 11th, the market reported around 14171 yuan/ton, and on the 20th, it reported around 14157 yuan/ton, with a ten-day decline of only 0.1%. Due to the impact of special disasters and logistics restrictions, as well as the recent rise in crude oil, the prices of various raw materials have increased this week. Although the focus of the raw material acrylonitrile and acrylic acid market continues to shift upwards, and the cost of polyacrylamide has increased, the main production area enterprises are operating normally, the market supply is abundant, downstream demand is weak and logistics is limited, and commodity circulation is slow. The mainstream market of polyacrylamide is slightly weak.

Raw material acrylonitrile: According to the commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, the acrylonitrile market continued to decline slightly in mid August. On the 11th, the mainstream market quotation was 8400 yuan/ton, and on the 20th, the main market quotation was 8312 yuan/ton, with a ten-day decrease of 1.04%. The slight increase in raw material prices still provides cost support for acrylonitrile; Downstream construction has slightly increased compared to the early stage, and the demand for acrylonitrile has slightly increased compared to the early stage; The increase in the operation of acrylonitrile units has a certain negative impact on acrylonitrile. Overall, it is expected that the market price of acrylonitrile will fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term.

Raw Material Acrylic Acid: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the acrylic acid market remained stable and slightly upward in mid August. As of the 20th of this month, the average price of acrylic acid in East China was 6312 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.4% compared to the price of 6287 yuan/ton on the first day. The raw material propylene (Shandong) market has fluctuated slightly this week, with cost support still remaining and supply and demand support temporarily stable. The market has a strong wait-and-see mentality, and it is expected that the acrylic acid market may stabilize and operate in the short term, and more market news guidance is needed.

Liquefied natural gas for production. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, in mid August, the domestic liquefied natural gas market first leveled off, then rose and then leveled off: on August 11th, the average price of liquefied natural gas in China was 3640 yuan/ton, and on August 20th, the market reported a main price of 3772 yuan/ton, with a ten-day increase of 3.63%. Recently, the domestic liquefied natural gas market has shown a stable upward trend.

Future forecast: In mid August, the center of gravity of raw material prices will decrease, and the fuel market will fluctuate slightly, with weak support for polyacrylamide costs. On the supply side, enterprises in the main production area have normal production and sufficient market supply; On the demand side, downstream procurement and supply remain flat, and market transactions are stable. The impact of natural disasters weakened in the middle of the year, and the polyacrylamide market remained stable and slightly weakened. It is expected that the future market will remain stable and dominated.

Recent trends in sulfuric acid prices

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic sulfuric acid market prices have significantly increased this week, with sulfuric acid prices increasing from 210.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 252.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 20.00%. Weekend prices fell by 36.04% year-on-year.

The upstream market has significantly increased, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is good

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream domestic sulfuric acid manufacturers have significantly increased this week, with average inventory levels among manufacturers.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industry chains, the upstream sulfur market continues to rise, with sulfur prices rising from 1013.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 1053.33 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 3.95%. Over the weekend, prices fell by 8.67% year-on-year. The upstream market has slightly increased, and cost support has increased. The downstream hydrofluoric acid market slightly increased, with the market price rising from 9483.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 9566.67 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 0.88%. Weekend prices fell 6.34% year-on-year. The downstream titanium dioxide market slightly increased, with market prices rising from 16000.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 16116.67 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 0.73%. Weekend prices fell by 9.54% year-on-year. The downstream market has slightly increased, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is good.

Small fluctuations and gains in the future market

In late August, the domestic sulfuric acid market may experience slight fluctuations and gains. The downstream titanium dioxide and hydrofluoric acid markets have slightly increased, and downstream customers have increased their enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid. The upstream sulfur market has continued to rise recently, with good cost support. Under the contradiction between supply and demand, the product trend is upward. Business Society sulfuric acid analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic sulfuric acid market is mainly affected by various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials, and the sulfuric acid market price may fluctuate slightly.

Price trend

This week, the domestic EVA market remained stable, with spot prices hovering at high levels. According to data monitoring from Business Society, as of August 18th, the average factory price of EVA in China was 14000 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.69% compared to the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

The domestic EVA market remained stable and weak this week. On the supply side, the operating rate of the EVA industry remains at last week’s level, with an overall load position of around 75%. The market supply is relatively low, and factory inventory pressure is not significant. The profitability of EVA polymerization plants fluctuates broadly within a narrow range, while factory prices remain stable. The social inventory pressure is average, and the confidence of traders is supported by aggregation factories and tends to be stable. On the demand side, the current demand side has loosened its support for the EVA price market compared to the previous period. The demand for photovoltaic materials is still acceptable, and the phased stocking of terminal enterprises has not yet ended, which clearly supports the market. The follow-up of foam materials towards terminal enterprises lags behind, resulting in low actual prices and consumption maintaining at off-season levels, dragging down the overall demand side of EVA. The overall stocking operation on the market is weaker than last week, and companies have had a poor acceptance of high priced goods this week, with prices mainly operating horizontally.

Overall, the supply of EVA in the market remained stable this week, with downstream demand still being driven by the main force of photovoltaic technology. Overall, companies mainly offer stable prices, with merchants following the market, and some offers showing signs of looseness. The continuous poor demand for foaming has dragged down the overall market. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic EVA market may experience fluctuations due to weakened demand.

This week (8.14-8.17), the epoxy propane market remained stable and declined. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of August 17th, the average price of epoxy propane enterprises was 9425.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.31% compared to Monday’s price. On August 17th, the mainstream quotation in the Shandong epoxy propane market was around 9100-9200 yuan/ton.

Cost side: Recently, the price of raw material propylene has fluctuated slightly. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the reference price of propylene on August 16 was 6800.75, an increase of 1.3% compared to August 1 (6713.25). The raw material liquid chlorine is operating at a high level, and the cost has some support for the epoxy propane market.

Supply and demand side: Recently, some supply side devices have been repaired, and factory shipments have been average. Downstream follow-up has decreased, and some inventory has been slightly under pressure. High end negotiations in the market are weak, and some companies have lowered their prices.

The epoxy propane analyst at Business Society believes that there is still cost support, and downstream companies just need to follow up in an appropriate amount. With a strong wait-and-see mentality, it is expected that the epoxy propane market may weaken and stabilize in the short term, and more attention needs to be paid to market news guidance.

According to data monitored by the Business Society, as of August 14th, the average price quoted by domestic premium DMF enterprises was 4700 yuan/ton. This week, the DMF price rose narrowly, rising by 0.53% in one week. Currently, the mainstream price is around 4700 yuan/ton.

This week, the overall DMF market saw a narrow upward trend, with prices increasing by 0.53% compared to the same period last week. Currently, the mainstream price range is 4700.00 yuan/ton, and the downstream procurement atmosphere is average. The upstream cost support is insufficient, and shipments are slow. Manufacturers are giving up profits and taking orders, resulting in high inventory levels.

Chemical Index: On August 13th, the chemical index stood at 874 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 37.57% from the cycle’s highest point of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and an increase of 46.15% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

Business Society DMF analysts believe that in the short term, the DMF market will operate steadily with a stronger trend.