Price trend

The recent trend of the domestic PA66 market has remained negative. According to data monitoring from Business News Agency, the benchmark price of domestic PA66 was 18833.33 yuan/ton on July 21, a decrease of -4.24% compared to the price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

This week, the PA66 market continued its previous weak trend, and overall, spot prices of various brands continued to decline. In terms of supply, the overall load of the domestic PA66 industry is currently maintained at around 65%, a narrow increase compared to the previous period. Some production lines of enterprises are only resuming work, and the on-site supply of goods is still relatively sufficient, so the supply side’s support for spot goods is average. Poor digestion in terms of inventory, negative corporate confidence, and cautious pricing operations. Upstream, the domestic market of Hexamethylenediamine is weak. Adipic acid market rose, with both pure benzene and Cyclohexanone as raw materials during the week, and Adipic acid kept up. However, due to the price fluctuation in the early stage, the current Adipic acid has no obvious profit on the spot of PA66. PA66 raw material side has poor support for spot goods, and the demand situation is weak and stable. Terminal enterprises mainly rely on goods to maintain production, and buyers generally resist high priced sources of goods. It is expected that PA66 may continue its weak consolidation in the short term.

Future Market Forecast

This week, the spot price of PA66 is mainly down. The price trend of the raw material side is acceptable, but the support for the cost side of PA66 is average. The load of PA66 enterprise is maintained, and there is no significant improvement in supply support. The demand side takes goods to maintain production, and it is expected that PA66 may maintain a weak and vulnerable market in the short term.

Precious metal prices rose in July

Precious metal prices rose in July. According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the price of gold in the Spot market will be 454.47 yuan/g on July 14, 2023, up 1.31% from 448.60 yuan/g in the Spot market at the beginning of the month (July 1)

Silver fell back to the beginning of the month

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the average price of silver in the market will be 5808 yuan/kg on July 14, 2023, up 6.92% from 5432.33 yuan/kg at the beginning of the month (July 1).

Summary of Price Trends of Precious Metals and Crude Oil

In the early stage, the correlation between precious metals and crude oil trends is strong. After the second half of 2022, precious metal prices have bottomed out and stabilized, and the magnitude of macro factors affecting them has begun to show differentiation. The trend of precious metals and crude oil began to converge in late March, but after mid April, the trend began to diverge again. Mainly due to the increased impact of risk aversion on the rise of precious metal prices. Recently, crude oil prices have rebounded, and precious metal prices have also followed suit.

Comparison of precious metal gold and silver price trends in the past year

In 2022, the rise and fall trends of precious metal gold and silver have converged, but the decline in silver was deeper from April to August, and the recent recovery has been more significant. In December, silver continued its strong trend last month, and gold began to consolidate at high levels. In 2023, precious metal gold and silver have consolidated at high levels, with a slight decline in February. Since March, precious metal prices have started to rise. Silver prices began to decline in May, while gold remained relatively strong. In June, gold prices reached a high level and silver prices began to rise.

Policy Fundamentals Data

Data shows that the US consumer price index recorded its smallest annual increase in more than two years in June, prompting traders to bet that the Federal Reserve may end the current rate hike cycle after raising interest rates this month. Before the data was released, CME Federal Reserve observation showed that the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged from 5.00% to 5.25% in July was 7.6%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points to the range of 5.25% to 5.50% was 92.4%; The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged by September is 6.1%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point increase is 75.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point increase is 18.5%. After the data was released, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged from 5.00% to 5.25% in July is 10.1%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points to the range of 5.25% to 5.50% is 89.9%; The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged by September is 8.9%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point increase is 80.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point increase is 10.8%.

noble metal

At present, the price of precious metals has been fluctuating in the high range after hitting a 10-year high in the early stage. In the early stage, we expected that under the high inflation and high interest rate hikes, the pace of overseas economic recession may lead to a relatively strong sense of risk aversion, which is currently reflected in prices. Some central banks around the world increased their holdings of Gold reserve, which also formed some support for gold prices.

It is expected that the price of precious metals will fluctuate strongly and consolidate in July, with a bullish outlook in the medium to long term.

According to the price monitoring data of Business Society, as of July 14, 2023, the reference price of domestic n-propanol was 7766 yuan/ton. Compared with July 7, 2023 (reference price of n-propanol was 7833 yuan/ton), the price was reduced by 67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.85%.

From the data monitoring chart of Business Society, it can be seen that this week (7.7-7.14), the overall market situation of domestic n-propanol showed a slight decline. This week, some suppliers of n-propanol in Shandong region have lowered their outbound prices of n-propanol by a narrow margin, around 100-200 yuan/ton. The main factors affecting the narrow decline in market prices are small price adjustments by some factories and adjustments made by some suppliers based on their own inventory and shipment situation. As of July 14th, the market price of n-propanol in the Shandong region of China is around 7000-7500 yuan/ton, and the higher price is around 7800 yuan/ton. The market for n-propanol in Nanjing is relatively stable. Distributors in different regions still have reservations about prices, and the difficulty in monitoring prices may lead to differences in specific negotiation situations. Each region also has differences, and actual negotiations are the main focus.

Prediction of the Future Market Trend of n-propanol

At present, the overall trading atmosphere in the n-propanol market is relatively quiet, and downstream users continue to focus on just in demand procurement. According to the n-propanol data analyst at the Business Society, in the short term, the domestic n-propanol market is mainly subject to narrow adjustment and operation, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

In the first half of 2023, the market price of hydrofluoric acid significantly decreased. At the beginning of the year, the price was 12500 yuan/ton, and at the middle of the year, the price was 9657.14 yuan/ton. The decline in the first half of the year was 22.74%. In the first half of the year, the market price of hydrofluoric acid decreased more or less, and from March to April, the price of hydrofluoric acid increased, while prices in other months decreased to varying degrees.

The trend of the hydrofluoric acid market in the first half of the year is mainly divided into three stages: the rapid decline in domestic hydrofluoric acid prices from January to February, the slight recovery in the hydrofluoric acid market from March to April, and the further decline in hydrofluoric acid prices from May to June:

The domestic price of hydrofluoric acid rapidly declined from January to February. At this stage, the price of hydrofluoric acid has dropped from 12500 yuan/ton to 9828.57 yuan/ton, with a decrease of up to 21.37%. The main influencing factor is the sharp supply-demand contradiction. At this stage, the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is very sufficient, even if some units in the north stop, the demand for downstream refrigerants is very low due to the holiday around the Spring Festival, resulting in poor delivery of hydrofluoric acid, frequent inventory accumulation by manufacturers, and a significant decrease in hydrofluoric acid prices. On the other hand, the price trend of raw material fluorite at this stage has declined, and the cost support has declined, which is also a major bearish factor in the hydrofluoric acid market. In addition, the refrigerant industry is sluggish, procurement demand is poor, and multiple bearish factors are combined, resulting in a significant decline in the hydrofluoric acid market from January to February.

The hydrofluoric acid market slightly rebounded from March to April. At this stage, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market has slightly increased, with prices rising from 9828.57 yuan/ton to 10357.14 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.38%. On the one hand, the rise in raw material fluorite prices is driving the situation. At this stage, due to environmental requirements and mining accidents, the domestic spot supply of fluorite is very tight, and the price trend of fluorite is rising. On the other hand, the refrigerant market is on the rise. March April is the peak period for the refrigerant industry to stock up, and the demand for upstream hydrofluoric acid procurement has increased. Affected by the positive support from upstream and downstream, the hydrofluoric acid market has rebounded.

The price of hydrofluoric acid fell again from May to June. Due to weaker demand, the price of hydrofluoric acid has declined again, with the market price dropping from 10357.14 yuan/ton to 9657.14 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.76%. At this stage, the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is still sufficient, and manufacturers’ orders for hydrofluoric acid are weak. However, the price of raw fluorite is at a high level, and the downstream refrigerant season is not strong. The demand for hydrofluoric acid is not good, resulting in severe losses for hydrofluoric acid production enterprises. Some enterprises choose to stop and respond due to the impact of losses. Anhydrous hydrofluoric acid starts at around 60%, and some enterprises have increased inventory. Negative factors have affected the decline of the hydrofluoric acid market.

From the perspective of the fluorine chemical industry chain, due to safety, environmental protection and other reasons, upstream mining of fluorite is still tight, and backward mines will continue to be phased out. The shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises, which supports the fluorite market price, and the decrease in fluorite is relatively small. However, as the industry with the largest proportion of downstream applications in the fluorine chemical industry, refrigerant market prices have been sluggish. In the first half of the year, there was a rapid drop in production during the peak season, which caused many concerns and concerns in the market. Under the combined influence of high raw materials and poor demand, hydrofluoric acid enterprises have been struggling to survive, and most of them have suffered losses.

In the short term, the market for raw material fluorite has slightly declined, and with the end of the peak season in the downstream refrigerant industry, refrigerant production has shown a downward trend. Regarding the decrease in hydrofluoric acid procurement, high inventory of hydrofluoric acid, resonance between high raw material demand and poor demand, Chen Ling, a hydrofluoric acid analyst at Business Society, believes that the recovery of the hydrofluoric acid market is hopeless in the short term. As the weather cools down in the fourth quarter, the price of raw material fluorite will increase, and cost support will be more obvious at that time, The hydrofluoric acid market may experience an increase in the fourth quarter.

Commodity Market: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, in early July, the mainstream market price of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cationic, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in China slightly fluctuated and decreased. On the first day, the market reported around 14371 yuan/ton, and on the 10th, it reported around 14285 yuan/ton, a decrease of only 0.6%. Recently, the price of acrylic acid has increased, and some enterprises of polyacrylamide have seen some price increases. Based on the overall market supply situation, some enterprises have reduced their production capacity due to the impact of high temperatures. However, the current market supply is sufficient, mainly due to average downstream demand and weak supply and demand, and the mainstream market continues to be weak.

As shown in the figure, in the early third quarter of 2023, China’s polyacrylamide market remained stable with a slight decline, which was amplified compared to the decline in June.

Raw material acrylonitrile: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the market price of acrylonitrile in early July increased slightly by 2.38% from 7887 yuan/ton to 8075 yuan/ton. After a slight increase in the raw material propylene market, it slightly declined, and downstream consumers showed resistance to high market prices. In order to stimulate sales, market prices shifted from rising to falling, which weakened their support for the cost of acrylonitrile; Multiple downstream industries of acrylonitrile face weak demand support in the short term, which is difficult to improve; In addition, the supply side is still relatively loose, and the acrylonitrile market is mainly volatile and consolidation in the short term.

Raw Material Acrylic Acid: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the acrylic acid market slightly increased in early July, from 6012 yuan/ton to 6175 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.7%. Recently, the market price of raw material propylene has slightly decreased, and the cost support has weakened. With the support of some equipment maintenance and supply constraints, acrylic acid companies have steadily increased their quotations, and downstream inquiries have increased their enthusiasm. However, the purchasing mentality is still cautious, and the main focus is on following up in an appropriate amount. It is expected that the acrylic acid market will undergo mild consolidation and operation in the short term, and more market news guidance is needed.

Liquefied natural gas for production. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic liquefied natural gas market rose first and then slightly in early July. Among them, the average price of liquefied natural gas in China on the 1st was 4296 yuan/ton, and on the 10th it was 4066 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.35% in ten days.

Future forecast: There will be a slight increase in raw material prices in the near future, while the fuel market is relatively weak, and the cost of polyacrylamide raw materials will rise to a certain extent. However, due to the abundant supply of goods in the market and the continued low prosperity of the water treatment industry, downstream demand is poor, resulting in poor market transactions; High temperatures have a certain impact on factory operations, but with production and inventory, market supply is normal. Regarding the future market, analysis suggests that polyacrylamide will continue its stable or slightly fluctuating trend.

Aluminium fluoride prices fell this week

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, as of July 10, the quotation of Aluminium fluoride in China was 9825 yuan/ton, down 0.76% from the price of Aluminium fluoride of 9900 yuan/ton on July 1 at the beginning of the month. The price of raw materials fell in shock, and the cost of Aluminium fluoride fell. In July, the price of Aluminium fluoride fell in shock.

The price of raw material hydrofluoric acid fluctuates and falls

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of July 10th, the price of hydrofluoric acid was 9585.71 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.74% compared to the price of 9657.14 yuan/ton on July 1st at the beginning of the month. In July, the price of hydrofluoric acid fell in shock, the cost of Aluminium fluoride fell, and the downward pressure on Aluminium fluoride increased.

Fluctuation and decline in fluorite prices

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of July 10th, the price of fluorite was 3062.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.76% compared to July 1st, which was 3117.50 yuan/ton. In July, the price of fluorite fluctuated and fell, the cost of Aluminium fluoride fell, and the downward pressure on Aluminium fluoride increased.

Market Overview and Forecast

The analysts of Aluminium fluoride industry from the business agency believe that: in July, the prices of hydrofluoric acid and fluorite fell in shock, the cost of Aluminium fluoride raw materials fell, and the downward pressure on Aluminium fluoride increased. In the future, the cost will fall, and the downward pressure of Aluminium fluoride will increase. It is expected that the price of Aluminium fluoride will fall in the future.

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the ex factory price of hydrogenated benzene in North China will rise from June 30 to July 7, 2022. Last weekend, it was 6100 yuan/ton, and this weekend, it was 6243 yuan/ton, up 2.35%.

In terms of crude oil: WTI crude oil has shown an overall upward trend during this cycle. Against the backdrop of interest rate hikes, economic concerns still exist, but the deepening of production cuts in Saudi Arabia and Russia continues to provide support, and international oil prices fluctuate. NYMEX crude oil futures contract 08 increased by 0.01 USD/barrel or 0.01% to 71.80 USD/barrel; ICE oil futures contract 09 dropped by $0.13 per barrel, or 0.17%, at $76.52 per barrel. The main contract for China INE crude oil futures, 2308, rose 4.5 yuan to 558.2 yuan/barrel, and fell 0.7 yuan to 557.5 yuan/barrel in overnight trading.

The ex factory price of Sinopec pure benzene increased by 100 yuan/ton on July 7, 2023, and is currently at 6300 yuan/ton.

Other companies: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 6350 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 6200 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical quoted 6303 yuan/ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 6300 yuan/ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical quoted 6200 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of pure benzene has slightly decreased this week. On July 3rd, the price of pure benzene was 6203 yuan/ton, and on Friday (July 7th), the price of pure benzene was 6260 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.34% compared to last week and a decrease of 32.56% compared to the same period last year

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. The weekly K-bar chart of pure benzene shows that the pure benzene market has seen a slight increase after ten consecutive weeks of decline.

In terms of industrial chain: During this cycle, crude oil and styrene have overall risen, boosting the mindset of the industrial chain. The pure benzene market has slightly increased, with Sinopec’s listed price of pure benzene increasing to 6300 yuan/ton. The factory price of hydrogenated benzene enterprises has generally risen to 6200-6250 yuan/ton this week.

Driven by the upward trend of the industrial chain, the overall price of the hydrogenation benzene market rose this week. The ex factory price in Hebei rose to 6200-6250 yuan/ton, and the market price in East China rose to 6350-6450 yuan/ton. On the supply side, as the market improved during the week, some units resumed operation in the early stage, and the operating rate slightly increased during the week. There has been little change in demand, and downstream enterprises have both started and stopped. Overall, the strengthening of crude oil and styrene has driven the market mentality of the industrial chain, and the overall strength of the industrial chain this week. In the future, there is still an upward expectation for crude oil, and there is still support for the industrial chain. It is expected that the market will remain stable with a strong trend and there is room for a slight increase.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of pure benzene has slightly decreased this week. On June 25th, the price of pure benzene was 6187 yuan/ton, and on Friday (June 30th), the price of pure benzene was 6177 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.37% from last week and 35.14% from the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and Review

This week, the price of Sinopec pure benzene stabilized at 6200 yuan/ton (prices in Shandong and Hebei regions are synchronized)

Downstream aspect

3、 Future Market Forecast

Crude oil rebounded to support, and it is expected that pure benzene will open for consolidation this morning.

Although further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve may curb economic growth, the peak summer fuel consumption in the United States has arrived and international oil prices have risen. NYMEX crude oil futures 08 contract increased by $0.30 per barrel or 0.43% to $69.860 per barrel; ICE oil futures contract 08 rose by 0.31 US dollars per barrel or 0.42% to 74.340 US dollars per barrel. The main contract for China INE crude oil futures, 2308, rose 2.5 yuan to 538.5 yuan/barrel, and rose 6.4 yuan to 544.9 yuan/barrel in overnight trading.

Core logic: Yesterday, East China pure benzene reached 6040-6100 yuan/ton, with styrene market prices rebounding and pure benzene spot prices following the trend, resulting in average demand. The mentality of picking up goods on the Shandong market has improved, and the transaction is better at 6060-6130 yuan/ton.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of Business Society, the price of mixed xylene showed a “V” shaped trend this month. On June 1st, the benchmark price of mixed xylene was 7470 yuan/ton, while on June 30th, the price was 7340 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.74% compared to the beginning of the month.

2、 Analysis and Review

In terms of crude oil, in the first half of the year, the United States House of Representatives passed the bill related to the Debt limit of the United States, and several officials of the Federal Reserve hinted that interest rate hikes would be suspended in June. Investors’ concerns about the economic outlook declined; There have been disagreements within OPEC+regarding the need for further production cuts. In addition to Saudi Arabia’s announcement of an additional 1 million barrels per day reduction in July, which is beneficial for oil prices, countries such as Russia, Iran, and Brazil have higher exports, which weakens the effectiveness of OPEC’s production cuts; The IEA predicts that oil supply will continue to be tight next year, especially in the second half of 2024.

In the second half of the year, the Federal Reserve suspended interest rate hikes in June, which met expectations. There is still a possibility of interest rate hikes in July, and market risks remain; China and India in the Asian region have driven oil demand growth of over 2 million barrels per day, easing concerns about economic recession in Europe and America; On the 24th, the “24-hour mutiny” by Russian mercenary Wagner sparked global attention, and the Wagner incident intensified concerns in the international crude oil market about the stability of Russian oil exports; Following the Wagner incident, the Russia-Ukraine conflict intensified; On the evening of the 28th, EIA commercial crude oil inventory significantly decreased, with a decrease of 9.6 million barrels, exceeding market expectations. US crude oil exports increased significantly, boosting international oil prices.

The crude oil price fluctuated and fluctuated in June. On June 30th, the benchmark price of WTI crude oil by the trading company was 69.56 US dollars per barrel, an increase of 0.14% compared to the beginning of this month (69.46 US dollars per barrel); The benchmark price of Brent crude oil is 74.24 US dollars per barrel, an increase of 0.72% compared to the beginning of this month (73.71 US dollars per barrel).

Downstream, the overall domestic PX price remained stable this month, with a slight increase at the end of the month. On June 1st, the benchmark price of PX was 8200 yuan/ton, and on June 30th, the price was 8250 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.61%. The supply of PX was normal in June, and the demand for oil transfer in Europe and America has rebounded since June. The price of raw material MX has been strong, boosting market sentiment. The operating rate of domestic PX is over 70%, but there is little change in spot supply during the maintenance of some PX devices, and PX prices have slightly increased.

In terms of OX, the price of OX has remained stable this month, with a price of 8100 yuan/ton as of June 1st and 8100 yuan/ton as of June 30th, showing no change compared to the beginning of the month. The downstream phthalic anhydride market of OX is stabilizing, while the downstream plasticizer market is declining. Demand is mainly in demand, and the overall upward momentum of the adjacent benzene market is weakening. There is still downward pressure, and the adjacent benzene market will temporarily stabilize in the future.

In terms of gasoline, gasoline prices have fluctuated this month. On June 1st, the benchmark price of gasoline was 8409.0/ton, and on June 30th, the price was 8468.6 yuan/ton, an increase of 59.6 yuan/ton or 0.71% compared to the beginning of the month. The use of oil for car air conditioners in summer has increased, and during the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, the radius and frequency of private car travel have increased, leading to an increase in gasoline market demand and an increase in oil prices; Operators maintain a cautious attitude towards replenishment, and market transactions are just in need

O-Xylene price stabilized temporarily in June

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, as of June 29, the price of O-Xylene was 8100 yuan/ton, which was more stable than the price of 8100 yuan/ton on June 1 at the beginning of the month. The price of mixed xylene was weak and consolidated. The downstream market of phthalic anhydride fell first and then rose. The upstream and downstream markets of ortho benzene fell in shock. The market of ortho benzene industry chain was weak. The price of O-Xylene was weak and stable in June.

The raw material mixed xylene market fluctuated and fell in June

According to the market analysis system of mixed xylene products in the Business Society, as of June 29th, the price of mixed xylene was 7340 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.21% compared to the price of mixed xylene on June 1st, which was 7430 yuan/ton. In June, the price of mixed xylene fell first, then rose and then fell. The mixed xylene market fluctuated and fell, and the cost of raw materials fell. In June, the O-Xylene market fell under great pressure. However, mixed xylene rebounded and rose in late June, and the downward pressure of O-Xylene in the future market weakened.

Downstream phthalic anhydride market fluctuates and falls

According to the market analysis system for phthalic anhydride products in the Business Society, as of June 29, the price of phthalic anhydride was 7700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.22% compared to the price of 7875 yuan/ton on June 1 at the beginning of the month. In June, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell, resulting in weak demand for ortho benzene and increased downward pressure on ortho benzene; In late June, the price of phthalic anhydride rebounded and rose, the demand for ortho benzene was expected to recover, and the downward pressure on O-Xylene market weakened.

Future prospects

Analysts of O-Xylene data from the business community believe that in June, the prices of mixed xylene and phthalic anhydride fell in shock, and the downward pressure on O-Xylene was large. However, in late June, the prices of mixed xylene and phthalic anhydride rebounded and adjusted, the upstream and downstream market of O-Xylene recovered, and the downward pressure on O-Xylene weakened. Overall, there is significant downward pressure on ortho benzene. With the rebound of mixed xylene and phthalic anhydride prices, the support for the rise of the ortho benzene industry chain is increasing. It is expected that ortho benzene prices will stabilize strongly in the future.