According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from July 28 to August 4, 2022, the ex factory price of hydrogenated benzene in North China increased significantly, from 6400 yuan/ton last week to 6933.33 yuan/ton this week, an increase of 8.33%.

In terms of crude oil, overnight crude oil futures jumped sharply on Thursday. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $81.55 per barrel, an increase of $2.06 or 2.6%. The settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $85.14 per barrel, an increase of $1.94 or 2.3%. On August 4th, the domestic SC crude oil market rose with the main contract settling at 622.1 yuan/barrel, a decrease of 1.55%. There are reports that Saudi Arabia and Russia will extend their independent production reduction period until September, or even longer, as supply tightening is expected to intensify.

The factory price of Sinopec pure benzene has increased by a total of 400 yuan/ton during this cycle, with a current implementation of 7600 yuan/ton.

Other companies: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 7750 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 7600 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical quoted 7733 yuan/ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 7750 yuan/ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical quoted 7600 yuan/ton.

This week, the price of pure benzene has slightly increased. As of July 31st, the price of pure benzene was 7287 yuan/ton. On Friday (August 4th), the price of pure benzene was 7670 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.08% compared to last week and a decrease of 9.94 compared to the same period last year.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. The weekly K-bar chart of pure benzene shows that the pure benzene market has seen a positive trend in recent times. After ten consecutive weeks of decline, it has continued to rise for five consecutive weeks.

From the perspective of the industrial chain, the trend of crude oil this week has been volatile, with pure benzene continuing to rise in the external market. Pure benzene in East China continues to rise, and the overall market supply is currently tight. Sinopec has raised the factory price of pure benzene twice in a row, with a cumulative increase of 400 yuan/ton. Supported by multiple positive factors, the price of pure benzene continues to rise, and the price of hydrogenated benzene has also risen within the week, with an increase of 350 to 400 yuan/ton.

Driven by the pure benzene market, the hydrogenation benzene market continued to rise this week. Currently, the factory price in Hebei has risen to 7650-7850 yuan/ton, and the market price in East China has risen to 7850-7900 yuan. On the supply side, with the increase in market prices, the operating rate of hydrogenation benzene enterprises has increased this week, and currently, on-site supply is still acceptable. There has been little change in demand. In terms of raw materials, the auction price of crude benzene has risen again this week, and the profitability of hydrogenation benzene enterprises remains poor, resulting in significant cost pressure for enterprises. In the future, there has been no significant change in supply and demand, and the trend of hydrogenated benzene will still follow the fluctuations of the pure benzene market. There is some resistance in the downstream of the high price of pure benzene, but the overall supply of pure benzene is tight, which has a certain boost to the market. It is expected that the market for pure benzene and hydrogenated benzene will experience high volatility in the short term.

This week (7.31-8.7), the market for chloroform slightly declined. According to data from Business Society, as of August 7th, the price of trichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2012 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.42% from last Monday’s 2062 yuan/ton. The price of raw material methanol continues to rise, and the cost support for trichloromethane has strengthened compared to the previous period; Some devices have restarted operation, and the supply of trichloromethane has slightly increased; In addition, downstream demand is weak, and the overall industry chain is mainly bearish, resulting in a decrease in the price of chloroform.

This week (7.31-8.7), some devices have slightly increased after restarting, and in the later stage, Jiuhong’s new devices will produce products, and the pressure on the supply side of chloroform is expected to increase again.

This week (7.31-8.7), the price of raw material methanol slightly increased, and the cost center of trichloromethane increased. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of August 7th, the spot price of methanol was 2330 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.19% from last Monday’s 2280 yuan/ton.

Recently, the downstream refrigerant R22 is in the traditional off-season, and some enterprises have maintained stable parking and maintenance prices, resulting in weak demand for chloroform. In addition, the total production quota of R22 has been reduced by 19% to 181800 tons in 2023, and overall support for chloroform demand has weakened in the medium to long term.

According to methane chloride data analysts from Business Society, the overall weak demand for trichloromethane at the end of the peak season, coupled with the expected increase in supply side pressure in the later period, although there is support for higher methanol prices on the cost side, overall, it is expected that the trichloromethane market will be weak and narrow in the short term.

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, as of August 4, the average price quoted by Epichlorohydrin enterprises was 8125.00 yuan/ton, up 1.88% from Monday.

The market of Epichlorohydrin rose mainly this week. In the near future, the price of raw propylene is weak, the price of raw glycerin is mainly stable, and the cost side has little impact. The capacity utilization rate of Epichlorohydrin and the main downstream epoxy resin industry has increased slightly. Enterprises mainly deliver more contracts and early orders, and the market spot supply is tight, which supports the price of Epichlorohydrin to rise. With the price increase and the impact of the expected news of supply increment, the enthusiasm of downstream inquiries has decreased, Focus on following up on just the right amount.

Upstream propylene, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the reference price for propylene on August 3 was 6638.25, a decrease of 1.12% compared to August 1 (6713.25).

Downstream epoxy resin, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, on August 3rd, the reference price of epoxy resin was 14200.00, which is the same as August 1st.

According to the Epichlorohydrin analysts of the business community, the manufacturers are currently under no pressure to ship, and the enthusiasm for downstream procurement is moderate. It is expected that the epichlorohydrin market will be deadlocked in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the supply side changes.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic NMP market was reorganized and operated in July, with a downward shift in focus. At the beginning of July, the average price of electronic grade NMP was 17333 yuan/ton. As of July 31st, the average price was 17000 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 1.92%.

2、 Analysis and Review

As of July 31st, the mainstream prices of NMP bulk water in different regions in China are as follows:

Region/ July 31st

East China/ 15500-16000 yuan/ton

Central China/ 15000-16000 yuan/ton

Southwest region/ 15000-16000 yuan/ton

In July, the domestic NMP market showed significant stability and slight fluctuations, lacking substantial positive factors to support the market. Enterprise quotations were on the market, with downstream demand being the main force. The increase in construction work did not change much, resulting in limited demand growth and limited support for NMP. The NMP of raw materials fluctuated downward, and cost support further weakened.

In July, the domestic BDO market saw a unilateral decline, with a slight rebound at the end of the month. From July 1st to 27th, the average price of domestic BDO decreased from 11421 yuan/ton to 10942 yuan/ton, with a 4.19% decrease in price during the cycle.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society NMP analysts believe that the current downstream construction of NMP remains low, and under demand constraints, it is expected that in the short term, NMP prices will be adjusted and operated at a low level in the future.

The market of Polybutadiene rose slightly this week (7.24-7.31). According to the commodity market analysis system of the business agency, as of July 31, the price of Polybutadiene in East China was 10940 yuan/ton, up 1.58% from 10770 yuan/ton last Monday. The price of raw butadiene continues to rise, and the cost of Polybutadiene is supported; Recently, the supply price of Polybutadiene has been raised by 200 yuan/ton, and the offer of merchants has risen slightly.

This week (7.24-7.31), the Polybutadiene plant basically operated normally, and Polybutadiene supply was loose as a whole.

The price of raw butadiene continued to rebound this week (7.24-7.31), and the cost focus of Polybutadiene rebounded. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of July 31st, the price of butadiene was 7201 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.34% from last Monday’s 6968 yuan/ton.

The natural rubber market slightly increased this week (7.24-7.31). According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of July 31st, the price of natural rubber was 12080 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.94% from last Monday’s 11850 yuan/ton.

Recently, the tire operating rate has fluctuated slightly, with a slight increase in half steel tire operating compared to the previous period, and a slight decrease in all steel tire operating compared to the previous period. The demand for rubber rigid support is stable. It is understood that as of late July 2023, the operating load of rubber tire enterprises in Shandong Province for all steel tires is 6.3%, and for half steel tires, it is around 7.2%.

Future market forecast: analysts from the business community believe that the high raw material price of Polybutadiene is supported by its cost. In the second half of the month, many devices were restarted, and the pressure on the supply side of Polybutadiene increased slightly; The downstream commencement fluctuates slightly, which is stable for Polybutadiene support; To sum up, it is expected that Polybutadiene will consolidate after rising in the short term. In the medium and long term, if the cost and demand continue to support, Polybutadiene may have the opportunity to continue to rise.

Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the price of sulfur in East China continued to decline this week. On July 28, the price of sulfur was 846.67 yuan/ton, and on July 22, the price of sulfur was 876.67 yuan/ton, down 3.42%, up 18.69% from the beginning of the month.

The sulfur market in East China is weak, mainly due to the poor shipment of some refineries and the continuous reduction of sulfur prices. But overall, the sulfur market is strong. Although the on-site units operate normally, the supply of goods is stable, the downstream market has slightly improved, the terminal industry has started to increase, and the market orders have increased. The industry is optimistic about the future market. In addition to East China, there are also some sulfur manufacturers in some regions whose quotations have increased. At present, the market is cautious, The manufacturer adjusts the quotation based on their own shipment situation. As of the 28th, the mainstream price of solid sulfur in refineries in Shandong region is around 810-930 yuan/ton; The mainstream price of liquid sulfur is between 800-880 yuan/ton.

Downstream market of the industrial chain

The downstream sulfuric acid price has slightly increased. On July 28th, the average domestic sulfuric acid price was 160.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.26% compared to the price of 152.00 yuan/ton on July 22nd. The on-site sulfuric acid plant is operating normally, the supply of goods is stable, downstream demand has improved, enterprise shipments have increased, and the operator’s attitude is wait-and-see, resulting in a slight increase in sulfuric acid prices.

The market for monoammonium phosphate is relatively strong. On July 28th, the average market price for 55% powdered monoammonium was 2616.67 yuan/ton. On July 22nd, the average market price for 55% powdered monoammonium was 2566.67 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.95%. Downstream inquiries have increased, and some manufacturers have smooth shipments with strong bullish intentions. The quotation of ammonium nitrate manufacturers has been raised, and the market may continue to rise in the future.

Future Market Forecast

Business Society sulfur analysts believe that the sulfur enterprise’s equipment is operating normally, the manufacturer’s inventory is maintaining rationality, the end industry has good trading, the purchasing enthusiasm has increased, and the market inquiry atmosphere has increased. In the future, fertilizer will be used in the autumn, and the demand side is bullish. The operator’s mentality is positive, and it is expected that the sulfur market may be slightly stronger. In the future, specific attention will be paid to the downstream follow-up situation.

According to data monitored by Business Society, as of July 27th, the average price of domestic industrial grade premium cyclohexane was 600 yuan/ton, which is stable compared to the same period last week. The overall market supply and demand are balanced, and shipments are currently slow.

This week, the market price of cyclohexane has been operating in a narrow range, with the mainstream price around 6600 yuan/ton. Compared to the same period last week, the price has remained stable, with mainstream manufacturers maintaining a quotation range of around 6400 yuan/ton. The operating rate is stable, and downstream demand procurement is the main focus. The negotiation atmosphere is flat.

Chemical Index: On July 26th, the chemical index stood at 834 points, an increase of 4 points compared to yesterday, a decrease of 40.43% from the highest point in the cycle of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and an increase of 39.46% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

Cyclohexane analysts from Business Society believe that in the short term, the stable operation of the cyclohexane market is the main trend, with a narrow range being weak.

In July, the domestic bisphenol A market showed a trend of first rising and then declining. On July 1st, the mainstream price in East China was discussed at 9212 yuan/ton, and as of the 25th, the market was quoted at 9670 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.97%. Among them, on the 13th, the market rose to 10000 yuan/ton, maintaining the trend for nearly a week, with an amplitude of 8.55% in July.

In early July, the upward trend continued in mid to late June, with prices rising from 8700 yuan/ton in the early stage to 10000 yuan. This was mainly affected by supply side tensions. However, after maintaining a high price in mid July, due to severe demand shortage, the bisphenol A market turned downward, and the operating rate increased in late June. The severe supply side tension was alleviated, and as of July 25th, the market negotiations reached around 9700 yuan/ton.

The supply side eased in late July. Guangxi Huayi Bisphenol A Plant has restarted, and the operating rate has further increased. It is expected that the operating rate will increase to around 80% in August, indicating an improvement in market supply.

The two downstream markets further differentiate, resulting in sluggish demand for epoxy resin terminals, few new orders, and a weak market focus. The overall operating rate of the PC end has improved, with an increase in bisphenol A, but many devices are equipped with bisphenol A or have contracts, which has little impact on the market.

Cost side benefits support. Under the tight supply of dual raw materials phenol and acetone, prices continue to rise. On the other hand, due to the strong crude oil, the cost side is supported. The impact of factory inflation, limited import sources, and strong crude oil has a high probability of phenol and acetone firming up in the short term

The business society believes that the raw materials are strong and the upward cost support is strong, but the demand follow-up is slow, and it is difficult to make significant improvements in the short term. The supply side has improved, but the supply source is relatively concentrated, and the holders are clearly not willing to offer profits for shipment. Under the influence of multiple factors mentioned above, the rise and fall trend of bisphenol A depends on the changes in the influencing factors. On the 25th, there was a correction in the closing price, which does not exclude the possibility of a slight increase in the short term. However, the long-term sustained upward trend depends on the improvement of downstream demand.

According to data monitored by the Business Society, as of July 25th, the average price quoted by domestic premium DMF enterprises was 4725 yuan/ton. This week, the DMF price rose narrowly, dropping 4.42% in the week. Currently, the mainstream price is around 4700 yuan/ton.

This week, the overall DMF market saw a narrow upward trend, with prices increasing by 4.42% compared to the same period last week. Currently, the mainstream price range is 4700.00 yuan/ton, and the downstream procurement atmosphere is average. The upstream cost support is insufficient, and shipments are slow. Manufacturers are giving up profits and taking orders, resulting in high inventory levels.

Chemical Index: On July 24th, the chemical index stood at 828 points, an increase of 2 points compared to yesterday, a decrease of 40.86% from the highest point in the cycle of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and an increase of 38.46% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

Business Society DMF analysts believe that in the short term, the DMF market will operate steadily with a stronger trend.

According to the price monitoring data of Business Society, as of July 24, 2023, the reference price of domestic n-propanol was 7566 yuan/ton. Compared with July 17, 2023 (reference price of n-propanol was 7766 yuan/ton), the price was reduced by 200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.85%.

From the data monitoring chart of the Business Society, it can be seen that in the recent period (7.17-7.24), the overall market situation of n-propanol in China has shown a downward trend. Last week (7.17-7.23), the domestic n-propanol market remained stable and consolidated overall, with little market fluctuation and relatively calm news. At the beginning of this week (July 24th), the center of gravity of the n-propanol market was moving downwards. Some large n-propanol factories and suppliers in Shandong lowered the prices of n-propanol by around 200 to 400 yuan/ton, driving the overall market downward and widening the price difference between high and low prices on the market. As of July 24th, the market price of n-propanol in Shandong region is around 6700-7600 yuan/ton. The market for n-propanol in Nanjing is relatively stable. Distributors in different regions still have reservations about prices, and the difficulty in monitoring prices may lead to differences in specific negotiation situations. Each region also has differences, and actual negotiations are the main focus.

Prediction of the Future Market Trend of n-propanol

At present, the overall trading atmosphere in the n-propanol market is relatively light, with downstream markets mainly focusing on procurement and cautious stocking. According to the n-propanol data analyst of the Business Society, in the short term, the domestic n-propanol market is mainly adjusted and operated in multiple intervals, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.