Recently (10.11-10.20), the spot market for butadiene rubber has been weak and declining. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of October 20th, the market price of butadiene rubber in East China was 12740 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.86% from 12850 yuan/ton on the 11th. During the cycle, the factory price of butadiene rubber will be reduced by 200 yuan/ton.

The price of raw material butadiene has risen, and the cost of butadiene rubber continues to support. The pressure on the supply side of butadiene rubber has increased, coupled with the lack of downstream inquiries after the holiday, causing a downward pressure on the butadiene rubber market. As of October 20th, the mainstream domestic butadiene rubber market reported a price of 12000~12800 yuan/ton.

Industry construction has slightly increased, and pressure on the supply side of butadiene rubber has increased.

Recently (10.11-10.20), the butadiene market has risen, and there is still some support for the cost of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of October 20th, the price of butadiene was 9137 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.91% from 8710 yuan/ton on the 11th.

Demand side: Tire production fluctuates slightly, while rubber inquiries are relatively light. It is understood that as of mid October, the operating load of semi steel tires in China was 7.3%; The operating load of all steel tires for tire enterprises in Shandong region is 6.4%, which only maintains rigid support for rubber.

Future Market Forecast: Business Society analysts believe that the rising prices of butadiene rubber raw materials and increasing supply pressure on butadiene rubber will result in fewer downstream inquiries after the holiday. It is expected that the spot market of butadiene rubber will show a weak and volatile trend in the short term.

According to data monitored by Business Society, as of October 19th, the price of high-quality power type lithium iron phosphate was 68400 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.29% compared to the same period last week. Currently, the mainstream price is around 68000 yuan/ton, mainly for contract customers, and new orders are not accepted.

This week, the stable operation of lithium iron phosphate is the main focus, with a price of 68000 yuan/ton for the same period last week. Currently, the mainstream price is around 68000 yuan/ton, and the overall market is mainly stable. Downstream restocking is needed, while upstream lithium carbonate is stable and strong. There is some support for the cost side of lithium iron phosphate. In the short term, lithium carbonate will maintain its previous trend, and manufacturers will only supply old customers with goods, while new customers will not take orders.

Chemical Commodity Index: On October 18th, the chemical index stood at 919 points, a decrease of 2 points from yesterday, a decrease of 34.36% from the highest point in the cycle of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and an increase of 53.68% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

Analysts from Business Society believe that in the short term, the lithium iron phosphate market is operating steadily with a stronger trend.

Recent trends in sulfuric acid prices

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic sulfuric acid market price has temporarily stabilized this week, with a price of 306.00 yuan/ton. Over the weekend, the price fell by 24.63% year-on-year.

Upstream market slightly declined, while downstream procurement enthusiasm is good

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream domestic sulfuric acid manufacturers have temporarily stabilized this week, with average inventory levels among manufacturers.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industry chains, the upstream sulfur market has slightly declined, with sulfur prices dropping from 956.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 933.33 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 2.44%, and a year-on-year decrease of 40.17% at the weekend. The upstream market has slightly declined, with insufficient cost support. The downstream hydrofluoric acid market slightly increased, with the market price rising from 11450.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 11500.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 0.44%. The weekend price increased by 11.65% year-on-year. The downstream titanium dioxide market has stabilized at a high level, with a market price of 17300.00 yuan/ton. Over the weekend, the price increased by 8.01% year-on-year. The downstream market has slightly increased, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is good.

Small fluctuation and decline in the future market

In late October, the domestic sulfuric acid market may experience a slight fluctuation and decline. Although the downstream titanium dioxide and hydrofluoric acid markets have slightly increased, downstream customers have a good enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid. However, the upstream sulfur market has slightly declined, and cost support is insufficient. Under the contradiction between supply and demand, the product trend is declining. Business Society sulfuric acid analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic sulfuric acid market is mainly affected by various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials, and the sulfuric acid market price may fluctuate and decline slightly.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the mainstream price of styrene in Shandong has recently declined. At the beginning of the week, the average price of styrene in Shandong was 9133.33 yuan/ton, while on the weekend, the average price of styrene in Shandong was 8616.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.66%. The price has decreased by 2.27% compared to the same period last year.

styrene

Recently, the market price of styrene has declined. From the above chart, it can be seen that the price of styrene has mainly decreased since last month, and the market has continued to decline slightly this week. Last week, crude oil, raw materials, and major markets weakened, with average cost support. The production and sales profitability of styrene production enterprises is poor. Currently, downstream demand is mainly maintained, and the market is relatively cold, with insufficient spot transactions and high styrene inventory, leading to a downward trend in the market.

In terms of raw materials, the price of pure benzene continued to decline this week, with insufficient purchasing willingness from downstream customers. Overall, negotiations in East China have declined, and trading has been sluggish, with spot transactions ranging from 7700 to 7780 yuan/ton. The buying sentiment in the Shandong market is weak, and transactions continue to decline, with prices ranging from 7650 to 7740 yuan/ton.

In terms of downstream market, the three major downstream markets of styrene have fluctuated. At the beginning of this week, the average price of PS was 9933 yuan/ton, while on weekends, the average price of PS was 9700 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 2.35% and a decrease of 5.83% compared to the same period last year. The PS market transactions are average, and industry insiders are mainly wait-and-see. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic PS (polystyrene) price may fluctuate in a narrow range.

This week, the EPS market has declined, with weaker upstream support and a focus on market transactions. Terminal profits are meager, and EPS market inquiries have not increased. Prices are mostly stable, with a strong wait-and-see atmosphere on the market, and buying is mainly on demand.

Recently, the domestic ABS market has experienced a slight decline, and the upstream three materials of ABS have fallen and leveled off, which has loosened support for the cost side of ABS. The construction of petrochemical plants is at a high level, leading to the accumulation of social inventory. The demand side support has weakened, and pre holiday stocking consumption has gradually subsided. It is expected that the ABS market may still be weak in the short term.

At present, international oil prices have significantly increased, with good cost support. The restart of styrene plants is lower than the reduction in production, and there are many favorable conditions for the short-term styrene market. It is expected that the short-term styrene market will mainly fluctuate and rise.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of toluene has recently declined weakly (9.28-10.13). On October 13th, the benchmark price of toluene was 7810 yuan/ton, while on September 28th, the benchmark price was 8210 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.87%.

International crude oil has significantly decreased compared to before the holiday, and toluene cost support has weakened

International crude oil has significantly decreased compared to before the holiday, weakening the cost support for toluene. As of October 12th, the WTI11 contract closed at $83.50 per barrel, with a settlement of 82.91 yuan per barrel; The Brent 12 contract closed at $86.28 per barrel and settled at $86.00 per barrel.

The demand for refined oil supports the domestic mixed blending market, which still has some support for toluene

Affected by the trend of crude oil, the diesel market prices have significantly decreased after the holiday. However, the operating load of outdoor infrastructure projects, industrial and mining industries has gradually increased, coupled with the support of agricultural autumn harvest demand, the demand side supports the domestic diesel market. As the weather turns cold and winter approaches in the northern hemisphere, the peak season of heating oil demand has begun, providing some support for the diesel market. Recently, the domestic diesel market price trend has slightly rebounded.

At the beginning of the holiday, gasoline was affected by the lower cost of crude oil prices, coupled with an increase in inventory in some refineries, resulting in a significant decline in the domestic gasoline market price trend. However, as some intermediaries returned after the holiday to replenish inventory, the production and sales rate of Shandong refineries exceeded 100%, and the domestic gasoline market price slightly increased with the trend.

Some PX operations have decreased, and toluene has a strong need for support, but it has weakened due to insufficient support

The international crude oil price has decreased compared to before the holiday, coupled with the decline in Asian market reports, the market for paraxylene has decreased compared to before the holiday. The operating rate of domestic PX devices has slightly decreased compared to the previous period, and the support for toluene has slightly weakened. It is understood that Guangdong Petrochemical’s 2.6 million ton/year PX device has dropped to around 50% since October,.

After the holiday, inventory increased and toluene supply pressure slightly increased

The production of toluene has been stable, and port inventory has increased. As of early October, the domestic toluene industry has started operating at around 7.4%; As of October 12th, the inventory of toluene in East China was 39000 tons, while the inventory of toluene in South China was 9000 tons.

Future forecast: International crude oil prices will fluctuate after the holiday, and there will still be support for the cost of toluene; Downstream products such as toluene and PX have just needed support for toluene, but their margins have weakened. In addition, with an increase in port inventory, it is expected that the toluene market will be weak and narrow in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic NMP market remained stable at a low level in September. At the beginning of September, the average price of electronic grade NMP was 15333 yuan/ton, and on September 28th, the average price was 15333 yuan/ton, with no increase or decrease.

2、 Analysis and Review

As of September 28th, the mainstream prices of NMP bulk water in different regions in China are as follows:

Region/ September 28th

East China region/ 14500-15500 yuan/ton

Central China region/ 14500-15000 yuan/ton

Southwest region/ 14500-15500 yuan/ton

In September, the domestic NMP market maintained stability and stability. As of the 28th, the mainstream quotation for bulk water in the domestic electronic grade NMP market was 14500-15500 yuan/ton. The price of raw material BDO fluctuates and decreases, weakening cost support. The demand side of NMP remains weak, with a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. The NMP price is at the bottom, with factories mainly guarding prices and approaching the Double Festival. There is no obvious stock preparation performance in the market, and it is mainly used and purchased on demand.

In September, the domestic BDO market fluctuated and fell. Due to the continuous restart of upstream maintenance devices, the supply side has increased, and the demand side has been slow to follow up, resulting in a downward shift in the focus of market transactions. From September 1st to 27th, the average price of domestic BDO decreased from 11657 yuan/ton to 11085 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 4.90% during the cycle.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to NMP analysts from Business Society, the current downstream construction of NMP remains low, and the market lacks effective positive factors to boost it. Under demand constraints, it is expected that the low NMP prices will be consolidated and operated in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the mixed xylene market rose first and then declined in September. On September 28th, the benchmark price of mixed xylene was 8490 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.47% from 8450 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month; Compared to the monthly high of 8720 yuan/ton, it has decreased by 2.64%.

The arbitrage space between Asia and the United States narrowed in the second half of the month, and the xylene market negotiated a decrease in prices

In late September, the demand for mixed blending in North America decreased, and the flow rate of a large amount of aromatic hydrocarbons from Japan, South Korea, and other regions slowed down, easing the tight supply pattern of aromatic hydrocarbons within Asia in the short term. The price of xylene in Asia slightly decreased, weakening the support for domestic prices. As of September 27, the price of isomeric grade toluene in Asia was between $1022 and $1023 per ton, slightly higher than the high point of $1004 to $1005 per ton at the beginning of the month and slightly lower than the high point of $1037 to $1038 per ton in the middle of the month.

Domestic inventory has slightly increased, but it is still at a low level. There is still support for the supply of xylene

The inventory of mixed xylene remains low and the supply of goods remains relatively tight, providing support for the mixed xylene market. It is understood that as of late September, the inventory of xylene in East China was around 21000 tons; There are 10000 tons of waste in the mixed xylene warehouse in South China.

Strong cost support for xylene due to significant increase in crude oil

In the first half of the month, international crude oil futures surged, and WTI reached the $90 level for the first time this year. The main reason is that the expectation of supply tightening has overshadowed concerns about slowing economic growth and increasing US inventory. In the second half of the month, international crude oil prices slightly declined, and the Federal Reserve decided to maintain interest rates unchanged as expected by the market. However, the attitude was hawkish, and it is expected that there will still be a possibility of interest rate hikes within the year. Energy demand expectations will be suppressed, and oil prices will be under pressure. The EIA data at the end of the month was significantly positive, stimulating another surge in crude oil prices. Against the backdrop of reduced production, crude oil continued to be destocked and inventories remained at extremely low levels. Overall, the high international crude oil prices in September showed strong cost support for xylene.

PX starts to stabilize xylene and obtain just needed support

In September, the supply of paraxylene was relatively normal, with a domestic PX operating rate of over 70%. During the maintenance of some paraxylene units, there was little change in spot supply. The operating rate of paraxylene units in Asia was around 70%, and there was little change in PX supply in Asia. The price trend of the domestic paraxylene market has increased.

Weak demand for phthalic anhydride and weak support for xylene

In September, the prices of mixed xylene and phthalic anhydride fluctuated and rose, supported by the industrial chain, and the prices of adjacent benzene continued to rise. But with the high price of crude oil falling back, the price of mixed xylene fluctuated and fell in late October, while plasticizer companies started at a low level, and the demand for phthalic anhydride was weak. As a result, the high price of phthalic anhydride in late October fell back.

Jinjiu’s demand for refined oil is improving, forming support for xylene in the domestic mixed blending market

In September, the diesel market price slightly increased, and the high temperature weather in China gradually subsided. The workload of outdoor infrastructure projects and other industries gradually increased. In addition, with the end of the fishing season, diesel demand increased, supporting the domestic diesel market. Foreign demand for diesel in Europe and America remained strong. As the weather turned cold and winter approached in the Northern Hemisphere, the peak season for heating oil demand began, and diesel export profits were considerable in the near future, The enthusiasm for diesel exports remains strong, providing strong support for the diesel market. Overall, the price trend in the domestic diesel market is rising.

On the one hand, domestic gasoline in September was strongly supported by the cost of crude oil, and on the other hand, it entered the peak season of consumption in Jinjiu. With the arrival of the Mid Autumn and National Day holidays, downstream merchants have increased their replenishment mentality, and refinery inventory has remained low. Most manufacturers may stock up in advance, which is a combination of positive factors. The domestic gasoline market is operating at a high level.

Future forecast: In the short term, supported by international crude oil and naphtha costs, domestic supply will still be tight, but downstream demand will weaken after a significant increase in prices. It is expected that mixed xylene will operate at a high level in the future. After the holiday, attention should be paid to the international crude oil price trend. If crude oil prices rise again, xylene prices will rise again supported by costs.

Recently (9.15-9.22), the market for trichloromethane has continued to rise. According to data from Business Society, as of September 22, the price of trichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2787 yuan/ton, an increase of 13.78% from last Friday’s 2450 yuan/ton. The high price of raw material methanol has slightly decreased, while the high price of liquid chlorine has been consolidated, and the cost of trichloromethane continues to support; The overall inventory of trichloromethane enterprises is low, and the supply of goods in the closed market of a certain factory in the region is tight. Although downstream construction is temporarily stable, coupled with some demand support for trichloromethane from pre holiday stocking, the enterprise has a strong willingness to increase the factory price.

Recently (9.15-9.22), the domestic methane chloride production has been basically normal, with an overall production rate of around 75%.

Recently (from September 15th to September 22nd), the price of raw material methanol has risen and fallen, while the price of liquid chlorine has remained high, and the cost of trichloromethane continues to be supported. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of September 22, the spot price of methanol was 2525 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.36% from last Friday’s 2535 yuan/ton, and the highest point in the cycle was 2605 yuan/ton. The high price of raw material liquid chlorine has been sorted out, and as of the 22nd, the acceptance price of tank trucks was 400 yuan/ton, which continued to support trichloromethane in terms of cost.

Refrigerant R22 has been operating at a stable and high price overall, coupled with a significant increase in exports in August compared to July. In the short term, there is a strong demand for chloroform, but in 2023, the total production quota of R22 will be reduced by 19% to 181800 tons. In the medium to long term, the overall support for chloroform demand will weaken. According to customs data, the export volume of R22 in August 2023 was 9634 tons, a significant increase from 8560 tons in July.

Analysts from Business Society’s methane chloride data believe that there is still support for Chen Ben and demand in the short term, and it is expected that the trichloromethane market will continue to operate at a high level.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the prices of industrial grade and battery grade lithium carbonate continued to decline this week. The average domestic mixed price of industrial grade lithium carbonate on September 21 was 175000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.41% compared to the average price of 189000 yuan/ton on September 17. The average domestic mixed price of battery grade lithium carbonate on September 21 was 190000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.32% compared to the average price of 205000 yuan/ton on September 17.

By observing market changes, it can be seen that the price of lithium carbonate continued to decline this week. In terms of supply, due to the impact of environmental inspections in the current Jiangxi region, mica mining is limited, resulting in a narrowing of profit margins for some Jiangxi lithium salt factories and the phenomenon of production stoppage and reduction. However, it is understood that the amount of lithium carbonate exported from Chile to China increased significantly in August, and it is expected that this portion of lithium salt will arrive in China in September, which will form an effective supply for the overall supply of lithium carbonate in China. In addition, some large lithium salt factories have recently released products at low prices, resulting in an increase in the flow of lithium carbonate in the market.

In terms of demand, the current market has weak supply and demand, and downstream demand expectations are relatively pessimistic, with no obvious signs of improvement in the short term. Buying demand is weak, and transactions are light. With the state of downstream bargain hunting, the focus of market transactions has shifted downward.

The lithium hydroxide market continues to decline, with the recent weak performance of the spodumene concentrate market, the decline of the lithium carbonate market, weakened cost support, insufficient follow-up of downstream demand, cautious procurement on demand, and a light trading atmosphere in the market. Transactions are mainly long-term orders, and the focus of negotiations in the lithium hydroxide market is weakening.

The downstream price of lithium iron phosphate shows a downward trend, with the overall market being weak and declining. Downstream restocking is on demand, while upstream lithium carbonate continues to decline. The weak cost support of lithium iron phosphate has led to a decrease in the price of lithium iron phosphate.

In terms of futures, on September 21, the opening price of the LC2401 contract for lithium carbonate futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 153600 yuan/ton, with the latest price of 159950 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 2.53%, with 220000 transactions and 66110 positions.

Lithium carbonate analysts from Business Society believe that the marginal cost line of lithium salt plants has repeatedly broken through, and many lithium salt plants have started to reduce and shut down production. This will alleviate the supply of lithium carbonate in the future, but the rebound in downstream demand is still less than expected. The phenomenon of strong upstream and downstream gaming will continue, and it is expected that lithium carbonate prices may remain weak in the short term.

According to data monitored by Business Society, as of September 20th, the average price of domestic industrial grade premium cyclohexane was 7033.33 yuan/ton, which is stable compared to the same period last week. The overall market supply and demand are balanced, and shipments are currently slow.

This week, the market price of cyclohexane has been operating in a narrow range, with the mainstream price around 7033.33 yuan/ton. Compared to the same period last week, the price has remained stable, with mainstream manufacturers maintaining a quotation range of around 7000 yuan/ton and a stable operating rate. Downstream demand procurement is the main focus, and the negotiation atmosphere is flat.

Chemical Index: On September 18th, the chemical index stood at 969 points, an increase of 2 points compared to yesterday, a decrease of 30.79% from the highest point in the cycle of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and an increase of 62.04% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

Cyclohexane analysts from Business Society believe that in the short term, the stable operation of the cyclohexane market is the main trend, with a narrow range leaning towards strength.