According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic ethanol market was weak in October. From October 7th to 30th, the average price of domestic ethanol producers dropped from 7000 yuan/ton to 6895 yuan/ton, with a 1.50% drop in price during the cycle and a 2.15% year-on-year increase in price.

At the beginning of the month, production enterprises mainly completed preliminary orders, with relatively stable inventory and stable prices. In mid month, the production enterprise shipped orders with stable prices, and some factory prices were not high. In the case of poor demand, the overall delivery situation is average. In the latter half of the month, the supply of production enterprises remained stable, market inventory accumulated, and new orders did not improve. The downstream of the main production areas just needed replenishment, and the ethanol market was mainly weak and organized.

In terms of cost, as we enter mid October, the market volume of corn in Northeast China continues to increase, and the high yield of new season corn has become a foregone conclusion. Downstream enterprises have a strong wait-and-see attitude, continuously lowering the purchase price of corn. Grain trading entities are cautious in purchasing and selling, and corn prices continue to be weak. Grassroots farmers have a strong willingness to sell grain, and the domestic corn market supply continues to increase. Under the pressure of strong market supply and weak demand, the domestic corn market prices continue to be weak and downward. There are temporary bearish factors on the cost side of ethanol.

On the supply side, the majority of production enterprises in various regions park their facilities, and the operating rate of normally operating enterprises remains at 30-40%. A small number of enterprises have low inventory, while most enterprises have relatively high inventory. Shuntong Short Stop is about to resume. Hongzhan Huanan is recovering, and there is a possibility of Liaoyuan Jufeng starting up. The supply side of ethanol is influenced by bearish factors.

On the demand side, most ethyl acetate factories maintained normal production status in October. Other chemical products require procurement. The short-term demand for ethanol is mixed.

In the future market forecast, costs are weak and supply and demand are short. Ethanol analysts from Business Society predict that the short-term domestic ethanol will continue to decline.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of October 27th, the average price quoted by formic acid companies was 3375.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.17% compared to October 1st.

In October, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market remained stable, with some companies experiencing price fluctuations. During the month, the price of raw material sulfuric acid steadily decreased, while the price of raw material methanol fluctuated slightly, and cost support weakened. After the Double Festival, downstream inquiries and procurement followed up on demand, with the majority of shippers actively shipping and some companies lowering prices. As inventory pressure gradually eased, the market trading atmosphere was still good. Shippers shipped according to the market, and the market remained stable and stable. On the 27th, the quotation range for industrial grade 85% formic acid enterprises was between 3300-3500 yuan/ton.

Import and export: According to customs statistics, the import volume of formic acid in China was 1208 kilograms in September 2023, and the export volume of formic acid in China was 22641859 kilograms in September 2023.

Business Society formic acid analysts believe that recent cost support is limited, with downstream flexible purchases being the main focus. The overall market transaction remains in demand, and it is expected that in the short term, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market may remain stable and operate on a wait-and-see basis. More attention needs to be paid to market news guidance.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic aggregated MDI market has rebounded in a narrow range. From October 19th to 26th, the domestic aggregated MDI market price increased from 15450 yuan/ton to 15683 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.51% during the cycle, a month on month decrease of 5.14%, and a year-on-year decrease of 2.36%. The main production enterprises have completed the execution of the MDI plan for the month’s distribution channel aggregation, resulting in low inventory and tight supply, resulting in delayed shipments. Next month, the supplier maintenance will be more concentrated, and the supply inventory is expected to shrink, leading to a slight rebound in market prices.

On the supply side, maintenance of the 600000 ton/year unit at Shanghai MDI factory began on November 16th, with distillation shutdown for about two weeks and synthesis maintenance until mid December. The 400000 ton/year device at Chongqing MDI factory is scheduled for maintenance in early December. In addition, there are rumors in the market that the Ningbo factory has maintenance plans. The supply side is shrinking, but there is still room for improvement. The supply side is influenced by favorable factors.

On the cost side, the raw material pure benzene has experienced narrow fluctuations in the domestic pure benzene market. Port inventory has been slightly depleted, and with the support of a significant increase in crude oil futures, the negotiated price of pure benzene has rapidly increased to above 7900 yuan/ton. However, due to the rapid price increase and a slight decline in crude oil, the market procurement pace has slightly slowed down. Raw material aniline: The domestic aniline market has undergone horizontal consolidation, and downstream stocking enthusiasm has weakened. Currently, factories are shipping normally. The cost of aggregating MDI is mixed.

On the demand side, the demand side has started relatively slowly. With the arrival of winter in the north, the demand in the pipeline, spraying, and sheet metal industries has decreased compared to the previous period. The boosting power of the cold industry has not yet affected spot trading, and there has been an increase in attention within the market, but there is still a willingness to ship. The short-term aggregate MDI demand side is influenced by bearish factors.

In the future market forecast, after the price increase, traders’ willingness to ship will increase, and the market atmosphere will be good. Business Society MDI analysts predict that the domestic aggregated MDI market is mainly slow to follow up.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic market for imported potassium chloride fell first and then rose this week. The price of potassium chloride increased from 2887.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2900.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 0.43%. On October 22nd, the potassium chloride (imported) commodity index was 92.06, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 47.27% from the cycle’s highest point of 174.60 points (2022-06-21), and an increase of 58.04% from the lowest point of 58.25 points on August 6, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from March 1st, 2012 to present)

2、 Market analysis

This week, the prices of mainstream domestic potassium chloride distributors have fluctuated. The arrival price of 60% white potassium in Qinghai is around 2700 yuan/ton, and the self raised price of 62% white potassium in ports is around 2800-2900 yuan/ton. The self raised price of 60% Dahong granules at the port is around 2900 yuan/ton. Border trade accounts for 62% of Russian white potassium at around 2750-2800 yuan/ton.

From the downstream market situation of potassium chloride, the price of potassium carbonate in the market decreased slightly this week, from 7530.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7490.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.53%. The weekend price fell by 19.25% year-on-year. The market price of potassium nitrate slightly decreased this week, dropping from 5450.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 5425.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 0.46%. The weekend price decreased by 14.23% year-on-year. Overall, the downstream market for potassium chloride has slightly declined, and downstream customers’ demand for potassium chloride has weakened.

3、 Future Market Forecast

In late October, the overall trend of potassium chloride market may fluctuate and rise in a narrow range, with consolidation being the main trend. The prices of potassium chloride in salt lakes and Zangge are temporarily stable. The downstream market of potassium chloride has slightly declined, and downstream demand has weakened, with primary demand for procurement. The circulation of potassium chloride is tight, and the supply of goods at the port has slightly increased. Analysts from the Business Society believe that domestic potassium chloride import prices may slightly increase in the short term.

Recently (10.11-10.20), the spot market for butadiene rubber has been weak and declining. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of October 20th, the market price of butadiene rubber in East China was 12740 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.86% from 12850 yuan/ton on the 11th. During the cycle, the factory price of butadiene rubber will be reduced by 200 yuan/ton.

The price of raw material butadiene has risen, and the cost of butadiene rubber continues to support. The pressure on the supply side of butadiene rubber has increased, coupled with the lack of downstream inquiries after the holiday, causing a downward pressure on the butadiene rubber market. As of October 20th, the mainstream domestic butadiene rubber market reported a price of 12000~12800 yuan/ton.

Industry construction has slightly increased, and pressure on the supply side of butadiene rubber has increased.

Recently (10.11-10.20), the butadiene market has risen, and there is still some support for the cost of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of October 20th, the price of butadiene was 9137 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.91% from 8710 yuan/ton on the 11th.

Demand side: Tire production fluctuates slightly, while rubber inquiries are relatively light. It is understood that as of mid October, the operating load of semi steel tires in China was 7.3%; The operating load of all steel tires for tire enterprises in Shandong region is 6.4%, which only maintains rigid support for rubber.

Future Market Forecast: Business Society analysts believe that the rising prices of butadiene rubber raw materials and increasing supply pressure on butadiene rubber will result in fewer downstream inquiries after the holiday. It is expected that the spot market of butadiene rubber will show a weak and volatile trend in the short term.

According to data monitored by Business Society, as of October 19th, the price of high-quality power type lithium iron phosphate was 68400 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.29% compared to the same period last week. Currently, the mainstream price is around 68000 yuan/ton, mainly for contract customers, and new orders are not accepted.

This week, the stable operation of lithium iron phosphate is the main focus, with a price of 68000 yuan/ton for the same period last week. Currently, the mainstream price is around 68000 yuan/ton, and the overall market is mainly stable. Downstream restocking is needed, while upstream lithium carbonate is stable and strong. There is some support for the cost side of lithium iron phosphate. In the short term, lithium carbonate will maintain its previous trend, and manufacturers will only supply old customers with goods, while new customers will not take orders.

Chemical Commodity Index: On October 18th, the chemical index stood at 919 points, a decrease of 2 points from yesterday, a decrease of 34.36% from the highest point in the cycle of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and an increase of 53.68% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

Analysts from Business Society believe that in the short term, the lithium iron phosphate market is operating steadily with a stronger trend.

Recent trends in sulfuric acid prices

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic sulfuric acid market price has temporarily stabilized this week, with a price of 306.00 yuan/ton. Over the weekend, the price fell by 24.63% year-on-year.

Upstream market slightly declined, while downstream procurement enthusiasm is good

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream domestic sulfuric acid manufacturers have temporarily stabilized this week, with average inventory levels among manufacturers.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industry chains, the upstream sulfur market has slightly declined, with sulfur prices dropping from 956.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 933.33 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 2.44%, and a year-on-year decrease of 40.17% at the weekend. The upstream market has slightly declined, with insufficient cost support. The downstream hydrofluoric acid market slightly increased, with the market price rising from 11450.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 11500.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 0.44%. The weekend price increased by 11.65% year-on-year. The downstream titanium dioxide market has stabilized at a high level, with a market price of 17300.00 yuan/ton. Over the weekend, the price increased by 8.01% year-on-year. The downstream market has slightly increased, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is good.

Small fluctuation and decline in the future market

In late October, the domestic sulfuric acid market may experience a slight fluctuation and decline. Although the downstream titanium dioxide and hydrofluoric acid markets have slightly increased, downstream customers have a good enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid. However, the upstream sulfur market has slightly declined, and cost support is insufficient. Under the contradiction between supply and demand, the product trend is declining. Business Society sulfuric acid analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic sulfuric acid market is mainly affected by various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials, and the sulfuric acid market price may fluctuate and decline slightly.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the mainstream price of styrene in Shandong has recently declined. At the beginning of the week, the average price of styrene in Shandong was 9133.33 yuan/ton, while on the weekend, the average price of styrene in Shandong was 8616.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.66%. The price has decreased by 2.27% compared to the same period last year.

styrene

Recently, the market price of styrene has declined. From the above chart, it can be seen that the price of styrene has mainly decreased since last month, and the market has continued to decline slightly this week. Last week, crude oil, raw materials, and major markets weakened, with average cost support. The production and sales profitability of styrene production enterprises is poor. Currently, downstream demand is mainly maintained, and the market is relatively cold, with insufficient spot transactions and high styrene inventory, leading to a downward trend in the market.

In terms of raw materials, the price of pure benzene continued to decline this week, with insufficient purchasing willingness from downstream customers. Overall, negotiations in East China have declined, and trading has been sluggish, with spot transactions ranging from 7700 to 7780 yuan/ton. The buying sentiment in the Shandong market is weak, and transactions continue to decline, with prices ranging from 7650 to 7740 yuan/ton.

In terms of downstream market, the three major downstream markets of styrene have fluctuated. At the beginning of this week, the average price of PS was 9933 yuan/ton, while on weekends, the average price of PS was 9700 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 2.35% and a decrease of 5.83% compared to the same period last year. The PS market transactions are average, and industry insiders are mainly wait-and-see. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic PS (polystyrene) price may fluctuate in a narrow range.

This week, the EPS market has declined, with weaker upstream support and a focus on market transactions. Terminal profits are meager, and EPS market inquiries have not increased. Prices are mostly stable, with a strong wait-and-see atmosphere on the market, and buying is mainly on demand.

Recently, the domestic ABS market has experienced a slight decline, and the upstream three materials of ABS have fallen and leveled off, which has loosened support for the cost side of ABS. The construction of petrochemical plants is at a high level, leading to the accumulation of social inventory. The demand side support has weakened, and pre holiday stocking consumption has gradually subsided. It is expected that the ABS market may still be weak in the short term.

At present, international oil prices have significantly increased, with good cost support. The restart of styrene plants is lower than the reduction in production, and there are many favorable conditions for the short-term styrene market. It is expected that the short-term styrene market will mainly fluctuate and rise.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of toluene has recently declined weakly (9.28-10.13). On October 13th, the benchmark price of toluene was 7810 yuan/ton, while on September 28th, the benchmark price was 8210 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.87%.

International crude oil has significantly decreased compared to before the holiday, and toluene cost support has weakened

International crude oil has significantly decreased compared to before the holiday, weakening the cost support for toluene. As of October 12th, the WTI11 contract closed at $83.50 per barrel, with a settlement of 82.91 yuan per barrel; The Brent 12 contract closed at $86.28 per barrel and settled at $86.00 per barrel.

The demand for refined oil supports the domestic mixed blending market, which still has some support for toluene

Affected by the trend of crude oil, the diesel market prices have significantly decreased after the holiday. However, the operating load of outdoor infrastructure projects, industrial and mining industries has gradually increased, coupled with the support of agricultural autumn harvest demand, the demand side supports the domestic diesel market. As the weather turns cold and winter approaches in the northern hemisphere, the peak season of heating oil demand has begun, providing some support for the diesel market. Recently, the domestic diesel market price trend has slightly rebounded.

At the beginning of the holiday, gasoline was affected by the lower cost of crude oil prices, coupled with an increase in inventory in some refineries, resulting in a significant decline in the domestic gasoline market price trend. However, as some intermediaries returned after the holiday to replenish inventory, the production and sales rate of Shandong refineries exceeded 100%, and the domestic gasoline market price slightly increased with the trend.

Some PX operations have decreased, and toluene has a strong need for support, but it has weakened due to insufficient support

The international crude oil price has decreased compared to before the holiday, coupled with the decline in Asian market reports, the market for paraxylene has decreased compared to before the holiday. The operating rate of domestic PX devices has slightly decreased compared to the previous period, and the support for toluene has slightly weakened. It is understood that Guangdong Petrochemical’s 2.6 million ton/year PX device has dropped to around 50% since October,.

After the holiday, inventory increased and toluene supply pressure slightly increased

The production of toluene has been stable, and port inventory has increased. As of early October, the domestic toluene industry has started operating at around 7.4%; As of October 12th, the inventory of toluene in East China was 39000 tons, while the inventory of toluene in South China was 9000 tons.

Future forecast: International crude oil prices will fluctuate after the holiday, and there will still be support for the cost of toluene; Downstream products such as toluene and PX have just needed support for toluene, but their margins have weakened. In addition, with an increase in port inventory, it is expected that the toluene market will be weak and narrow in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic NMP market remained stable at a low level in September. At the beginning of September, the average price of electronic grade NMP was 15333 yuan/ton, and on September 28th, the average price was 15333 yuan/ton, with no increase or decrease.

2、 Analysis and Review

As of September 28th, the mainstream prices of NMP bulk water in different regions in China are as follows:

Region/ September 28th

East China region/ 14500-15500 yuan/ton

Central China region/ 14500-15000 yuan/ton

Southwest region/ 14500-15500 yuan/ton

In September, the domestic NMP market maintained stability and stability. As of the 28th, the mainstream quotation for bulk water in the domestic electronic grade NMP market was 14500-15500 yuan/ton. The price of raw material BDO fluctuates and decreases, weakening cost support. The demand side of NMP remains weak, with a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. The NMP price is at the bottom, with factories mainly guarding prices and approaching the Double Festival. There is no obvious stock preparation performance in the market, and it is mainly used and purchased on demand.

In September, the domestic BDO market fluctuated and fell. Due to the continuous restart of upstream maintenance devices, the supply side has increased, and the demand side has been slow to follow up, resulting in a downward shift in the focus of market transactions. From September 1st to 27th, the average price of domestic BDO decreased from 11657 yuan/ton to 11085 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 4.90% during the cycle.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to NMP analysts from Business Society, the current downstream construction of NMP remains low, and the market lacks effective positive factors to boost it. Under demand constraints, it is expected that the low NMP prices will be consolidated and operated in the short term.