According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, at the beginning of the month, the average ex factory tax price of Shanxi’s light potassium carbonate was 7340.00 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, the average ex factory tax price of Shanxi’s light potassium carbonate was 7270.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.95%. The lowest point was the average price of 7110.00 yuan/ton on August 11, a decrease of 3.27% compared to the beginning of the month, and the current price has decreased by 27.37% compared to last year.

Potassium carbonate

The price of potassium carbonate fell first and then rose in August. From the above chart, it can be seen that the potassium carbonate market has been declining for three consecutive months, with a rebound at the end of this month. The raw material potassium chloride rose at the end of the month, providing good cost support. Potassium carbonate followed the cost increase and the market bottomed out and rebounded. According to statistics from Business Society, the mainstream factory quotation range for industrial grade potassium carbonate is around 7000-7700 yuan/ton recently (for reference only), and the quotation varies depending on the procurement situation.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of the Business Society, the overall trend of potassium chloride market in August was first downward and then upward. Domestic potassium: The market price of 60% crystal is mostly between 2400-2550 yuan/ton (increased by 50 yuan/ton), while the port price of 62% white potassium is around 2700-2750 yuan/ton (increased by 100 yuan/ton); 60% of the large particles in the port are around 2700-2750; Border trade areas: 62% of Russian white potassium prices are mostly between 2400-2450 yuan/ton; Qinghai 60% white potassium arrives at the station at around 2800. Analysts from the Business Society believe that domestic potassium chloride import prices may slightly increase in the short term<

At present, the border trade has not yet arrived, and the domestic potassium chloride market has a tight supply of goods. Potassium chloride is expected to rise, with good cost support. It is expected that the price of potassium carbonate will mainly rise in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price trend of the domestic heavy rare earth market has increased. On August 24, the rare earth index was 486 points, a decrease of 51.74% from the highest point in the cycle of 1007 points (2022-02-24), and an increase of 79.34% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present)

The price trend of domestic dysprosium oxide, dysprosium iron alloy, and metal dysprosium has increased. As of the 25th, the price of dysprosium oxide was 2.43 million yuan/ton, with a price increase of 3.40% this week; The price of dysprosium iron alloy is 2.395 million yuan/ton, with a price increase of 5.27% this week; The price of dysprosium metal is 2.98 million yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.71% this week; The domestic price of terbium series is mainly increasing, with the domestic price of terbium oxide reaching 7.95 million yuan/ton and the price of metallic terbium reaching 9.85 million yuan/ton.

Recently, the price trend in the heavy rare earth market has increased. Due to the impact of high temperatures and rainfall, some rare earth mining enterprises have limited production, and some rare earth manufacturers have voluntarily reduced production, which has led to a decrease in spot inventory in the market. Separation plants and metal plants in Sichuan region will have varying degrees of production reduction and shutdown behavior, and the rare earth market price trend will rise due to supply reduction. Although Myanmar has reopened its gates, the growth in import sources is limited, coupled with an increase in downstream procurement intentions, resulting in a slight increase in rare earth market transactions. Positive factors support the upward trend of domestic heavy rare earth prices.

According to statistics, in July, the production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 805000 and 780000 units respectively, with a month on month increase of 2.8% in production and a month on month decrease of 3.2% in sales, with year-on-year growth of 30.6% and 31.6%, respectively. From January to July, the production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 4.591 million and 4.526 million respectively, with year-on-year growth of 40% and 41.7%, respectively. The country is accelerating the construction of charging infrastructure to better support the entry of new energy vehicles into rural areas, which is conducive to unleashing the consumption potential of rural areas, increasing the sales of new energy vehicles, and increasing the production and sales of new energy vehicles, which is beneficial for the domestic rare earth market prices.

After years of governance, the domestic rare earth industry has gradually formed a supply pattern with large groups as the main body and relatively concentrated raw materials. With the continuous development of the foreign rare earth industry, China’s share of rare earth production has decreased from 90% to 70%. According to statistics, China’s rare earth export volume in July was 5425.6 tons; From January to July, the cumulative total export volume of rare earths from China was 31661.6 tons, a year-on-year increase of 6%. The export volume of rare earth commodities from China increased, which to some extent supported the prices of the rare earth market.

Future Market Forecast: In the near future, the supply of rare earth production enterprises will gradually recover, and downstream demand will be mainly based on demand procurement. It is expected that the high price fluctuations in the heavy rare earth market will be the main trend in the short term. In the medium to long term, there will be a lack of primary and renewable supply sources, and dysprosium and terbium oxides will also face shortages. In addition, driven by emerging and traditional demands such as energy-saving motors, industrial robots, wind power, variable frequency air conditioning, and consumer electronics, The global demand for rare earth permanent magnets is expected to continue to grow.

Commodity Market: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, in mid August, the mainstream market of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cationic, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in China stabilized first and then slightly declined. On the 11th, the market reported around 14171 yuan/ton, and on the 20th, it reported around 14157 yuan/ton, with a ten-day decline of only 0.1%. Due to the impact of special disasters and logistics restrictions, as well as the recent rise in crude oil, the prices of various raw materials have increased this week. Although the focus of the raw material acrylonitrile and acrylic acid market continues to shift upwards, and the cost of polyacrylamide has increased, the main production area enterprises are operating normally, the market supply is abundant, downstream demand is weak and logistics is limited, and commodity circulation is slow. The mainstream market of polyacrylamide is slightly weak.

Raw material acrylonitrile: According to the commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, the acrylonitrile market continued to decline slightly in mid August. On the 11th, the mainstream market quotation was 8400 yuan/ton, and on the 20th, the main market quotation was 8312 yuan/ton, with a ten-day decrease of 1.04%. The slight increase in raw material prices still provides cost support for acrylonitrile; Downstream construction has slightly increased compared to the early stage, and the demand for acrylonitrile has slightly increased compared to the early stage; The increase in the operation of acrylonitrile units has a certain negative impact on acrylonitrile. Overall, it is expected that the market price of acrylonitrile will fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term.

Raw Material Acrylic Acid: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the acrylic acid market remained stable and slightly upward in mid August. As of the 20th of this month, the average price of acrylic acid in East China was 6312 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.4% compared to the price of 6287 yuan/ton on the first day. The raw material propylene (Shandong) market has fluctuated slightly this week, with cost support still remaining and supply and demand support temporarily stable. The market has a strong wait-and-see mentality, and it is expected that the acrylic acid market may stabilize and operate in the short term, and more market news guidance is needed.

Liquefied natural gas for production. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, in mid August, the domestic liquefied natural gas market first leveled off, then rose and then leveled off: on August 11th, the average price of liquefied natural gas in China was 3640 yuan/ton, and on August 20th, the market reported a main price of 3772 yuan/ton, with a ten-day increase of 3.63%. Recently, the domestic liquefied natural gas market has shown a stable upward trend.

Future forecast: In mid August, the center of gravity of raw material prices will decrease, and the fuel market will fluctuate slightly, with weak support for polyacrylamide costs. On the supply side, enterprises in the main production area have normal production and sufficient market supply; On the demand side, downstream procurement and supply remain flat, and market transactions are stable. The impact of natural disasters weakened in the middle of the year, and the polyacrylamide market remained stable and slightly weakened. It is expected that the future market will remain stable and dominated.

Recent trends in sulfuric acid prices

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic sulfuric acid market prices have significantly increased this week, with sulfuric acid prices increasing from 210.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 252.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 20.00%. Weekend prices fell by 36.04% year-on-year.

The upstream market has significantly increased, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is good

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream domestic sulfuric acid manufacturers have significantly increased this week, with average inventory levels among manufacturers.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industry chains, the upstream sulfur market continues to rise, with sulfur prices rising from 1013.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 1053.33 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 3.95%. Over the weekend, prices fell by 8.67% year-on-year. The upstream market has slightly increased, and cost support has increased. The downstream hydrofluoric acid market slightly increased, with the market price rising from 9483.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 9566.67 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 0.88%. Weekend prices fell 6.34% year-on-year. The downstream titanium dioxide market slightly increased, with market prices rising from 16000.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 16116.67 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 0.73%. Weekend prices fell by 9.54% year-on-year. The downstream market has slightly increased, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is good.

Small fluctuations and gains in the future market

In late August, the domestic sulfuric acid market may experience slight fluctuations and gains. The downstream titanium dioxide and hydrofluoric acid markets have slightly increased, and downstream customers have increased their enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid. The upstream sulfur market has continued to rise recently, with good cost support. Under the contradiction between supply and demand, the product trend is upward. Business Society sulfuric acid analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic sulfuric acid market is mainly affected by various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials, and the sulfuric acid market price may fluctuate slightly.

Price trend

This week, the domestic EVA market remained stable, with spot prices hovering at high levels. According to data monitoring from Business Society, as of August 18th, the average factory price of EVA in China was 14000 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.69% compared to the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

The domestic EVA market remained stable and weak this week. On the supply side, the operating rate of the EVA industry remains at last week’s level, with an overall load position of around 75%. The market supply is relatively low, and factory inventory pressure is not significant. The profitability of EVA polymerization plants fluctuates broadly within a narrow range, while factory prices remain stable. The social inventory pressure is average, and the confidence of traders is supported by aggregation factories and tends to be stable. On the demand side, the current demand side has loosened its support for the EVA price market compared to the previous period. The demand for photovoltaic materials is still acceptable, and the phased stocking of terminal enterprises has not yet ended, which clearly supports the market. The follow-up of foam materials towards terminal enterprises lags behind, resulting in low actual prices and consumption maintaining at off-season levels, dragging down the overall demand side of EVA. The overall stocking operation on the market is weaker than last week, and companies have had a poor acceptance of high priced goods this week, with prices mainly operating horizontally.

Overall, the supply of EVA in the market remained stable this week, with downstream demand still being driven by the main force of photovoltaic technology. Overall, companies mainly offer stable prices, with merchants following the market, and some offers showing signs of looseness. The continuous poor demand for foaming has dragged down the overall market. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic EVA market may experience fluctuations due to weakened demand.

This week (8.14-8.17), the epoxy propane market remained stable and declined. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of August 17th, the average price of epoxy propane enterprises was 9425.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.31% compared to Monday’s price. On August 17th, the mainstream quotation in the Shandong epoxy propane market was around 9100-9200 yuan/ton.

Cost side: Recently, the price of raw material propylene has fluctuated slightly. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the reference price of propylene on August 16 was 6800.75, an increase of 1.3% compared to August 1 (6713.25). The raw material liquid chlorine is operating at a high level, and the cost has some support for the epoxy propane market.

Supply and demand side: Recently, some supply side devices have been repaired, and factory shipments have been average. Downstream follow-up has decreased, and some inventory has been slightly under pressure. High end negotiations in the market are weak, and some companies have lowered their prices.

The epoxy propane analyst at Business Society believes that there is still cost support, and downstream companies just need to follow up in an appropriate amount. With a strong wait-and-see mentality, it is expected that the epoxy propane market may weaken and stabilize in the short term, and more attention needs to be paid to market news guidance.

According to data monitored by the Business Society, as of August 14th, the average price quoted by domestic premium DMF enterprises was 4700 yuan/ton. This week, the DMF price rose narrowly, rising by 0.53% in one week. Currently, the mainstream price is around 4700 yuan/ton.

This week, the overall DMF market saw a narrow upward trend, with prices increasing by 0.53% compared to the same period last week. Currently, the mainstream price range is 4700.00 yuan/ton, and the downstream procurement atmosphere is average. The upstream cost support is insufficient, and shipments are slow. Manufacturers are giving up profits and taking orders, resulting in high inventory levels.

Chemical Index: On August 13th, the chemical index stood at 874 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 37.57% from the cycle’s highest point of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and an increase of 46.15% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

Business Society DMF analysts believe that in the short term, the DMF market will operate steadily with a stronger trend.

Price trend

The recent trend of the domestic PA66 market tends to be sideways. According to data monitoring from Business Society, the mixed benchmark price of PA66 in China was 18333.33 yuan/ton on August 14th, with a+0.73% increase or decrease compared to the price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

The recent market trend of PA66 has continued to be sideways, and overall, the spot prices of various brands are mainly organized. In terms of supply, the overall load of the domestic PA66 industry is currently maintained at around 65%, and it operated horizontally last week compared to the previous period. The changes in the production line situation of the enterprise are limited, and the on-site supply of goods is still relatively sufficient. The supply side’s support for spot goods is average. Poor digestion in terms of inventory, low enthusiasm for stocking by terminal enterprises, and cautious pricing by suppliers. On the upstream side, the domestic market for hexamethylene diamine is relatively weak. In terms of adipic acid market, the trend was sideways after rising, with raw materials such as pure benzene and cyclohexanone showing a strong trend. The promotion of PA66 spot prices on the cost side is relatively strong. The demand for PA66 is weak, with terminal enterprises mainly relying on goods to maintain production, and buyers generally resist high priced sources of goods. It is expected that PA66 may continue its weak consolidation in the short term.

Future Market Forecast

Recently, the spot price of PA66 has seen a sideways trend. The market pattern of raw material prices continued in the early stage, with general support for the cost side of PA66. The load of PA66 enterprise remains unchanged, and there is no significant improvement in supply support. The demand side takes goods to maintain production, and it is expected that PA66 may maintain horizontal consolidation in the short term.

This week, domestic Shandong propane continued to rise, exceeding 5000 yuan/ton. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average price of propane in Shandong on August 7th was 4818 yuan/ton, and on August 11th it was 5363 yuan/ton. The weekly increase was 11.31%, a decrease of 4.37% compared to the same period last year.

As of August 11th, the mainstream prices of propane in different regions in China are as follows:

Region/ August 11th

East China region/ 3850-4000 yuan/ton

North China region/ 4000-4150 yuan/ton

Shandong region/ 4050-4150 yuan/ton

Northeast region/ 3850-3950 yuan/ton

This week (8.7-8.11), the Shandong propane market rose strongly, with multiple broad increases of 150-200 yuan/ton. Due to the limited supply of goods in northern ports and the maintenance of some enterprise installations, the supply in the region has tightened. The Shandong market has led the rise, while downstream buyers have entered the market. Upstream shipments are smooth, inventory remains low, and low supply and high demand support the continuous rise in propane prices.

Saudi Aramco’s CP was introduced in August 2023, with propane at $470 per ton, an increase of $70 per ton compared to the previous month; Butane is $460 per ton, an increase of $85 per ton compared to the previous month.

Overall, the current propane price has risen to a high level, and downstream resistance to high priced sources has increased. With downstream restocking approaching its end in the future, it is expected that the propane market will rise from a low level and stabilize from a high level.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in China was 5250 yuan/ton on August 4th. On August 10th, the average market price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in China was 5250 yuan/ton, and the price of chlorinated paraffin remained stable this week.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of chlorinated paraffin remained stable this week. This week, the prices of raw materials, liquid chlorine and liquid wax, have increased, providing positive cost support. Downstream procurement is cautious, with a focus on just needs. Chlorinated paraffin manufacturers have a stable price mentality, and market transactions are relatively low. But as the raw materials gradually strengthen, on-site transactions begin to increase. As of August 10th, the factory quotation for chlorinated paraffin 52 in Anhui region is about 5600 yuan/ton, while the factory quotation for chlorinated paraffin 52 in Shandong region is about 4800-5150 yuan/ton, which is a national standard.

In terms of raw material liquid wax, the liquid wax remained stable after rising at the beginning of the week, and the liquid wax fluctuated with the crude oil market. In terms of raw material liquid chlorine, the price of liquid chlorine has increased this week, with good market transactions and stable shipments from manufacturers. Maintenance of some manufacturers’ devices resulted in reduced supply.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Chlorinated paraffin analysts from Business Society believe that the recent increase in raw material prices has strengthened cost support. Downstream demand is stable, and with the strengthening of the cost side, the trading atmosphere in the chlorinated paraffin market has improved. It is expected that the price of chlorinated paraffin will continue to rise steadily in the short term.