According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the formaldehyde market in Shandong has recently declined. At the beginning of the week, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1216.67 yuan/ton, while at the end of the week, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1203.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.10%. The current price has decreased by 7.44% compared to last year.

formaldehyde

Recently, the price of formaldehyde in the Shandong region has fluctuated and fallen. From the above chart, it can be seen that the formaldehyde market has been mainly rising in the past two months, and this week’s market has declined. As of September 14th, the mainstream market price in Shandong region is 1150-1260 yuan/ton. This week, the price of raw material methanol showed a downward trend, with poor cost support. The formaldehyde market had light trading volume and the market continued to decline.

Upstream methanol situation: Upstream methanol situation: The domestic methanol market continues to decline, with maintenance of two units in Chifeng Boyuan, Yulin Kaiyue, and Shandong in Inner Mongolia; Anhui Carbon Xin, Hebei Jinshi, Shaanxi Black Cat, Wangcang Hezhong, and a set of devices in Inner Mongolia have been restored. The overall recovery is greater than the loss, resulting in an increase in capacity utilization. The supply side of methanol is negatively affected. The cost is relatively weak, and netizens have broken through in pre holiday stocking in terms of supply and demand. Methanol analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic methanol market is mainly characterized by high volatility.

Recently, the methanol market has been weak and declining, with poor cost support. Downstream panel factories have had poor demand due to the impact of rainy weather. Therefore, formaldehyde analysts from the Chemical Branch of the Business Society predict that the price of formaldehyde in Shandong will mainly decline in the near future.

Summary of Ethylene Oxide Prices in September

In September, the price of ethylene oxide increased. According to data from Business News Agency, as of September 11th, the average market price of ethylene oxide in China was 6600 yuan/ton; From a regional perspective, the average market price in North China is 6500 yuan/ton, East China is 6600 yuan/ton, Central China is 6600 yuan/ton, and South China is 6600 yuan/ton.

Overview of ethylene oxide industry chain

From August to September, the prices of the main downstream polycarboxylate water reducing agent monomers remained relatively stable, while the recent price increase of ethylene oxide was mainly driven by cost factors.

 
Supply side

Previously, the price of ethylene oxide was relatively low, and some manufacturers hit the cost line, facing increasing pressure to lose money. The operating rate of manufacturers was relatively low, and some enterprises underwent equipment maintenance. In addition, some production factories may switch to producing ethylene glycol or adjust their own usage ratio to alleviate production and sales pressure. Overall, there are frequent malfunctions in the ethylene oxide plant, leading to a tightening of market supply. Since July, the cost side benefits brought by the raw material side and the macro benefits driven by the upward trend of crude oil prices in the energy and chemical sector have supported the price of ethylene oxide.

The price of ethylene oxide may continue to fluctuate strongly in September

In the short term, the cost support for ethylene oxide has strengthened, and with the transmission effect of upstream and downstream product prices, the price of ethylene oxide has improved. On the supply and demand side, under the increasing losses of ethylene oxide enterprises on the supply side, production enthusiasm is not high, external sales of enterprises are decreasing, and domestic supply is showing a tense situation. There is still room for the price of ethylene oxide to rise in the short term.

On September 12th, domestic liquid ammonia reversed last week’s upward trend and turned into a decline. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the main production area in Shandong fell by 1.70% daily, with a trading center in the range of 150 to 200 yuan/ton compared to Friday. At present, the mainstream quotation in Shandong region is between 3600-3800 yuan/ton.

On the supply side, the supply in the main production areas has increased, and some faulty enterprises have resumed operation, resulting in increased supply pressure. Since September, the import supply has only increased without decreasing, which has had an impact on the liquid ammonia market in the region. Large factories in Shandong, Hebei, Henan, Shanxi and other regions have all lowered their prices, with most of the price reductions today being at 100 yuan/ton.

On the demand side, downstream demand is relatively stable. However, due to the impact of urea testing, export pressure has increased, and market sentiment has slightly fluctuated. The current industrial demand remains strong.

Prediction: Liquid ammonia analysts from Business Society believe that the supply and demand pattern of the ammonia market will continue to shift from tightening to easing in the short term, and prices will continue to be weak in the near future.

1、 Price data

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, as of September 11th, the mainstream factory price of domestic refined and hydrogenated naphtha was 8126.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.06% compared to September 1st at 8131.50 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price of refined and hydrogenated naphtha was around 8100 yuan/ton.

As of September 11th, the mainstream factory price of domestic refined straight-run naphtha was 8019.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.75% compared to September 1st at 7959.00 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price of locally refined straight-run naphtha was around 8000 yuan/ton.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Recently, the market for local refined naphtha has been volatile, with the rise of international crude oil driving the domestic naphtha market. Refineries are actively shipping, but there is a lack of obvious positive news at the end. Refineries have limited upward momentum, and there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market. The local refined naphtha market is mixed.

Upstream: The international crude oil market has recently risen. OPEC+, an oil producing country, is rumored to have extended production cuts. The market expects an additional 1 million barrels of production reduction from Saudi Arabia to continue until December, while Russia’s crude oil production reduction will continue until December. Supply tightening is expected to continue to ferment and boost the oil market; In addition, the weakening of the US dollar has led to a rebound in oil market valuations and the potential impact of storms in the US Gulf on energy supply, which is a positive factor supporting international oil prices.

Downstream: According to the monitoring of Business Society, the international crude oil price has been operating at a high level recently, with the cost of toluene rising and the factory price of enterprises rising. The external price of mixed xylene has slightly increased, and domestic enterprises have a tight supply. In addition, downstream demand support has led to a strong performance in the xylene market. In terms of PX, the domestic supply of xylene is normal, with a domestic PX operating rate of over 70%, and spot supply is relatively normal.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Energy analysts from Business Society believe that the recent rise in international crude oil has boosted the domestic naphtha market, but the domestic naphtha market lacks significant substantial benefits at the end, leading to weak market guidance and strong market wait-and-see sentiment. Refineries are actively shipping, and it is expected that the local refining naphtha market will be mainly volatile and organized in the near future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the industrial grade first class potassium nitrate in Shanxi was reported at 5450 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, and 5525 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 1.38% and 2.31% month on month. The current price has dropped by 18.75% year-on-year.

potassium nitrate

The domestic potassium nitrate market has risen this week. From the above chart, it can be seen that after a month of continuous increase in the potassium nitrate market, the market continues to rise this week. The market price of potassium chloride on the cost side has increased, with good cost support. Potassium nitrate inventory has decreased rapidly compared to the previous period, and the source of goods is mostly in the hands of traders. They are reluctant to sell, and there are fewer available sources of goods in the market, resulting in an increase in the market. According to statistics from Business Society, mainstream domestic manufacturers of potassium nitrate quoted 5300-5500 yuan/ton this week (for reference only), and the prices vary depending on the procurement situation.

Recently, the prices of mainstream domestic potassium chloride manufacturers have fluctuated and increased. Analysts from the Business Society believe that domestic potassium chloride import prices may slightly increase in the short term.

Recently, the market price of domestic 60% crystal is mostly between 2700-2750 yuan/ton, and new sources of border trade are gradually opening up. Downstream procurement remains in demand, and it is expected that the price of potassium carbonate will mainly rise in the short term, while the long-term market still needs to wait and see.

On August 30th, the crude benzene commodity index was 108.82, a decrease of 0.82 points from yesterday, a decrease of 17.46% from the cycle’s highest point of 131.84 points (2013-01-28), and an increase of 256.32% from the lowest point of 30.54 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present).

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, in August 2023, the crude benzene market first rose and then fell. The domestic factory price of crude benzene was 6593.75 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 6893.75 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 4.55%.

In August, crude oil emerged from a trend of rising and falling, and in the first half of the year, the market continued to rise amidst supply concerns and the positive trend of the peak oil consumption season. Brent crude oil topped $87 per barrel, while WTI crude oil approached $83, reaching a nearly 9-month high. Afterwards, with the deterioration of macro data, the market turned sharply downwards, and near the end of the month, the WTI fell below $80. Under the combined effect of OPEC+production control and weak economic data in oil producing countries, the supply-demand game intensifies, and the market shifts into a narrow range of fluctuations. Overall, in the future, there is a general consensus in the basic market that both supply and demand in the energy sector will weaken simultaneously, leading to an intensification of the supply-demand game in the oil market and a rebalancing of supply and demand. This will continue to put pressure on oil prices. In the short term, the driving force for the oil market to continue to rise is limited. Under the hedging of weak demand expectations and tight supply, the high probability range is mainly characterized by narrow fluctuations.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. The weekly K-bar chart of pure benzene shows that the pure benzene market has shown a positive trend in recent times. After entering July, the pure benzene market has been on the rise for 6 consecutive weeks, and in late August, it has been on a narrow decline for 2 consecutive weeks.

The factory price of Sinopec pure benzene has been raised three times and lowered once in this cycle, with a cumulative increase of 350 yuan/ton within the month. Currently, it is priced at 7750 yuan/ton.

Other companies: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 7730 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 7850 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical quoted 7743 yuan/ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 7730 yuan/ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical quoted 7850 yuan/ton.

In terms of industrial chain: In the first half of the month, the pure benzene market continued to rise, boosted by the rise of crude oil and pure benzene in the external market. The pure benzene market in East China continued to rise, and the market supply was tight. In the first half of the month, the factory price of Sinopec pure benzene increased by 400 yuan/ton twice, supported by multiple positive factors, and the price of pure benzene continued to rise. In the first half of the month, the price of hydrogenated benzene market continued to rise, with a cumulative increase of 350 to 400 yuan/ton. In the second half of August, the crude oil market was volatile, and the external market of pure benzene fell, dragging down the mentality of the pure benzene market. The market trend was somewhat volatile. On August 31, the bidding price of Sinopec pure benzene was lowered by 100 yuan/ton to 7750 yuan/ton.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. After entering 23 years, the hydrogenation benzene market has seen both positive and negative trends. In May, the market has been declining for two consecutive months, while in July and August, it has been rising for two consecutive months. The weekly K-bar chart shows that the hydrogenation benzene market has been rising for 7 consecutive weeks since entering July.

Although crude benzene belongs to coal chemical commodities, the downstream commodity of crude benzene, hydrogenated benzene, as a substitute for pure benzene, has a price trend that closely follows the fluctuations in the pure benzene market. Therefore, the crude benzene market is mainly affected by the pure benzene industry chain. In August, the pure benzene market experienced a high and fluctuating trend in the first half of the month, while crude benzene experienced an upward trend in the first half of the month due to the impact of the industrial chain, and a fluctuating downward trend in the second half. In terms of supply, in August, coking enterprises saw a steady increase in operating rates due to the continuous decline in raw material coking coal prices, and crude benzene supply was relatively loose. In terms of demand, the operating rate of hydrogenation benzene enterprises has slightly declined this month, but there is still a strong demand for support for crude benzene. However, due to the impact of corporate profits, the pressure on prices is strong, and market expectations are weak. In the future, the current trend of crude oil is fluctuating, with insufficient guidance for the market. The supply and demand side of crude benzene is showing bearish factors. In the future, we expect the crude benzene market to operate weakly, with some room for decline. But stocking up before the end of September has boosted prices, and there is room for improvement.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of aniline has slightly increased this week. On August 28th, the market price of aniline was 11167 yuan/ton, and on September 1st, it was 11370 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.62% compared to last week.

2、 Analysis and Review

Pure benzene: Yesterday, the mainstream price in East China was 7700-7740 yuan/ton, and delivery was basically completed. The demand for replenishment slowed down, and the market slightly declined. Shandong is priced at 7740-7800 yuan/ton, with the main business listing falling in price and insufficient market buying, resulting in a decrease in transaction volume. Crude oil rose broadly and is expected to shake and consolidate in East China in the morning. On Friday (September 1st), the price of pure benzene was 7800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.83% compared to last week and an increase of 2.4% compared to the same period last year.

Nitric acid: The domestic price of nitric acid has slightly increased this week. On August 28th, the price was 2016 yuan/ton, and on September 1st, it was 2050 yuan/ton. The price increased by 1.68% compared to last week and decreased by 5.35% compared to the same period last year.

3、 Future expectations

There is currently no significant fluctuation in the fundamentals of aniline, and the market continues to remain stagnant, with aniline trading sideways.

In August, the domestic polycrystalline silicon market continued its upward trend in late July, with continuous growth. Due to the easing of market supply and demand pressure, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, polycrystalline silicon rose by 4.26% in August. As of the end of the month, the mainstream range of single crystal dense materials with a model of primary solar energy level has been maintained at 70-85000 yuan/ton.

On the supply side, silicon material manufacturers have experienced a decline in production, mainly due to the significant impact of centralized power restrictions on manufacturers’ devices in August, leading to the shutdown of some devices and a certain impact on production. In addition, although the new production capacity of silicon materials has been gradually released, the increment is limited, and the overall inventory is at a low level; The silicon material remained relatively tight throughout August, which is also the main reason why silicon material prices can continue to rise. Due to timely replenishment of downstream silicon wafers, the performance of manufacturers in signing orders is optimistic; Downstream silicon wafers have seen a rebound in demand for silicon materials. The easing of supply pressure is the main reason why silicon material prices have bottomed out.

On the demand side, the market demand gradually followed up in August, and the downstream silicon wafer operating rate remained high, supporting the demand for silicon materials. Especially though there are high temperature power restrictions in summer, the actual output impact is not significant for silicon wafer manufacturers. The operating rate of silicon wafer enterprises is relatively stable, which brings benefits to silicon material procurement. The quotation for silicon wafers has been repeatedly raised, with the price of single crystal M10 rising from 2.95 yuan at the beginning of the month to 3.35 yuan at the end of the month, and G12 single crystal silicon wafers rising from 3.9 yuan to 4.35 yuan. But in the future, the trend of increasing silicon wafer inventory may create constraints on prices in the short term; From the perspective of terminal demand, there is no significant increase in the procurement demand for silicon wafers in the battery and component sectors; This may result in the price increase of silicon material being difficult to maintain for too long.

Future forecast: The supply of silicon materials in the market will remain reasonable and stable in the near future, but there is also a risk of inventory accumulation in the future as the release of new production capacity increases. Moreover, there has not been much improvement in demand, so the tight supply of silicon materials may gradually ease, and there is little possibility of a retaliatory rebound in the future. Polycrystalline silicon analysts from Business Society believe that prices are expected to maintain a narrow adjustment pattern in the near future.

On August 30, 2023, the cash and tax inclusive prices of magnesium ingots (99.9%, non pickling, simple packaging) from various main production areas in China have been running smoothly, with an overall range of 22500 to 22800 yuan/ton. Real order negotiations are the main focus.

The specific price ranges for each region are as follows:

Ex-factory spot exchange including tax in Fugu area is 22500-22600 yuan/ton; Current exchange in Taiyuan area is 22600-22700 yuan/ton; The spot exchange in Wenxi area is 22700-22800 yuan/ton; The current exchange in Ningxia is 22500-22600 yuan/ton.

Magnesium ingots are native magnesium ingots according to the national standard (GB/T3499-2011); Non acid washed, non wooden pallets and non paid acceptance price, with actual order negotiation as the main approach.

Overview of the trend of metal magnesium in August

In August, the magnesium ingot market was relatively strong, with an increase of 7.24%. Follow up on downstream demand in August, with active inquiries for overseas orders. The factory has low inventory and insufficient production in the main production area, resulting in magnesium factories quoting too high.

In terms of factories, they have a strong mentality of being reluctant to sell at a high price. At present, there is no inventory pressure in the factory, and the resumption of production by manufacturers in the Fugu area is uncertain. With the support of downstream procurement, the magnesium factory’s quotation is mainly stable.

In terms of demand, as the summer break abroad is coming to an end, foreign trade demand has followed up, and some domestic orders that are just needed have also followed up one after another. However, the demand support is insufficient, and in the face of recent fluctuations in the market for magnesium ingots, the main focus is still on wait-and-see sentiment. Especially at the end of the month, the fear of high sentiment among downstream customers has become more prominent, making it increasingly difficult for magnesium factories to ship at high prices.

In terms of raw materials, in August, the cost pressure on blue charcoal enterprises continued, and the bottom support strengthened. The enterprise began to continue its previous loss state, coupled with the decrease in the price of medium temperature coal tar, and the blue charcoal market was relatively strong. Starting from the 28th, the coal mines in Yuyang District, Yulin City were ordered to suspend production for rectification, and coal mine safety supervision became stricter. Some coal mines will reduce or suspend production, and coal supply may contract. It is expected that there will be slight fluctuations in the price of blue charcoal in the short term.

In August, the ferrosilicon market was first strong and then weak. On August 30th, the market quotation for ferrosilicon (grade: FeSi75-B; particle size grade/mm: natural block) in Ningxia was around 6750-6800 yuan/ton, with an average market price of 6778 yuan/ton, a monthly increase of 0.11%. The short-term supply of ferrosilicon is difficult to improve, but with cost support, the price of ferrosilicon remains stable.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, given the uncertainty of the current resumption of production time for magnesium factories, each factory maintains low inventory, and manufacturers have strong prices. However, the follow-up of downstream transactions is insufficient, and the market lacks positive factors to support it. It is expected that the short-term price of magnesium ingots will be weak and stable, and the market transaction situation will be closely monitored in the future.

1、 Price trend

Taking the sulfuric acid based rutile titanium dioxide powder, which has a large sales volume in the domestic market, as an example, according to data monitoring by Business Society, the average price of domestic titanium dioxide powder on August 1st was 16000 yuan/ton, and on August 29th it was 16700 yuan/ton. The monthly price increase was 4.38%.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of titanium dioxide increased in August. The increase in domestic trade prices is mostly between 700 to 1000 yuan/ton yuan/ton, while the increase in export prices is around 100 to 130 dollars/ton. At present, the international foreign trade order situation is good, the domestic terminal market is improving, and the downstream demand for titanium dioxide is increasing. The market trading sentiment is active. Up to now, most domestic quotations for rutile titanium dioxide are between 16200-17900 yuan/ton; The quotation for anatase titanium dioxide is around 13800-14500 yuan/ton.

In terms of titanium concentrate, the price of titanium concentrate in the Panxi region continued to rise in August. At present, there is not much inventory on the market, and the spot supply in the market continues to be tight. Downstream titanium dioxide enterprises have active trading activities, with good trading performance in the titanium concentrate market and strong quotations. As of now, the tax-free quotation for grade 38 42 titanium ore is around 1580-1600 yuan/ton, the tax-free quotation for grade 46 10 titanium concentrate is around 2250 yuan/ton, and the quotation for grade 47 20 titanium concentrate is around 2300-2460 yuan/ton. In the short term, the market price of titanium concentrate is mainly stable and the actual transaction price is negotiable.

In terms of sulfuric acid, the domestic sulfuric acid market price surged in August. According to data monitoring by Business Society, the average price of domestic sulfuric acid on August 1st was 160 yuan/ton, and on August 29th it was 294 yuan/ton. The monthly price increase was 83.75%. The upstream sulfur market has recently stabilized at a high level, with good cost support. The downstream market for hydrofluoric acid and titanium dioxide is on the rise, and downstream customers have a good enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid. Duo Zhong Li is good, and the product trend is upward. In the future, it is expected that the domestic sulfuric acid market price may fluctuate slightly, with an average market price of around 310 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society titanium dioxide analysts believe that this month, the price of titanium concentrate in the Panxi region has increased, and the sulfuric acid market prices have skyrocketed, providing strong support for the cost of titanium dioxide. Downstream demand for titanium dioxide has improved, and market trading sentiment is active. Recently, dragon companies have taken the lead in raising prices, while other companies have gradually followed suit, boosting current market confidence and slightly tightening spot prices. It is expected that the trend of titanium dioxide powder will be mainly strong in the short term, depending on downstream market demand. The actual transaction price is negotiated separately.