Market analysis for this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of the 17th, the average price of domestic magnesium ingot market was 20866.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.63% compared to the beginning of the month. This week, the price of magnesium ingots showed a first decline and then a stable operation. At the beginning of the week, some factories lowered prices to ship due to weak downstream demand and the fermenting news of factory resumption in the Fugu region; In the later part of the week, magnesium prices approached the cost line and factory quotations began to stabilize.

In terms of supply and demand

In terms of supply, there was news of a magnesium factory resuming production at the beginning of the week. It is understood that a Fugu magnesium ingot manufacturer with a daily output of 80 tons has officially started production, and the price of magnesium ingots is constantly decreasing. Due to approaching the cost line, profit margins continue to compress, and the possibility of manufacturers continuing to lower prices decreases. The downstream demand clock has not shown a significant improvement, and the supply and demand pattern is difficult to make significant changes. The magnesium ingot market continues to be under pressure.

In terms of raw materials

This week, the spot market for ferrosilicon is mainly operating steadily, with quotes in the Ningxia region around 6750-6900 yuan/ton, with an average market price of 6875 yuan/ton. The national orchid charcoal market is temporarily stable in operation, and coal prices continue to rise, supporting the cost of orchid charcoal enterprises. Some companies’ shipment situation has improved compared to the previous period, and there has been a small release of inventory. Affected by this, some companies have raised the price of coke by 30 yuan/ton, and the short-term price of blue charcoal has been firm.

Future Market Forecast

The main production area of magnesium ingots is about to resume production, and the output will be further released. However, the demand side is mainly based on demand procurement, and more cautious follow-up is needed. The contradiction between supply and demand in the magnesium market continues. However, considering that magnesium prices have recently approached the cost line and manufacturers have limited room for price concessions, it is expected that the magnesium market will mainly operate in a weak and stable manner in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong has recently fluctuated and fallen. At the beginning of the week, the average production price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong was 5125.00 yuan/ton, and on the weekend, the average production price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong was 5100.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.49%, a month on month decrease of 3.32%, and a year-on-year decrease of 6.13%.

Upstream methanol situation: In terms of supply, global coal supply is stable, domestic imports have increased, and the increase in domestic demand is not enough to support the operation of coal prices at high levels; In terms of demand, the overall pressure on inventory in power plants is relatively low. Currently, the terminal mainly relies on long-term replenishment and replenishment according to demand. The demand for coal in the market is relatively flat, and the overall sentiment is biased towards wait-and-see. The cost side of methanol is influenced by bearish factors. Downstream demand is expected to increase, but fundamental contradictions are still not significant. The domestic methanol market is mainly fluctuating and consolidating.

Recently, the methanol market has been fluctuating and consolidating, with average cost support. Polyformaldehyde manufacturers are shipping normally, and polyformaldehyde analysts from Business Society predict that prices may decline slightly.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the recent (11.1-11.13) mixed xylene market has significantly declined. On November 13th, the benchmark price of mixed xylene was 7250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.09% from 7330 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and the highest point in the cycle was 7350 yuan/ton.

Since then, the arbitrage space between Asia and the United States has narrowed, and the external market price of xylene has decreased

Since the fourth quarter, the demand for mixed blending in North America has continued to decline, the Asia US interest rate gap has severely shrunk, and the price of toluene in Asia has decreased. As of November 13th, the price of isomeric grade xylene in Asia was between $864 and $865 per ton.

There is not much pressure on the supply side of xylene due to a decrease in port inventory

The inventory of mixed xylene remains low, and the supply of goods is still relatively tight, providing support for the mixed xylene market. It is understood that as of November 9th, the total inventory of xylene in East and South China was 19500 tons, a decrease from 24000 tons at the beginning of the month.

Since November, international crude oil prices have fluctuated at a low level, and xylene cost support has weakened

Since November, the overall international crude oil price has declined, weakening the cost support for toluene. As of November 13th, the WTI12 contract closed at $78.51 per barrel; The Brent 01 contract closed at $82.71 per barrel.

PX starts to stabilize xylene and obtain just needed support

The domestic supply of xylene is relatively normal, with a domestic PX operating rate of over 70%. However, there has been little change in spot supply during the maintenance of some xylene units. Recently, the international crude oil price trend has declined, and PX external prices have been affected by this. As of the 9th, the closing prices in Asia were 967-969 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 992-994 dollars/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX devices in Asia has been mainly fluctuating. Overall, the operating rate of xylene devices in the Asian region is around 70%. The supply of PX goods in the Asian region has not changed much, and the domestic xylene market price trend is temporarily stable.

Weak demand for phthalic anhydride and weak support for xylene

The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plants is stable. Currently, the operating rate of phthalic anhydride in China is maintained at over 60%, and the supply of phthalic anhydride goods is relatively sufficient. In addition, the production of naphthalene phthalic anhydride goods is normal, and the price of naphthalene phthalic anhydride has dropped, which has correspondingly impacted the neighboring phthalic anhydride market. Recently, downstream procurement has not been active, and some phthalic anhydride factories have lowered their factory prices, resulting in a sluggish market situation for phthalic anhydride.

Domestic mixed blending demand is gradually entering the off-season and xylene demand support is weakening

Since the fourth quarter, the domestic mixed blending market has entered a low season, and downstream inquiries have been light. The demand for toluene mixed blending continues to weaken. As of November 10th, the gasoline production of Shandong Independent Refinery decreased by 96600 tons compared to mid October, while diesel production decreased by 181000 tons.

Future forecast: Currently, international crude oil prices have been consolidating at a low level in the near future, and the cost of xylene is at a low level; The demand in downstream mixing and other industries continues to weaken, but the supply of xylene is still relatively tight, and it is expected that the xylene market will fluctuate and consolidate in the short term.

Recent price trends of hydrochloric acid

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic hydrochloric acid market prices have slightly declined this week, with the average market price dropping from 157.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 152.50 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 3.17%. The weekend price has dropped by 14.96% year-on-year. On November 12th, the hydrochloric acid commodity index was 40.13, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 70.90% from the cycle’s highest point of 137.89 points (2021-10-26), and an increase of 123.19% from the lowest point of 17.98 points on September 5th, 2012. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Upstream support is average, while downstream demand increases

From the supply side perspective, the domestic hydrochloric acid market prices have slightly declined this week, and manufacturers’ inventory is average.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market has recently stabilized at a low level, with average cost support. The downstream market price of polyaluminum chloride fluctuated and increased, with the market price rising from 1751.25 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 1763.75 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 0.71%. The weekend price decreased by 12.58% year-on-year. The downstream ammonium chloride market slightly increased. The market price increased from 687.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 695.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 1.09%, and the weekend price decreased by 27.42% year-on-year.

Future Market Forecast

In mid to late November, the market price of hydrochloric acid may fluctuate and rise mainly. The upstream liquid chlorine market has slightly increased over the weekend, with increased cost support. The downstream ammonium chloride and polyaluminum chloride markets have slightly increased, indicating a good willingness to purchase downstream. Analysts from Business Society believe that the recent slight fluctuations and gains in the hydrochloric acid market are the main trend.

The acrylic acid market has risen this week. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of November 10th, the average quoted price of acrylic acid in East China was 6050.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.86% compared to Monday’s price.

Factors affecting the price of acrylic acid:

Cost side: According to the commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market has been on the rise since November. On November 9th, the reference price for propylene was 7353.25, an increase of 4.29% compared to November 1st (7050.75). This week, the raw material propylene was relatively strong, and the cost side supported the acrylic acid market strongly.

Supply and demand side: The overall operating rate of acrylic acid has decreased compared to the previous period, and the market supply has shrunk, supporting a high price mentality. Holders have reported an increase in prices, and downstream demand is mainly for follow-up. The wait-and-see sentiment is strong, and the market transaction atmosphere is average.

Acrylic acid analysts from Business Society believe that this week, supported by increased costs and reduced supply, acrylic acid prices have continued to rise. In the short term, cost and supply support still exist, but the enthusiasm for inquiry and procurement on the demand side is average. It is expected that the acrylic acid market will operate at a high level in the short term, and more attention should be paid to market news guidance.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the prices of industrial grade and battery grade lithium carbonate have continued to fall back to the bottom in November. On November 9th, the average domestic mixed price of industrial grade lithium carbonate was 154000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.27% compared to the average price of 159200 yuan/ton on November 1st. On November 9th, the average domestic mixed price of battery grade lithium carbonate was 164000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.42% compared to the average price of 169800 yuan/ton on November 1st.

By observing market changes, it can be seen that the supply and demand pattern of lithium carbonate market remains weak in November, with prices continuously decreasing. The production lines of some large factories on the supply side have been restored from maintenance, and the production scheduling and operating rates have significantly increased. The supply of lithium carbonate in the market has increased, which still puts pressure on the price of lithium carbonate and shows a downward trend. It is reported that the online auction of Lanke Lithium Industry, a major lithium salt manufacturer, sparked heated discussions in the market at the beginning of this month. Most of the fourteen bid lots were sold at 152000 yuan/ton, with a maximum transaction price of 153000 yuan/ton. Therefore, market prices will further decrease.

In terms of demand, the purchasing willingness of the downstream market is still not high, mainly focused on long-term cooperation and customer supply guarantee, with few actual transactions. The current industry chain has deepened expectations of weak terminal demand in the future, and the current lithium salt supply and demand pattern is still characterized by periodic oversupply. Downstream purchases are still only on demand, and spot prices are under pressure under the supply and demand game.

The price of lithium hydroxide is showing a downward trend. Affected by the downward adjustment in lithium carbonate prices, the price of lithium hydroxide is following the downward trend. In addition, the current downstream demand is still weak, and most of the purchases are on demand, with few zero transactions. Therefore, the price continues to decline. In addition to sufficient domestic supply, the import volume of lithium hydroxide has also increased, resulting in a downward pressure on its price.

The downstream price of lithium iron phosphate has slightly decreased, as the prices of the main raw materials lithium salt and iron phosphate have decreased, resulting in a decrease in the production cost of lithium iron phosphate materials. Iron and lithium factories maintain on-demand production, and after initial inventory removal, the inventory pressure of finished products for iron and lithium enterprises has weakened, and the overall market supply is still sufficient. And downstream demand is basically purchased on demand.

In terms of futures, on November 9th, the opening price of the LC2401 contract for lithium carbonate futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 145300 yuan/ton, with a maximum price of 146750 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 0.73%, with 324000 transactions and 106948 positions.

According to lithium carbonate analysts from Business Society, the current lithium carbonate market is still maintaining a downward trend, with only long-term purchases of just needed products in the downstream. There is a strong wait-and-see sentiment towards individual purchases, and downstream enterprises are not optimistic about future demand in the short term. It is expected that lithium carbonate prices will remain weak in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic cocoon silk market prices have slightly rebounded this week (10.28-11.3), maintaining a high range consolidation trend. As of November 3rd, the average spot market price of raw silk in China was 500000 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.59% compared to last week; The average market price of dried cocoons is 163000 yuan/ton, which is the same as last week.

This week, after experiencing a downward adjustment last week, the overall market price of raw silk has slightly rebounded this week. There were mutual ups and downs during the week, but the amplitude was mostly small, continuing to maintain a consolidation trend in the high range of 500000 yuan. The inquiry atmosphere for raw silk in the later part of this week was better than last week, which also led to a demand for goods according to one’s own pace. The transaction price was better than last week, and the overall transaction was average, with some reluctant to sell. On high-quality raw silk, some enterprises continue to sell at a favorable price, while some enterprises are still in a price adjustment with downstream enterprises. The market for silk wool raw materials continues to remain calm.

Autumn cocoons are on the market, entering November, and the national autumn cocoon market volume continues to decline, entering the later stage of phased listing. The fifth batch of autumn cocoons in the main production area of Yizhou, Guangxi and other places is in its final stages, with prices mostly unchanged from the previous days. At the same time, the purchasing unit has also strengthened cocoon quality control in the later stage of the cocoon listing. The prices in other parts of Guangxi are also basically the same as last week.

Compared to the previous hot trend, the weaving process appears relatively deserted. The domestic and foreign sales orders are limited, especially the overall number of distinctive export orders is not many. It is difficult to raise prices, and some may offer a counteroffer. In areas such as Hangzhou, Jiahu, and other areas, except for some highlight enterprises and some highlight fabrics such as velvet, fragrant cloud yarn, and jacquard, the order volume of conventional fabrics continues to perform average. At the same time, mid to back-end enterprises such as weaving are also striving to innovate their products, integrate with fashion, integrate across borders, and promote marketing channels, actively promoting the smooth transmission of the industrial chain.

At present, the front-end autumn cocoon acquisition is nearing its end, and the annual acquisition prices remain high, with some regions reaching new highs. With the support of high cocoon costs, the decline in raw silk prices in the later stage will not be significant. The overall order shortage in the downstream market is insufficient, and most factories adopt measures to reduce inventory, such as reducing the number of units, purchasing according to demand, and reducing inventory. The quotation is mainly based on a one-time price. Raw silk lacks sufficient support and lacks strength in its upward trend. In terms of stage, the industry will further tend to be desolate in recent years, and it is difficult to have a trend upward trend in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic market price of ortho phthalic anhydride continued to decline this week. As of the weekend, the quotation for ortho phthalic anhydride was 7712.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.74% from the beginning of the week price of 8012.5 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year decrease of 18.28%.

Supply side: Stable operation of the device and sufficient supply of goods

The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plants is stable. Currently, the operating rate of phthalic anhydride in China remains at over 60%, and the supply of phthalic anhydride goods is relatively sufficient. In addition, the production of naphthalene phthalic anhydride goods is normal, and the price of naphthalene phthalic anhydride has dropped, which has correspondingly impacted the neighboring phthalic anhydride market. Recently, downstream procurement has been inactive, and some phthalic anhydride factories have continuously lowered their factory prices, resulting in a continuous decline in the phthalic anhydride market.

Cost side: The trend of neighboring benzene is declining, and cost support is insufficient

This week, the domestic price trend of ortho benzene has been continuously declining. As of the end of the month, the price of ortho benzene was 8000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.44% compared to the beginning of the week’s price of 8200 yuan/ton. The ortho benzene supply is normal, and the operation of on-site devices is stable. This week, the crude oil price trend has declined, and the mixed xylene price has correspondingly decreased, leading to a decrease in raw material prices. As a result, the domestic price trend of ortho benzene has fallen, and the decline in ortho benzene market has brought a negative impact on the phthalic anhydride market, The market price trend of phthalic anhydride has declined.

Demand side: DOP market mainly focuses on on-demand procurement

The downstream DOP market prices have continued to decline, with prices as of the weekend at 11191.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.25% compared to the beginning of the week at 11333.33 yuan/ton. Domestic DOP enterprises have maintained their operations, and domestic DOP supply is normal. However, plasticizer enterprises have lost profits, plasticizer manufacturers have started with low loads, and plasticizer supply is still tight. Downstream demand is weak, and the mainstream price of DOP has dropped to 11100-11200 yuan/ton. The plasticizer market is not good, which is unfavorable for the phthalic anhydride market, The market price of phthalic anhydride continues to decline.

Looking at the future market, it is expected that the crude oil price range has fluctuated recently, and the price trend of ortho xylene has declined. In addition, the downstream plasticizer market is not good, and the purchasing enthusiasm of the plasticizer industry is not high. As a result, it is expected that the market price of ortho phthalic anhydride will decrease slightly.

In October, domestic polycrystalline silicon experienced a significant decline due to fluctuations. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the monthly decline of single crystal dense materials is 1.93%. The main reason is that the downstream market generally resists high prices, leading to an increase in supply and a buildup of inventory in enterprises, weakening bargaining power, and reducing prices to clear inventory. According to data from Business Society. As of the end of the month, the mainstream range of single crystal dense materials with a model of primary solar energy level has been maintained at 70-75000 yuan/ton.

On the supply side, silicon material manufacturers have maintained a reasonable level of operation, and devices that were previously shut down due to power constraints have been operating one after another. The superposition of new production units continuously releases production, bringing about an increase in supply, completely reversing the supply and demand pattern, and gradually revealing oversupply. In addition, there is a heavy wait-and-see sentiment at the downstream Lajing end, and actual transactions were less than expected. This month, large silicon material factories have all experienced a backlog phenomenon.

On the demand side, the market demand in October was relatively weak, and the overall inventory of silicon wafers continued to rise. The market entered a stage of accumulation, and some second tier silicon wafer manufacturers showed a clear willingness to reduce production. The profits of silicon wafer factories were compressed to a low level, and most of the crystal drawing factories have reduced their procurement frequency to force silicon material manufacturers to lower prices. The overall transaction within the month was average, and the competition between upstream and downstream silicon material and silicon wafer manufacturers intensified. The quotation of silicon wafers began to accelerate in the middle of the month, and as of the end of the month, the decline in model M10 single crystal silicon wafers was significant, with a monthly drop of 0.95 yuan, a decrease of nearly 30%. The mainstream transaction price fell to 2.40 yuan per wafer; The price of G12 single crystal silicon chip has dropped by 0.8 yuan, and the current mainstream transaction price is 3.40 yuan per chip.

From the demand for downstream battery cells, it can be seen that the production of downstream battery cells has remained stable, but there are signs of a slowdown in downstream component procurement. It is not ruled out that prices will continue to decline in the future. The overall price decline in October was not significant. From the perspective of terminal components, the demand for overseas projects is mainly reduced, which will become a demand constraint. However, the demand for centralized installation in China is still on the rise, which ensures that there will not be too much fluctuation in demand. Overall, it is mainly balanced.

Future Market Forecast: The supply pressure in the silicon material market has increased in the near future, and the accumulated inventory in the later stage has not ended. There is still a possibility for enterprises to continue to lower prices. Moreover, there has not been much improvement in demand, so the contradiction of silicon material oversupply is difficult to alleviate in the short term, and it is expected that silicon material will continue to operate in a weak manner.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic 1 # tin ingot market experienced a wide range of fluctuations in October 2023. The average price in the domestic market was 218310 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 213760 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly decrease of 2.08%.

On October 30th, the base metal index was 1192 points, an increase of 12 points compared to yesterday, a decrease of 26.24% from the cycle’s highest point of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 85.67% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

On October 30th, the tin commodity index was 109.49, an increase of 1.52 points from yesterday, a decrease of 41.67% from the cycle’s highest point of 187.70 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 155.46% from the lowest point of 42.86 points on December 9th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present).

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the monthly K-bar chart, it can be seen that the recent fluctuations in tin prices have been relatively small. From the K-bar chart of the week, it can be seen that the tin market has been declining for five consecutive weeks, with a positive trend and a negative trend in recent times.

In October 2023, the tin ingot market experienced a wide range of fluctuations, ranging from 21200 to 21850 yuan/ton. During the month, the market mainly followed macroeconomic factors and was less affected by the supply and demand side. During the month, the spot market showed slightly light trading, and the market replenished inventory as needed. The main reason is that in the early stage, most downstream enterprises actively replenished their inventory when the tin price was low. Currently, the main focus is on consuming inventory in the factory, and the willingness to replenish inventory is still low. In terms of import data, the import of tin ore in September plummeted sharply, with a year-on-year decrease of 54.79% and a month on month decrease of 73.18%. However, in the early stage, the import volume in the domestic market was relatively large, so the short-term impact on the domestic market was limited. With the weakening of foreign markets and the opening of import markets, domestic import sources have increased, and the market is expected to have a decent supply. In terms of domestic supply, the operation of smelters has been relatively stable recently, and the operating rate has not changed much. However, the import market has performed well. With the weakening of the overseas market and the continuous high level of overseas inventory, the market is expected to have more imported tin ingots entering the domestic market, and the market is expected to have sufficient supply in the future. In terms of demand, there is currently no substantial improvement in the downstream market, and future expectations are still weak. Overall, under high inventory pressure, the tin ingot market is under pressure and downward trend.

Related data:

According to data from the General Administration of Customs, the import volume of tin ore sand and its concentrate in September 2023 was 7263 tons (equivalent to 3276 metal tons), a year-on-year decrease of 54.79% and a month on month decrease of 73.18%.

According to data from the World Bureau of Metals Statistics (WBMS), the global refined tin production in August 2023 was 26200 tons, with a consumption of 27500 tons and a supply shortage of 13000 tons; From January to August 2023, the global refined tin production was 226000 tons, with a consumption of 218400 tons and an oversupply of 7600 tons. In August 2023, the global tin ore production was 21400 tons; The global tin ore production from January to August 2023 was 195300 tons.