According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the 1 # electrolytic manganese market remained stable this week (December 18th to December 25th), while the market price in East China remained stable at 13900 yuan/ton on December 25th.

In terms of manganese ore: This week, the manganese ore market prices experienced a temporary rebound, with silicon manganese futures rising at the beginning of the week and increased confidence among traders. Trading in South Africa’s semi carbonic acid was particularly active. With the decrease in port inventory and the gradual concentration of cargo rights, the sentiment of miners to hold up prices remained unchanged, and prices continued to rise. Some traders closed off and did not report, showing a mentality of holding up and being hesitant to sell. The overall quotation has an increase of about 1-1.5 yuan/ton, making it more difficult to negotiate in the market, It is difficult to inquire about low-priced sources of goods, and actual transactions have followed up. The price of oxidized ore also rose at the end of the week.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the weekly and monthly electrolytic manganese K-bar charts above, it can be seen that prices have been declining for five consecutive months since December 2022. After a slight rebound in May, prices have been declining for three consecutive months since June. The antimony ingot market has fluctuated narrowly since mid August, with a temporary stable operation in November and a slight upward trend in December.

This week, the electrolytic manganese market continued to maintain temporary stability, with spot market prices remaining at 12300-12500 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. There have been no significant changes in supply and demand during the week. Due to the long-term stable operation of the market, spot market trading has been slightly sluggish, and smelters currently have a strong attitude of price support. In terms of demand, downstream steel mills purchase on demand, and the market is waiting for a new round of steel bidding price guidance. Overall, the market lacks clear guidance and sentiment is weak. It is expected that the spot market will operate weakly in the short term, and the market is waiting for a new round of steel bidding price guidance.

Related data:

At the beginning of the week, silicon and manganese futures rose, and there were restrictions on electricity consumption in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia, with slight fluctuations in production. The southern region suffered severe losses, and the scope of production reduction and shutdown continued to expand. Currently, costs are still at a relatively high level. This week, the spot price of silicon and manganese increased by 50-100 yuan/ton. According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the market price of silicon manganese in Ningxia region (specification FeMN68Si18) was around 6150-6250 yuan/ton on December 22, with an average market price of 6215 yuan/ton, up 0.92%.

Steel recruitment situation:

The bidding price for electrolytic manganese in December in Pohang, South Korea is $1780 per ton, an increase of $115 per ton from the bidding price in November. The delivery date is before January 20, 2024.

Related data:

On December 24th, the electrolytic manganese commodity index was 34.68, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 65.32% from the highest point of 100.00 points (2022-03-02) in the cycle, and an increase of 2.57% from the lowest point of 33.81 points on August 14th, 2023. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from March 1, 2022 to present).

On December 24th, the base metal index was 1164 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 27.97% from the highest point in the cycle of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 81.31% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

On December 24th, the non-ferrous index was 1102 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 28.35% from the highest point in the cycle of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and an increase of 81.55% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 51st week of 2023 (12.18-12.22), there were a total of 9 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that showed a month on month increase in commodity prices. The top 3 commodities with the highest increase were aluminum (2.48%), silver (1.99%), and zinc (1.85%). There are a total of 10 products with a month on month decline, and the top 3 products with the largest decline are dysprosium metal (-3.06%), praseodymium neodymium alloy (-2.71%), and dysprosium oxide (-2.62%). The average increase and decrease this week is -0.22%.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8158 yuan/ton on December 18th, and the average price on December 22nd was 8200 yuan/ton. During this period, the quotation increased by 0.51%.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic price of LDPE (2426H) was 9075 yuan/ton on December 18th, and the average price on December 22nd was 9075 yuan/ton. During this period, the quotation was temporarily stable.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic price of HDPE (5000S) was 8575 yuan/ton on December 18th, and the average price on December 22nd was 8500 yuan/ton. During this period, the quotation decreased by 0.87%.

This week, polyethylene prices have fluctuated, with LLDPE prices showing a slight upward trend, LDPE prices mostly remaining stable, and HDPE prices showing a slight downward trend. The rise in international crude oil prices has to some extent supported the polyethylene market on the cost side. There are not many maintenance devices in the enterprise, and short maintenance is the main focus, with sufficient supply of polyethylene. Recently, the operating rate of packaging film companies has improved, and the demand for orders has slightly improved, mainly driven by holiday demand. Agricultural film is in the off-season of demand, and downstream market demand is poor. Due to significant supply side pressure and weak demand, HDPE prices have been lowered.

On December 22nd, the opening price of the polyethylene l2405 contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 8220 yuan, and the closing price was 8240 yuan, up 30 yuan. The highest price was 8279 yuan, and the lowest was 8186 yuan, up 0.37%. This week, the trend of futures is relatively strong, driving up the polyethylene market.

The cost side and recent strong futures trend have boosted the LLDPE price trend. Overall, the demand side is mainly based on rigid demand, and low market transactions are still acceptable. The boost of other varieties is limited, and they are still mainly weak. It is expected that polyethylene may experience narrow range fluctuations.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the prices of industrial grade and battery grade lithium carbonate are still in a downward trend this week, but the price reduction has slightly slowed down. On December 21st, the average domestic mixed price of industrial grade lithium carbonate was 97400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.88% compared to the average price of 102400 yuan/ton on December 17th. On December 21st, the average domestic mixed price of battery grade lithium carbonate was 106600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.33% compared to the average price of 112600 yuan/ton on December 17th.

By observing market changes, it can be seen that the price of lithium carbonate has continued to decline this week, but the magnitude of the price decline has slightly eased. In terms of supply, the domestic lithium carbonate market is still dominated by long-term transactions, but towards the end of the year, some lithium salt enterprises still have the idea of shipping due to inventory pressure, and prices are still being lowered. Some lithium salt enterprises still have a strong attitude of price support. The supply of lithium carbonate in the market is still sufficient, and major lithium salt enterprises maintain stable production. Customs data shows that approximately 17000 tons of lithium carbonate were imported in November, and Chile still exported about 13600 tons of lithium carbonate in November. In the short term, the domestic supply of lithium carbonate is still high.

In terms of demand, there is currently no increase in orders from downstream positive electrode material enterprises, and the mentality of reducing raw material inventory before the year is still present. The general strategy of long-term procurement is maintained, and their target price for bulk procurement is relatively low. Under the current price situation, there is little willingness to purchase bulk orders. However, some trading companies continue to follow the strategy of selling electricity and carbon at a discount of around 1000 yuan/ton, but with few transactions, they are more inclined to engage in partial warehousing in the future.

The price of lithium hydroxide is showing a downward trend. Due to the downward trend in the upstream industrial grade lithium carbonate market, the price of upstream spodumene concentrate is weak, dragging down the market mentality. Downstream procurement is slow to follow up, with a cautious focus on demand and a strong wait-and-see attitude. Holders are stimulating orders with low prices, and the focus of negotiations in the lithium hydroxide market is weakening.

The downstream price of lithium iron phosphate has declined due to the downward trend in lithium salt prices, which has driven down the cost of iron lithium materials. Due to a decrease in order volume, some iron lithium enterprises have reduced production based on sales, resulting in high inventory and slow destocking. Power end and energy storage end battery cell companies maintain a rigid demand for pick-up, with a focus on clearing finished product inventory, and a decrease in the purchase volume of lithium iron phosphate materials.

In terms of futures, on December 21st, the opening price of the LC2407 main contract was 100000 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 101850 yuan/ton and a closing price of 97600 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 4.22%. The transaction volume was 322700 lots, and the position was 158076 lots.

According to analysts from Shengyishe Lithium Carbonate, the current spot market for lithium carbonate is still in a state of oversupply, and prices remain weak. However, some lithium salt enterprises engaged in external lithium mining are still in a loss making state, and some lithium salt enterprises have low finished product inventory. These lithium salt enterprises have recently shown a stronger attitude towards selling at high prices, and the decline in spot market transaction prices is gradually slowing down. It is expected that the spot price of lithium carbonate will remain weak in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from December 11th to 18th, the domestic ethanol price remained at 6800 yuan/ton, with a stable month on month and a year-on-year decrease of 1.98%. In some regions, freight rates have slightly increased, and factory shipments are relatively weak. Snowy weather in some areas affects delivery time, prices remain stable, orders are shipped, and transportation vehicles are difficult to find. The overall weakness of the domestic ethanol market is mainly due to consolidation.

On the cost side, as we enter mid December, the market volume of corn in the production areas continues to increase, and the weak corn prices have led to an increase in the intention of grain trading entities to liquidate their exports. In addition, the new season of corn production has once again increased, and the domestic corn market supply has become more relaxed. Ports and deep processing corn inventories are relatively sufficient. Downstream trading entities have a strong wait-and-see attitude, and feed demand continues to be weak. Under the pressure of strong market supply and weak demand, The domestic corn market prices continue to be weak. The cost side of ethanol is influenced by bearish factors.

On the supply side, there is a significant difference in the operating rates of production enterprises in different regions, with 38.54% operating in East China and 91.04% operating in Northeast China; The operating rate in South China and Southwest China is 19.65%; Short term domestic ethanol production and stable food supply in Northeast China. The ethanol supply in East China has increased due to an increase in port cargo arrivals. Coal based ethanol supply is stable. Or new production capacity may be put into operation, and by-products will soon be produced. The supply side of ethanol is affected by bearish factors.

On the demand side, most ethyl acetate factories maintain normal production status. There is a possibility of recovery for the ethyl acetate factory, and the ethyl acetate project in Anhui is awaiting production. Baijiu just needs to be purchased. The short-term demand for ethanol is mixed.

In the future market forecast, the cost is bearish, and the supply and demand in different regions are greatly affected by weather factors. Ethanol analysts from Business Society predict that the short-term domestic ethanol market situation may be dominated by weak consolidation.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the mainstream price of styrene in Shandong has recently fallen. At the beginning of the week, the average price of styrene in Shandong was 82833.33 yuan/ton, while on the weekend, the average price of styrene in Shandong was 8266.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.20%. The price has increased by 1.85% compared to the same period last year.

styrene

Recently, the market price of styrene has fallen. From the above chart, it can be seen that the price of styrene has mainly decreased in the past month, and the decline in the market this week is greater than the increase. The price of raw material pure benzene has fallen, with poor cost support, and downstream demand has not improved. The spot trading of styrene is weak, and the market is fluctuating and falling.

In terms of raw materials, the price of pure benzene fluctuated slightly this week, with Sinopec’s price of pure benzene at 6800 yuan/ton (synchronized with prices in Shandong and Hebei regions). The trading atmosphere in the Shandong market is relatively light, but there are also traders who normally purchase and deliver orders within the week, resulting in overall poor transactions.

On the downstream side, the prices of styrene in the three major downstream markets have fluctuated. The domestic PS market continues to decline, with an average PS price of 9600 yuan/ton at the beginning of this week and 9500 yuan/ton over the weekend, a decrease of 1.04% and a decrease of 4.36% compared to the same period last year. The cost of PS is weak, and the market is mostly wait-and-see. It is expected that the domestic price of PS (polystyrene) will mainly fluctuate downward in the short term.

The EPS market has remained stable this week, with an average price of 10125.00 yuan/ton for ordinary materials. Upstream support has weakened, with a focus on market transactions. Terminal profits are meager, and buying follow-up is limited. Overall transactions are average, with a strong wait-and-see atmosphere on the market. Buying is mainly in demand.

Recently, the domestic ABS market has experienced slight fluctuations. The high load in the ABS industry has continued, and the production of enterprises has remained stable. The weekly total production has slightly increased, and the inventory position has significantly increased. The on-site supply of goods is abundant, and the profitability of the enterprise is poor. The drag on the spot market by the supply side has expanded, resulting in high supply pressure. It is expected that the ABS market will struggle to overcome the supply-demand contradiction in the short term and may maintain a weak consolidation trend.

Recently, crude oil prices have fallen, with poor cost support. Units such as Shell and Zhejiang Petrochemical are about to restart, and there is an expectation of an increase in styrene inventories. It is expected that the short-term volatility and decline in the styrene market will be the main factors.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of domestic ammonium sulfate market was 776 yuan/ton on December 11th, and 776 yuan/ton on December 15th. The domestic ammonium sulfate market price remained stable this week.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic ammonium sulfate market price remained stable this week. At present, there is no positive news in the market, and the market is watching and operating. Domestic and international demand is weak, with downstream rigid procurement being the main focus. Downstream and distributors have a cautious attitude, often restocking at low prices, and have a resistance to high prices. As of December 15th, the mainstream market price for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Hebei Province is around 780 yuan/ton. The mainstream ex factory quotation for ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 760-790 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to analysts from Shengyishe Ammonium Sulfate, the price trend of ammonium sulfate has stabilized recently, and there has been no improvement on the demand side. Downstream and dealers are mainly watching. It is expected that the domestic ammonium sulfate market will stabilize and operate in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in China was 5433 yuan/ton on December 8th, and the average market price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in China was 5433 yuan/ton on December 14th. The price of chlorinated paraffin remained stable this week.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of chlorinated paraffin remained stable this week. This week, the price of raw material liquid wax fluctuated slightly, while the price of liquid chlorine decreased, and the cost support was average. At present, downstream procurement is on demand, with limited market trading, and manufacturers and distributors are mainly observing and stabilizing prices. As of December 14th, the ex factory price of 52 environmentally friendly chlorinated paraffins in Anhui region is around 5600 yuan/ton, and the national standard market price of 52 chlorinated paraffins in Shandong region is around 5000-5500 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material liquid wax, the price of liquid wax fell first and then rose this week, mainly with slight fluctuations. Liquid wax fluctuated with the crude oil market. In terms of raw material liquid chlorine, the price of liquid chlorine has dropped this week. At present, the device is operating normally, and on-site trading is still acceptable, with transaction negotiations being the main focus.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to analysts from Shengyishe Chlorinated Paraffin, the market for chlorinated paraffin raw materials has recently experienced a slight fluctuation and weakened, leading to a weakening of cost support. At present, the market demand is weak, with primary demand orders. It is expected that the price of chlorinated paraffin will be weak in the short term, and it is recommended to pay attention to changes in cost and demand.

According to data monitored by Business Society, as of December 11th, the average price of industrial grade premium cyclohexane in China was 7133.33 yuan/ton, which is slightly weak compared to the same period last week. The price has decreased by 2.28% compared to the same period last week. The overall market supply and demand are balanced, with manufacturers mainly offering discounts and taking orders.

The market price of cyclohexane has slightly declined, with the mainstream price around 7133.33 yuan/ton, a 2.28% decrease compared to the same period last week. The mainstream manufacturer’s quotation range is maintained at around 7000 yuan/ton, and downstream procurement is on demand. The willingness to stock up is not strong, the demand is average, and upstream support is weak.

Chemical index: On December 11th, the chemical index was 874 points, a decrease of 3 points from yesterday, a decrease of 37.57% from the highest point in the cycle of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and an increase of 46.15% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

Business Society’s cyclohexane analyst believes that in the short term, the cyclohexane market will mainly operate steadily, with a narrow and weak range.

Recent trends in urea prices

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic urea market prices have slightly declined this week, with urea prices dropping from 2601.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2568.33 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 1.28%, and a year-on-year decrease of 6.40% at the end of the week. On December 10th, the urea commodity index was 119.46, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 21.58% from the highest point in the cycle of 152.33 points (2022-05-15), and an increase of 114.86% from the lowest point of 55.60 points on August 17th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to present)

Cost support is average, downstream demand weakens, and urea supply is sufficient

From the supply side perspective, the mainstream price of urea in China has slightly declined this week.

From the data of the upstream and downstream industry chains, it can be seen that there have been ups and downs in the urea upstream market this week. The price of liquefied natural gas has dropped significantly, from 5930.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 5734.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 3.31%, and a year-on-year decrease of 20.29% over the weekend. The price of smokeless coal has significantly increased, with the price of Yangquan smokeless coal (washing medium block) increasing by 405 yuan/ton to 1505 yuan/ton over the weekend; The price of liquid ammonia has significantly increased, rising from 3813.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 4056.67 yuan/ton over the weekend, an increase of 6.38%, and a year-on-year decrease of 17.04% over the weekend. Upstream raw material prices fluctuate, providing moderate support for urea prices.

From a demand perspective: Agricultural demand has weakened, while industrial demand is average. Agriculture has entered the off-season. Composite fertilizer, board, and melamine enterprises generally start construction, with a focus on procurement for immediate needs. This week, the downstream price of melamine in urea slightly decreased, dropping from 7300.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7250.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.68%. From the perspective of supply, some enterprises have completed maintenance, resulting in a further increase in daily urea production and sufficient supply.

Slight fluctuation and decline in the future market

In mid to late December, the domestic urea market may experience a slight fluctuation and decline. Business Society urea analysts believe that the upstream urea market has ups and downs, and the cost support for urea is average. Downstream industrial demand is average, while agricultural demand is weakening. The daily production of urea is around 180000 tons, with sufficient supply. In the future, urea may experience a narrow range of fluctuations and decline.

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of Shengyishe, as of December 8th, the average price of high-quality rubber grade white carbon black in China was 5933.33 yuan/ton. This week, the market price of white carbon black remained stable, with the mainstream price currently around 6000 yuan/ton.

This week, the market price of white carbon black has remained stable, with the mainstream price around 6000 yuan/ton. The negotiation atmosphere is still good, and downstream demand is mainly for procurement, with average demand and weak stocking enthusiasm. Manufacturers mainly offer discounts and take orders, and the number of new orders is limited.

Chemical index: On December 7th, the chemical index was 876 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 37.43% from the highest point in the cycle of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and an increase of 46.49% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

Business Society’s white carbon black analyst believes that in the short term, the white carbon black market is stable, with a weak trend, and the mainstream price is around 6000 yuan/ton.