According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the propane market in 2023 experienced a roller coaster trend, with a brief rise in the first half of the year before entering a downward channel. After rebounding at the bottom of the second half of the year, it began to fluctuate within the range until the end of the year. On January 1st, the average price of propane in Shandong was 5082 yuan/ton, and the year-end average price was 5618 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year increase of 10.54%. The lowest point of prices for the whole year occurred in early July, a decrease of 25.61% compared to January 1st

In January, the domestic propane market had a good start, with an overall improvement compared to the end of 2022. At the beginning of the month, due to the low prices in the early stage, enterprises effectively destocked, and after the holiday, downstream began to replenish goods in stages, resulting in a significant increase in demand. At the same time, the recent low volume of ships arriving at ports has led to a decrease in market supply, and propane prices have begun to rise strongly. The market started to sharply decline in February, as propane prices rose to a high level and downstream follow-up was slow, leading to resistance. Coupled with the continuous decline in CP prices, it suppressed the mentality of business owners. The peak season for downstream chemical and combustion demand has passed, and some chemical products have been affected by high cost, resulting in reduced profits and a decrease in demand. The continuous decline in propane prices continued until the end of June. In the second half of the year, as prices fell to a low level, downstream buyers entered the market on dips, and the propane market entered a price increase trend earlier than in previous years. Market purchases and sales improved, while import prices stopped falling and rose, jointly helping to increase propane prices. Starting from September, the traditional peak season began. Due to the early depletion of favorable conditions in the early stage, downstream PDH units had a longer loss cycle, with low operating levels. Propane stabilized from rising, and then prices fluctuated within the 5200-5600 range due to supply and demand contradictions, continuing until the end of the year.

According to the monthly K-bar chart of Shandong propane in 2023, the increase in January was as high as 26.71%, followed by a gradual increase in decline. In the second half of the year, there was a significant rebound, and after the rebound, the increase gradually decreased. In the peak demand season in October, it even fell, and then began to stabilize.

From the trend of propane prices in the past three years, it can be seen that propane prices reached their lowest point in nearly three years in July 2023, and then began to rebound strongly. The upward trend appeared relatively early. It is reported that there was a significant increase in October 2012, with an increase of over 20% compared to September. Saudi Aramco’s CP in October announced that propane was $800/ton, an increase of $135/ton from the previous month; The onshore cost of propane is equivalent to 6175 yuan/ton, and the significant increase in CP directly drives the rise in domestic propane prices.

In 2023, CP prices showed a V-shaped trend, with the highest point appearing at 790 yuan/ton in February and the lowest point appearing at 400 yuan/ton in July. Prices stabilized from October onwards. From the trend of domestic propane, the price gradually fell in the first half of the year, increased first and then stabilized in the second half of the year. The lowest point of the price also appeared in July, indicating that the price of international imported propane has a direct impact on the domestic market price.

Market forecast: From a cost perspective, crude oil, as an indirect upstream of propane, showed a divergence in its trend in October 2023. Oil prices began to fluctuate and fall in late October, while propane fluctuated at a high level until the end of the year under the support of the peak combustion demand season. The price of crude oil still largely affects the trend of propane, and we closely monitor the international oil price trend in 2024. From the perspective of demand, as the main downstream PDH device, the industry has been operating at a loss since August 2023, with less than 70% of the industry’s overall production capacity. It is expected to add about 10 million tons of new production capacity in 2024. In the current competitive landscape of the industry, it is difficult for all PDH devices to be put into operation as scheduled next year. Moreover, it is not difficult to see from the propane demand market in 2023 that high prices suppress demand, and there is significant resistance to price increases, making high prices short-lived. Therefore, opportunities and challenges coexist in the propane market in 2024. Under the multiple influences of internal and external factors, it is expected that the center of gravity of propane prices may continue to decline compared to 2023. Taking the Shandong market as an example, it may fluctuate within the range of 6000-8000 yuan/ton in 2024, with a high-frequency fluctuation range of 6800-7300 yuan/ton and an annual average price around 7200 yuan/ton. It is expected that the market price will have a low point in the first quarter and a high point in the third quarter.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the mainstream market price of urea in Shandong Province fluctuated and fell in December. Urea prices dropped from 2601.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 2485 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 4.48%, and a year-on-year decrease of 8.87% at the end of the month.

On December 28th, the urea commodity index was 115.50, a decrease of 1.32 points from yesterday, a decrease of 24.18% from the highest point in the cycle of 152.33 points (2022-05-15), and an increase of 107.73% from the lowest point of 55.60 points on August 17th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to present)

From the supply side perspective, the mainstream market price of urea in Shandong dropped significantly in December.

Cost side: Upstream market drops significantly

The price of liquefied natural gas dropped significantly in December, from 6556 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 5510 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 15.95%, and a year-on-year decrease of 9.08% at the end of the month. The price of Yangquan anthracite (washed fast) rose first and then fell, dropping from 1110 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 960 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton. The price of liquid ammonia first rose and then fell, dropping from 3863.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 3623.33 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 6.21%. The highest point was 4056.67 yuan/ton on December 9th, with a maximum decrease of 10.68% within the month. At the end of the month, prices decreased by 21.63% year-on-year. Overall, the upstream market for urea has experienced a significant decline, with insufficient cost support.

On the demand side: The price of melamine fluctuates and rises

From the demand side, agricultural demand has weakened, industrial demand is average, and urea exports are currently not favorable. Agricultural sporadic fertilization. The operating rate of compound fertilizer plants is average, and their enthusiasm for purchasing urea is normal. Board and melamine enterprises generally start construction, with a focus on procurement for immediate needs. The price of melamine fluctuated and increased in December, rising from 7325 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 7475 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 2.05%. From a supply perspective, maintenance companies have resumed production, with a daily urea production of around 180000 tons, indicating sufficient supply.

In the future, the urea market may experience a slight fluctuation and decline in the first half of January. The prices of smokeless coal and liquefied natural gas have dropped significantly, with insufficient cost support. The daily production of urea is about 180000 tons, with sufficient supply. Agricultural demand is average, while industrial demand is predominant. In the future, urea may experience a slight fluctuation and decline.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the price of acetic acid in December first rose and then fell. As of December 29th, the price was 3200 yuan/ton, which was 125 yuan/ton lower than the beginning of the month’s acetic acid price of 3325 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.75%.

As of the end of the month, the price details of acetic acid market in various regions of China in December are as follows:

Region/ December 1st/ December 15th/ December 29th

South China region/ 3175 yuan/ton/. 3100 yuan/ton/. 3050 yuan/ton

North China region/ 3275 yuan/ton/ 3175 yuan/ton/ 3000 yuan/ton

Shandong region/ 3275 yuan/ton/ 3300 yuan/ton/ 3100 yuan/ton

Jiangsu region/ 3325 yuan/ton/ 3175 yuan/ton/ 3025 yuan/ton

Zhejiang region/ 3425 yuan/ton/ 3275 yuan/ton/ 3125 yuan/ton

In December, the acetic acid market showed a weak trend and prices fluctuated. At the beginning of the month, frequent malfunctions occurred in the acetic acid plant, causing acetic acid enterprises to operate at reduced loads, resulting in low inventory levels among manufacturers and a significant increase in acetic acid prices; Subsequently, the faulty equipment of the main factories in East China gradually recovered, and the market supply increased. At the same time, the northern region was affected by rainy and snowy weather, with limited transportation and accumulated inventory from manufacturers. There was a strong intention to discharge inventory, but downstream demand was weak. Coupled with the influence of buying up and not buying down sentiment, the market was clearly bearish, and the price of acetic acid was significantly reduced; In the latter half of the year, the failure of the acetic acid plant occurred again, and the operating rate of enterprises decreased. The price of acetic acid rebounded and increased, but due to limited demand, the price was lowered again at the end of the month.

The methanol market for raw materials fluctuates widely, and the price trend shows an “N” shape. As of December 29th, the average price in the domestic market was 2450 yuan/ton, which is a 2.20% decrease compared to the price of 2505 yuan/ton on December 1st. In the first half of the month, the expectation of methanol imports remained high, which suppressed market prices to a certain extent. Downstream purchases were mainly based on demand, and overall market price changes were limited. After the reduction of methanol prices, there was weak volatility; In the middle of the month, some regions were affected by heavy snowfall, resulting in limited transportation and slower delivery speeds. As a result, social inventory in consumer areas was low, leading to an increase in downstream delivery prices; In the latter half of the year, due to weak demand, methanol shipments were not smooth, and the market situation was weak and downward.

The downstream acetic anhydride market fluctuated and stabilized in December, with a price of 5912.50 yuan/ton on December 29th, an increase of 1.28% from the beginning of the month’s price of 5837.50 yuan/ton. During the month, acetic acid enterprises experienced frequent malfunctions, limited supply of acetic acid, and prices fluctuated. Due to cost constraints, acetic anhydride prices followed a broad consolidation trend. At the end of the month, acetic anhydride enterprises experienced equipment shutdowns, resulting in an increase in acetic anhydride prices. In December, acetic anhydride prices fluctuated and increased.

Analysts from Business Society believe that the operating rate of acetic acid enterprises is relatively high, manufacturers maintain active shipments, downstream purchasing sentiment is weak, demand for acetic acid is limited, sales pressure from acetic acid manufacturers is high, market transactions are insufficient, and the mentality of operators is weak. Under the supply-demand game, it is expected that the acetic acid market will be weak and consolidate in the future, and specific attention will be paid to downstream replenishment in the future.

In some areas of the northwest, the power supply of calcium carbide enterprises is unstable, and the production volume of calcium carbide enterprises has decreased. In addition, some areas are affected by rainy and snowy weather, resulting in poor circulation of calcium carbide and a tight supply of calcium carbide. In December, the factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region slightly increased. The price of calcium carbide increased from 2916.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 2983.33 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 2.29%, and the price at the end of the month decreased by 19.37% year-on-year.

From the supply side perspective, the factory prices of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in the northwest region slightly increased in December.

Cost side: Low price consolidation of blue charcoal

In December, the upstream price of calcium carbide blue charcoal stabilized at a low level, with blue charcoal prices around 1160 yuan/ton. In the short term, the price of blue charcoal remains stable with a weak trend, and the cost support for calcium carbide is average.

On the demand side: Downstream market fluctuations and declines

In December, the downstream PVC market price of calcium carbide fluctuated and fell. The market price of PVC dropped from 5698 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 5688 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 0.18%, and the price at the end of the month decreased by 6.88% year-on-year. The downstream market price of 1,4-butanediol has slightly decreased. The market price of 1,4-butanediol decreased from 9628.57 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 9535.71 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 0.96%, and the price at the end of the month decreased by 2.10% year-on-year. The downstream market of calcium carbide is fluctuating and falling, and downstream demand is weakening.

Looking at the future: In mid to early November, the calcium carbide market may experience a slight decline, with consolidation being the main trend. The upstream raw material blue charcoal prices have stabilized at a low level, and the cost support for calcium carbide is insufficient. The downstream PVC and 1,4-butanediol markets have fluctuated and fallen, and downstream demand has weakened. In the future, the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region may experience a slight fluctuation and decline in mid to early January, with consolidation being the main trend.

As of December 27, 2023, the average price of rubber grade white carbon black in the domestic market was 5933.33 yuan/ton. In 2023, the price of white carbon black increased by 3.19% throughout the year, with a small increase of about 200 yuan/ton. The overall market fluctuation of white carbon black in 2023 was not significant, and the price remained around 6000 yuan/ton. In January 2023, the price was 5750 yuan/ton, and as of December 27, the price was 5933.33 yuan/ton, with a limited range of price fluctuations, In March 2023, prices showed a narrow upward trend and remained stable for a long time thereafter. In the second half of the year, prices began to fluctuate and slightly declined, with a fluctuation range of less than 200 yuan/ton. Currently, the demand for white carbon black in the market has not met expectations, and enterprises are mainly operating under pressure. Will there be a turning point in 2024?

The overall market price fluctuation range of white carbon black in 2023 is limited, always maintained at around 6000 yuan/ton, with a high point in September and an upward trend at the end of August. Entering September, the price showed a fluctuating downward trend from September to November, with a low point at the beginning of the year and a price of 5750 yuan/ton.

In 2023, the overall market for white carbon black will operate steadily with little price fluctuation. The mainstream price has been maintained at around 6000 yuan/ton. Will there be a new turning point for white carbon black in 2024? Due to a series of advantages of white carbon black products, it can be widely used in many fields. White carbon black is used in colored rubber products to replace carbon black for reinforcement to meet the needs of white or translucent products. White carbon black also has super adhesion, tear resistance, heat resistance and aging resistance, so it can also replace part of carbon black in black rubber products to obtain high-quality rubber products, such as off-road tires, engineering tires It has a wide range of uses. Currently, the demand in the automotive industry has not met expectations, and enterprises are operating under pressure. In the past year, prices have not significantly broken through, and costs have fluctuated. The automotive industry may still maintain the current situation in 2024, and the possibility of a significant increase in demand is unlikely. The price of white carbon black needs to be patiently waiting for a turning point.

On December 26th, the white carbon black commodity index was 133.63, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 13.70% from the highest point in the cycle of 154.84 points (2021-12-06), and an increase of 49.46% from the lowest point of 89.41 points on October 7th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-09-01 present).

In 2023, upstream hydrochloric acid prices will continue to operate at a low level, lacking support for the positive effects on white carbon black. The price of hydrochloric acid itself has little impact on white carbon black, and coupled with its continued weakness, there is insufficient downstream demand for white carbon black, which is the main reason affecting the price of white carbon black. Therefore, there is insufficient upstream support and no downstream demand. It is difficult for white carbon black to have any upward momentum

Business Society’s white carbon black analyst believes that white carbon black plays a significant role in the rubber industry. Precipitation based white carbon black is widely used in snow tires, anti slip tires, and green tires. In recent years, the market share of new energy vehicles has increased. However, from the current development perspective, the demand for white carbon black has not met expectations, and it will continue to operate under pressure in 2024.

1、 Price trend

Taking sulfuric acid based rutile type titanium dioxide, which has a large volume of sales in the domestic market, as an example, according to data monitoring from Business Society, the domestic titanium dioxide market declined in December. On December 1st, the average price of titanium dioxide was 16650 yuan/ton/ton, and on December 26th, the average price of titanium dioxide was 16483.33 yuan/ton, with a 1% decrease in price.

2、 Market analysis

The titanium dioxide market in December was average. Overall, the international foreign trade order situation is still good, and the export market remains good. Longqi sent a letter stating that the foreign trade price of titanium dioxide has increased by $100 per ton since January 1, 2024. The domestic terminal market is relatively quiet, with strong downstream wait-and-see sentiment and cautious order acceptance. Manufacturers often deliver early orders, and new orders have limited transactions. The upstream raw material market is at a high level, and titanium dioxide manufacturers are under great pressure. As of now, most domestic quotations for rutile type titanium dioxide are between 16000-17600 yuan/ton; The quotation for rutile titanium dioxide is around 14500-15000 yuan/ton.

According to customs data, the import volume of titanium dioxide in China in November 2023 was 9262.96 tons, a month on month increase of 18.72% and a year-on-year increase of 63.18%; From January to November 2023, the cumulative import of titanium dioxide from China was about 73300 tons, a decrease of 36.90% compared to the same period last year, and the import volume decreased by about 42900 tons.

In November 2023, China’s titanium dioxide exports reached 124900 tons, a month on month increase of 5.10% and a year-on-year increase of 16.54%; From January to November 2023, the cumulative export of titanium dioxide was about 1.4983 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 17.14%, and the export volume increased by about 219200 tons.

In terms of titanium concentrate, the market price of titanium concentrate in the Panxi region fluctuated slightly in December. With the decrease in raw ore supply and the shutdown of large factories. Titanium ore spot prices are slightly tight, and there is no pressure on enterprise inventory. Downstream procurement is still acceptable, and prices at the low-end of the market have slightly increased. As of now, the tax-free quotation for 38-42 grade titanium concentrate is around 1480-1500 yuan/ton, the tax-free quotation for 46 grade 10 titanium concentrate is around 2150-2200 yuan/ton, and the quotation for 47 grade 20 titanium concentrate is around 2350-2480 yuan/ton. In the short term, the market price of titanium concentrate is mainly strong, and the actual transaction price is negotiable.

According to customs data, in November 2023, China imported 370400 tons of titanium ore, an increase of 12.86% year-on-year and 57.82% month on month, with a monthly average price of 287.93 US dollars per ton; From January to November 2023, the cumulative import of titanium ore was 3.9079 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 22.77%, and the import volume increased by about 724700 tons.

In terms of sulfuric acid, the domestic sulfuric acid market prices fell in December. According to monitoring data from Business Society, the average price of sulfuric acid in China was 302 yuan/ton on December 1st, and 278 yuan/ton on November 26th. The price fell by 7.95% during the month. The upstream sulfur market has started to decline slightly, with insufficient cost support. The downstream ammonium phosphate market has slightly declined, and downstream customers have weakened their enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid. The product trend is declining under the contradiction of supply and demand. Business Society sulfuric acid analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic sulfuric acid market is mainly affected by supply and demand, raw materials, and other factors, and the price of sulfuric acid may fluctuate slightly and fall.

3、 Future Market Forecast

The titanium dioxide analyst from Business Society believes that the price of titanium concentrate in Panxi region has fluctuated slightly this month, while the price of sulfuric acid market has fallen. The cost support for titanium dioxide is average. Longqi sent a letter stating that the foreign trade price of titanium dioxide has increased, while Shandong Lubei, Hunan Yutu, and Panzhihua City’s titanium sea have sent letters raising prices, which has to some extent boosted market confidence. It is expected that in the short term, the trend of titanium dioxide will remain stable and mainly focus on consolidation and operation, depending on downstream market demand. The actual transaction price is negotiable.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the 1 # electrolytic manganese market remained stable this week (December 18th to December 25th), while the market price in East China remained stable at 13900 yuan/ton on December 25th.

In terms of manganese ore: This week, the manganese ore market prices experienced a temporary rebound, with silicon manganese futures rising at the beginning of the week and increased confidence among traders. Trading in South Africa’s semi carbonic acid was particularly active. With the decrease in port inventory and the gradual concentration of cargo rights, the sentiment of miners to hold up prices remained unchanged, and prices continued to rise. Some traders closed off and did not report, showing a mentality of holding up and being hesitant to sell. The overall quotation has an increase of about 1-1.5 yuan/ton, making it more difficult to negotiate in the market, It is difficult to inquire about low-priced sources of goods, and actual transactions have followed up. The price of oxidized ore also rose at the end of the week.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the weekly and monthly electrolytic manganese K-bar charts above, it can be seen that prices have been declining for five consecutive months since December 2022. After a slight rebound in May, prices have been declining for three consecutive months since June. The antimony ingot market has fluctuated narrowly since mid August, with a temporary stable operation in November and a slight upward trend in December.

This week, the electrolytic manganese market continued to maintain temporary stability, with spot market prices remaining at 12300-12500 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. There have been no significant changes in supply and demand during the week. Due to the long-term stable operation of the market, spot market trading has been slightly sluggish, and smelters currently have a strong attitude of price support. In terms of demand, downstream steel mills purchase on demand, and the market is waiting for a new round of steel bidding price guidance. Overall, the market lacks clear guidance and sentiment is weak. It is expected that the spot market will operate weakly in the short term, and the market is waiting for a new round of steel bidding price guidance.

Related data:

At the beginning of the week, silicon and manganese futures rose, and there were restrictions on electricity consumption in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia, with slight fluctuations in production. The southern region suffered severe losses, and the scope of production reduction and shutdown continued to expand. Currently, costs are still at a relatively high level. This week, the spot price of silicon and manganese increased by 50-100 yuan/ton. According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the market price of silicon manganese in Ningxia region (specification FeMN68Si18) was around 6150-6250 yuan/ton on December 22, with an average market price of 6215 yuan/ton, up 0.92%.

Steel recruitment situation:

The bidding price for electrolytic manganese in December in Pohang, South Korea is $1780 per ton, an increase of $115 per ton from the bidding price in November. The delivery date is before January 20, 2024.

Related data:

On December 24th, the electrolytic manganese commodity index was 34.68, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 65.32% from the highest point of 100.00 points (2022-03-02) in the cycle, and an increase of 2.57% from the lowest point of 33.81 points on August 14th, 2023. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from March 1, 2022 to present).

On December 24th, the base metal index was 1164 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 27.97% from the highest point in the cycle of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 81.31% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

On December 24th, the non-ferrous index was 1102 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 28.35% from the highest point in the cycle of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and an increase of 81.55% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 51st week of 2023 (12.18-12.22), there were a total of 9 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that showed a month on month increase in commodity prices. The top 3 commodities with the highest increase were aluminum (2.48%), silver (1.99%), and zinc (1.85%). There are a total of 10 products with a month on month decline, and the top 3 products with the largest decline are dysprosium metal (-3.06%), praseodymium neodymium alloy (-2.71%), and dysprosium oxide (-2.62%). The average increase and decrease this week is -0.22%.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8158 yuan/ton on December 18th, and the average price on December 22nd was 8200 yuan/ton. During this period, the quotation increased by 0.51%.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic price of LDPE (2426H) was 9075 yuan/ton on December 18th, and the average price on December 22nd was 9075 yuan/ton. During this period, the quotation was temporarily stable.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic price of HDPE (5000S) was 8575 yuan/ton on December 18th, and the average price on December 22nd was 8500 yuan/ton. During this period, the quotation decreased by 0.87%.

This week, polyethylene prices have fluctuated, with LLDPE prices showing a slight upward trend, LDPE prices mostly remaining stable, and HDPE prices showing a slight downward trend. The rise in international crude oil prices has to some extent supported the polyethylene market on the cost side. There are not many maintenance devices in the enterprise, and short maintenance is the main focus, with sufficient supply of polyethylene. Recently, the operating rate of packaging film companies has improved, and the demand for orders has slightly improved, mainly driven by holiday demand. Agricultural film is in the off-season of demand, and downstream market demand is poor. Due to significant supply side pressure and weak demand, HDPE prices have been lowered.

On December 22nd, the opening price of the polyethylene l2405 contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 8220 yuan, and the closing price was 8240 yuan, up 30 yuan. The highest price was 8279 yuan, and the lowest was 8186 yuan, up 0.37%. This week, the trend of futures is relatively strong, driving up the polyethylene market.

The cost side and recent strong futures trend have boosted the LLDPE price trend. Overall, the demand side is mainly based on rigid demand, and low market transactions are still acceptable. The boost of other varieties is limited, and they are still mainly weak. It is expected that polyethylene may experience narrow range fluctuations.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the prices of industrial grade and battery grade lithium carbonate are still in a downward trend this week, but the price reduction has slightly slowed down. On December 21st, the average domestic mixed price of industrial grade lithium carbonate was 97400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.88% compared to the average price of 102400 yuan/ton on December 17th. On December 21st, the average domestic mixed price of battery grade lithium carbonate was 106600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.33% compared to the average price of 112600 yuan/ton on December 17th.

By observing market changes, it can be seen that the price of lithium carbonate has continued to decline this week, but the magnitude of the price decline has slightly eased. In terms of supply, the domestic lithium carbonate market is still dominated by long-term transactions, but towards the end of the year, some lithium salt enterprises still have the idea of shipping due to inventory pressure, and prices are still being lowered. Some lithium salt enterprises still have a strong attitude of price support. The supply of lithium carbonate in the market is still sufficient, and major lithium salt enterprises maintain stable production. Customs data shows that approximately 17000 tons of lithium carbonate were imported in November, and Chile still exported about 13600 tons of lithium carbonate in November. In the short term, the domestic supply of lithium carbonate is still high.

In terms of demand, there is currently no increase in orders from downstream positive electrode material enterprises, and the mentality of reducing raw material inventory before the year is still present. The general strategy of long-term procurement is maintained, and their target price for bulk procurement is relatively low. Under the current price situation, there is little willingness to purchase bulk orders. However, some trading companies continue to follow the strategy of selling electricity and carbon at a discount of around 1000 yuan/ton, but with few transactions, they are more inclined to engage in partial warehousing in the future.

The price of lithium hydroxide is showing a downward trend. Due to the downward trend in the upstream industrial grade lithium carbonate market, the price of upstream spodumene concentrate is weak, dragging down the market mentality. Downstream procurement is slow to follow up, with a cautious focus on demand and a strong wait-and-see attitude. Holders are stimulating orders with low prices, and the focus of negotiations in the lithium hydroxide market is weakening.

The downstream price of lithium iron phosphate has declined due to the downward trend in lithium salt prices, which has driven down the cost of iron lithium materials. Due to a decrease in order volume, some iron lithium enterprises have reduced production based on sales, resulting in high inventory and slow destocking. Power end and energy storage end battery cell companies maintain a rigid demand for pick-up, with a focus on clearing finished product inventory, and a decrease in the purchase volume of lithium iron phosphate materials.

In terms of futures, on December 21st, the opening price of the LC2407 main contract was 100000 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 101850 yuan/ton and a closing price of 97600 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 4.22%. The transaction volume was 322700 lots, and the position was 158076 lots.

According to analysts from Shengyishe Lithium Carbonate, the current spot market for lithium carbonate is still in a state of oversupply, and prices remain weak. However, some lithium salt enterprises engaged in external lithium mining are still in a loss making state, and some lithium salt enterprises have low finished product inventory. These lithium salt enterprises have recently shown a stronger attitude towards selling at high prices, and the decline in spot market transaction prices is gradually slowing down. It is expected that the spot price of lithium carbonate will remain weak in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from December 11th to 18th, the domestic ethanol price remained at 6800 yuan/ton, with a stable month on month and a year-on-year decrease of 1.98%. In some regions, freight rates have slightly increased, and factory shipments are relatively weak. Snowy weather in some areas affects delivery time, prices remain stable, orders are shipped, and transportation vehicles are difficult to find. The overall weakness of the domestic ethanol market is mainly due to consolidation.

On the cost side, as we enter mid December, the market volume of corn in the production areas continues to increase, and the weak corn prices have led to an increase in the intention of grain trading entities to liquidate their exports. In addition, the new season of corn production has once again increased, and the domestic corn market supply has become more relaxed. Ports and deep processing corn inventories are relatively sufficient. Downstream trading entities have a strong wait-and-see attitude, and feed demand continues to be weak. Under the pressure of strong market supply and weak demand, The domestic corn market prices continue to be weak. The cost side of ethanol is influenced by bearish factors.

On the supply side, there is a significant difference in the operating rates of production enterprises in different regions, with 38.54% operating in East China and 91.04% operating in Northeast China; The operating rate in South China and Southwest China is 19.65%; Short term domestic ethanol production and stable food supply in Northeast China. The ethanol supply in East China has increased due to an increase in port cargo arrivals. Coal based ethanol supply is stable. Or new production capacity may be put into operation, and by-products will soon be produced. The supply side of ethanol is affected by bearish factors.

On the demand side, most ethyl acetate factories maintain normal production status. There is a possibility of recovery for the ethyl acetate factory, and the ethyl acetate project in Anhui is awaiting production. Baijiu just needs to be purchased. The short-term demand for ethanol is mixed.

In the future market forecast, the cost is bearish, and the supply and demand in different regions are greatly affected by weather factors. Ethanol analysts from Business Society predict that the short-term domestic ethanol market situation may be dominated by weak consolidation.