According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic market price of ortho phthalic anhydride continued to decline this week. As of the weekend, the quotation for ortho phthalic anhydride was 7712.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.74% from the beginning of the week price of 8012.5 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year decrease of 18.28%.

Supply side: Stable operation of the device and sufficient supply of goods

The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plants is stable. Currently, the operating rate of phthalic anhydride in China remains at over 60%, and the supply of phthalic anhydride goods is relatively sufficient. In addition, the production of naphthalene phthalic anhydride goods is normal, and the price of naphthalene phthalic anhydride has dropped, which has correspondingly impacted the neighboring phthalic anhydride market. Recently, downstream procurement has been inactive, and some phthalic anhydride factories have continuously lowered their factory prices, resulting in a continuous decline in the phthalic anhydride market.

Cost side: The trend of neighboring benzene is declining, and cost support is insufficient

This week, the domestic price trend of ortho benzene has been continuously declining. As of the end of the month, the price of ortho benzene was 8000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.44% compared to the beginning of the week’s price of 8200 yuan/ton. The ortho benzene supply is normal, and the operation of on-site devices is stable. This week, the crude oil price trend has declined, and the mixed xylene price has correspondingly decreased, leading to a decrease in raw material prices. As a result, the domestic price trend of ortho benzene has fallen, and the decline in ortho benzene market has brought a negative impact on the phthalic anhydride market, The market price trend of phthalic anhydride has declined.

Demand side: DOP market mainly focuses on on-demand procurement

The downstream DOP market prices have continued to decline, with prices as of the weekend at 11191.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.25% compared to the beginning of the week at 11333.33 yuan/ton. Domestic DOP enterprises have maintained their operations, and domestic DOP supply is normal. However, plasticizer enterprises have lost profits, plasticizer manufacturers have started with low loads, and plasticizer supply is still tight. Downstream demand is weak, and the mainstream price of DOP has dropped to 11100-11200 yuan/ton. The plasticizer market is not good, which is unfavorable for the phthalic anhydride market, The market price of phthalic anhydride continues to decline.

Looking at the future market, it is expected that the crude oil price range has fluctuated recently, and the price trend of ortho xylene has declined. In addition, the downstream plasticizer market is not good, and the purchasing enthusiasm of the plasticizer industry is not high. As a result, it is expected that the market price of ortho phthalic anhydride will decrease slightly.

In October, domestic polycrystalline silicon experienced a significant decline due to fluctuations. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the monthly decline of single crystal dense materials is 1.93%. The main reason is that the downstream market generally resists high prices, leading to an increase in supply and a buildup of inventory in enterprises, weakening bargaining power, and reducing prices to clear inventory. According to data from Business Society. As of the end of the month, the mainstream range of single crystal dense materials with a model of primary solar energy level has been maintained at 70-75000 yuan/ton.

On the supply side, silicon material manufacturers have maintained a reasonable level of operation, and devices that were previously shut down due to power constraints have been operating one after another. The superposition of new production units continuously releases production, bringing about an increase in supply, completely reversing the supply and demand pattern, and gradually revealing oversupply. In addition, there is a heavy wait-and-see sentiment at the downstream Lajing end, and actual transactions were less than expected. This month, large silicon material factories have all experienced a backlog phenomenon.

On the demand side, the market demand in October was relatively weak, and the overall inventory of silicon wafers continued to rise. The market entered a stage of accumulation, and some second tier silicon wafer manufacturers showed a clear willingness to reduce production. The profits of silicon wafer factories were compressed to a low level, and most of the crystal drawing factories have reduced their procurement frequency to force silicon material manufacturers to lower prices. The overall transaction within the month was average, and the competition between upstream and downstream silicon material and silicon wafer manufacturers intensified. The quotation of silicon wafers began to accelerate in the middle of the month, and as of the end of the month, the decline in model M10 single crystal silicon wafers was significant, with a monthly drop of 0.95 yuan, a decrease of nearly 30%. The mainstream transaction price fell to 2.40 yuan per wafer; The price of G12 single crystal silicon chip has dropped by 0.8 yuan, and the current mainstream transaction price is 3.40 yuan per chip.

From the demand for downstream battery cells, it can be seen that the production of downstream battery cells has remained stable, but there are signs of a slowdown in downstream component procurement. It is not ruled out that prices will continue to decline in the future. The overall price decline in October was not significant. From the perspective of terminal components, the demand for overseas projects is mainly reduced, which will become a demand constraint. However, the demand for centralized installation in China is still on the rise, which ensures that there will not be too much fluctuation in demand. Overall, it is mainly balanced.

Future Market Forecast: The supply pressure in the silicon material market has increased in the near future, and the accumulated inventory in the later stage has not ended. There is still a possibility for enterprises to continue to lower prices. Moreover, there has not been much improvement in demand, so the contradiction of silicon material oversupply is difficult to alleviate in the short term, and it is expected that silicon material will continue to operate in a weak manner.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic 1 # tin ingot market experienced a wide range of fluctuations in October 2023. The average price in the domestic market was 218310 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 213760 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly decrease of 2.08%.

On October 30th, the base metal index was 1192 points, an increase of 12 points compared to yesterday, a decrease of 26.24% from the cycle’s highest point of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 85.67% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

On October 30th, the tin commodity index was 109.49, an increase of 1.52 points from yesterday, a decrease of 41.67% from the cycle’s highest point of 187.70 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 155.46% from the lowest point of 42.86 points on December 9th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present).

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the monthly K-bar chart, it can be seen that the recent fluctuations in tin prices have been relatively small. From the K-bar chart of the week, it can be seen that the tin market has been declining for five consecutive weeks, with a positive trend and a negative trend in recent times.

In October 2023, the tin ingot market experienced a wide range of fluctuations, ranging from 21200 to 21850 yuan/ton. During the month, the market mainly followed macroeconomic factors and was less affected by the supply and demand side. During the month, the spot market showed slightly light trading, and the market replenished inventory as needed. The main reason is that in the early stage, most downstream enterprises actively replenished their inventory when the tin price was low. Currently, the main focus is on consuming inventory in the factory, and the willingness to replenish inventory is still low. In terms of import data, the import of tin ore in September plummeted sharply, with a year-on-year decrease of 54.79% and a month on month decrease of 73.18%. However, in the early stage, the import volume in the domestic market was relatively large, so the short-term impact on the domestic market was limited. With the weakening of foreign markets and the opening of import markets, domestic import sources have increased, and the market is expected to have a decent supply. In terms of domestic supply, the operation of smelters has been relatively stable recently, and the operating rate has not changed much. However, the import market has performed well. With the weakening of the overseas market and the continuous high level of overseas inventory, the market is expected to have more imported tin ingots entering the domestic market, and the market is expected to have sufficient supply in the future. In terms of demand, there is currently no substantial improvement in the downstream market, and future expectations are still weak. Overall, under high inventory pressure, the tin ingot market is under pressure and downward trend.

Related data:

According to data from the General Administration of Customs, the import volume of tin ore sand and its concentrate in September 2023 was 7263 tons (equivalent to 3276 metal tons), a year-on-year decrease of 54.79% and a month on month decrease of 73.18%.

According to data from the World Bureau of Metals Statistics (WBMS), the global refined tin production in August 2023 was 26200 tons, with a consumption of 27500 tons and a supply shortage of 13000 tons; From January to August 2023, the global refined tin production was 226000 tons, with a consumption of 218400 tons and an oversupply of 7600 tons. In August 2023, the global tin ore production was 21400 tons; The global tin ore production from January to August 2023 was 195300 tons.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic ethanol market was weak in October. From October 7th to 30th, the average price of domestic ethanol producers dropped from 7000 yuan/ton to 6895 yuan/ton, with a 1.50% drop in price during the cycle and a 2.15% year-on-year increase in price.

At the beginning of the month, production enterprises mainly completed preliminary orders, with relatively stable inventory and stable prices. In mid month, the production enterprise shipped orders with stable prices, and some factory prices were not high. In the case of poor demand, the overall delivery situation is average. In the latter half of the month, the supply of production enterprises remained stable, market inventory accumulated, and new orders did not improve. The downstream of the main production areas just needed replenishment, and the ethanol market was mainly weak and organized.

In terms of cost, as we enter mid October, the market volume of corn in Northeast China continues to increase, and the high yield of new season corn has become a foregone conclusion. Downstream enterprises have a strong wait-and-see attitude, continuously lowering the purchase price of corn. Grain trading entities are cautious in purchasing and selling, and corn prices continue to be weak. Grassroots farmers have a strong willingness to sell grain, and the domestic corn market supply continues to increase. Under the pressure of strong market supply and weak demand, the domestic corn market prices continue to be weak and downward. There are temporary bearish factors on the cost side of ethanol.

On the supply side, the majority of production enterprises in various regions park their facilities, and the operating rate of normally operating enterprises remains at 30-40%. A small number of enterprises have low inventory, while most enterprises have relatively high inventory. Shuntong Short Stop is about to resume. Hongzhan Huanan is recovering, and there is a possibility of Liaoyuan Jufeng starting up. The supply side of ethanol is influenced by bearish factors.

On the demand side, most ethyl acetate factories maintained normal production status in October. Other chemical products require procurement. The short-term demand for ethanol is mixed.

In the future market forecast, costs are weak and supply and demand are short. Ethanol analysts from Business Society predict that the short-term domestic ethanol will continue to decline.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of October 27th, the average price quoted by formic acid companies was 3375.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.17% compared to October 1st.

In October, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market remained stable, with some companies experiencing price fluctuations. During the month, the price of raw material sulfuric acid steadily decreased, while the price of raw material methanol fluctuated slightly, and cost support weakened. After the Double Festival, downstream inquiries and procurement followed up on demand, with the majority of shippers actively shipping and some companies lowering prices. As inventory pressure gradually eased, the market trading atmosphere was still good. Shippers shipped according to the market, and the market remained stable and stable. On the 27th, the quotation range for industrial grade 85% formic acid enterprises was between 3300-3500 yuan/ton.

Import and export: According to customs statistics, the import volume of formic acid in China was 1208 kilograms in September 2023, and the export volume of formic acid in China was 22641859 kilograms in September 2023.

Business Society formic acid analysts believe that recent cost support is limited, with downstream flexible purchases being the main focus. The overall market transaction remains in demand, and it is expected that in the short term, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market may remain stable and operate on a wait-and-see basis. More attention needs to be paid to market news guidance.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic aggregated MDI market has rebounded in a narrow range. From October 19th to 26th, the domestic aggregated MDI market price increased from 15450 yuan/ton to 15683 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.51% during the cycle, a month on month decrease of 5.14%, and a year-on-year decrease of 2.36%. The main production enterprises have completed the execution of the MDI plan for the month’s distribution channel aggregation, resulting in low inventory and tight supply, resulting in delayed shipments. Next month, the supplier maintenance will be more concentrated, and the supply inventory is expected to shrink, leading to a slight rebound in market prices.

On the supply side, maintenance of the 600000 ton/year unit at Shanghai MDI factory began on November 16th, with distillation shutdown for about two weeks and synthesis maintenance until mid December. The 400000 ton/year device at Chongqing MDI factory is scheduled for maintenance in early December. In addition, there are rumors in the market that the Ningbo factory has maintenance plans. The supply side is shrinking, but there is still room for improvement. The supply side is influenced by favorable factors.

On the cost side, the raw material pure benzene has experienced narrow fluctuations in the domestic pure benzene market. Port inventory has been slightly depleted, and with the support of a significant increase in crude oil futures, the negotiated price of pure benzene has rapidly increased to above 7900 yuan/ton. However, due to the rapid price increase and a slight decline in crude oil, the market procurement pace has slightly slowed down. Raw material aniline: The domestic aniline market has undergone horizontal consolidation, and downstream stocking enthusiasm has weakened. Currently, factories are shipping normally. The cost of aggregating MDI is mixed.

On the demand side, the demand side has started relatively slowly. With the arrival of winter in the north, the demand in the pipeline, spraying, and sheet metal industries has decreased compared to the previous period. The boosting power of the cold industry has not yet affected spot trading, and there has been an increase in attention within the market, but there is still a willingness to ship. The short-term aggregate MDI demand side is influenced by bearish factors.

In the future market forecast, after the price increase, traders’ willingness to ship will increase, and the market atmosphere will be good. Business Society MDI analysts predict that the domestic aggregated MDI market is mainly slow to follow up.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic market for imported potassium chloride fell first and then rose this week. The price of potassium chloride increased from 2887.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2900.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 0.43%. On October 22nd, the potassium chloride (imported) commodity index was 92.06, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 47.27% from the cycle’s highest point of 174.60 points (2022-06-21), and an increase of 58.04% from the lowest point of 58.25 points on August 6, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from March 1st, 2012 to present)

2、 Market analysis

This week, the prices of mainstream domestic potassium chloride distributors have fluctuated. The arrival price of 60% white potassium in Qinghai is around 2700 yuan/ton, and the self raised price of 62% white potassium in ports is around 2800-2900 yuan/ton. The self raised price of 60% Dahong granules at the port is around 2900 yuan/ton. Border trade accounts for 62% of Russian white potassium at around 2750-2800 yuan/ton.

From the downstream market situation of potassium chloride, the price of potassium carbonate in the market decreased slightly this week, from 7530.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7490.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.53%. The weekend price fell by 19.25% year-on-year. The market price of potassium nitrate slightly decreased this week, dropping from 5450.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 5425.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 0.46%. The weekend price decreased by 14.23% year-on-year. Overall, the downstream market for potassium chloride has slightly declined, and downstream customers’ demand for potassium chloride has weakened.

3、 Future Market Forecast

In late October, the overall trend of potassium chloride market may fluctuate and rise in a narrow range, with consolidation being the main trend. The prices of potassium chloride in salt lakes and Zangge are temporarily stable. The downstream market of potassium chloride has slightly declined, and downstream demand has weakened, with primary demand for procurement. The circulation of potassium chloride is tight, and the supply of goods at the port has slightly increased. Analysts from the Business Society believe that domestic potassium chloride import prices may slightly increase in the short term.

Recently (10.11-10.20), the spot market for butadiene rubber has been weak and declining. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of October 20th, the market price of butadiene rubber in East China was 12740 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.86% from 12850 yuan/ton on the 11th. During the cycle, the factory price of butadiene rubber will be reduced by 200 yuan/ton.

The price of raw material butadiene has risen, and the cost of butadiene rubber continues to support. The pressure on the supply side of butadiene rubber has increased, coupled with the lack of downstream inquiries after the holiday, causing a downward pressure on the butadiene rubber market. As of October 20th, the mainstream domestic butadiene rubber market reported a price of 12000~12800 yuan/ton.

Industry construction has slightly increased, and pressure on the supply side of butadiene rubber has increased.

Recently (10.11-10.20), the butadiene market has risen, and there is still some support for the cost of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of October 20th, the price of butadiene was 9137 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.91% from 8710 yuan/ton on the 11th.

Demand side: Tire production fluctuates slightly, while rubber inquiries are relatively light. It is understood that as of mid October, the operating load of semi steel tires in China was 7.3%; The operating load of all steel tires for tire enterprises in Shandong region is 6.4%, which only maintains rigid support for rubber.

Future Market Forecast: Business Society analysts believe that the rising prices of butadiene rubber raw materials and increasing supply pressure on butadiene rubber will result in fewer downstream inquiries after the holiday. It is expected that the spot market of butadiene rubber will show a weak and volatile trend in the short term.

According to data monitored by Business Society, as of October 19th, the price of high-quality power type lithium iron phosphate was 68400 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.29% compared to the same period last week. Currently, the mainstream price is around 68000 yuan/ton, mainly for contract customers, and new orders are not accepted.

This week, the stable operation of lithium iron phosphate is the main focus, with a price of 68000 yuan/ton for the same period last week. Currently, the mainstream price is around 68000 yuan/ton, and the overall market is mainly stable. Downstream restocking is needed, while upstream lithium carbonate is stable and strong. There is some support for the cost side of lithium iron phosphate. In the short term, lithium carbonate will maintain its previous trend, and manufacturers will only supply old customers with goods, while new customers will not take orders.

Chemical Commodity Index: On October 18th, the chemical index stood at 919 points, a decrease of 2 points from yesterday, a decrease of 34.36% from the highest point in the cycle of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and an increase of 53.68% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

Analysts from Business Society believe that in the short term, the lithium iron phosphate market is operating steadily with a stronger trend.

Recent trends in sulfuric acid prices

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic sulfuric acid market price has temporarily stabilized this week, with a price of 306.00 yuan/ton. Over the weekend, the price fell by 24.63% year-on-year.

Upstream market slightly declined, while downstream procurement enthusiasm is good

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream domestic sulfuric acid manufacturers have temporarily stabilized this week, with average inventory levels among manufacturers.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industry chains, the upstream sulfur market has slightly declined, with sulfur prices dropping from 956.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 933.33 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 2.44%, and a year-on-year decrease of 40.17% at the weekend. The upstream market has slightly declined, with insufficient cost support. The downstream hydrofluoric acid market slightly increased, with the market price rising from 11450.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 11500.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 0.44%. The weekend price increased by 11.65% year-on-year. The downstream titanium dioxide market has stabilized at a high level, with a market price of 17300.00 yuan/ton. Over the weekend, the price increased by 8.01% year-on-year. The downstream market has slightly increased, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is good.

Small fluctuation and decline in the future market

In late October, the domestic sulfuric acid market may experience a slight fluctuation and decline. Although the downstream titanium dioxide and hydrofluoric acid markets have slightly increased, downstream customers have a good enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid. However, the upstream sulfur market has slightly declined, and cost support is insufficient. Under the contradiction between supply and demand, the product trend is declining. Business Society sulfuric acid analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic sulfuric acid market is mainly affected by various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials, and the sulfuric acid market price may fluctuate and decline slightly.