The price of plasticizer DOP rose first and then fell this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of January 12th, the price of DOP was 12120 yuan/ton, which increased and then decreased from the price of 12058.33 yuan/ton on January 5th, with an increase of 0.51%. The cost support for plasticizer DOP has weakened, with DOP prices rising first and then falling this week.

The price of isooctanol rose first and then fell this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 12th, the quotation for isooctanol was 13000 yuan/ton, which increased and then decreased compared to the quotation of 12962.50 yuan/ton on January 5th, with an increase of 0.29%; Compared to the price of 13050 yuan/ton on January 10th, the price of isooctanol has decreased by 0.38%. This week, the production of downstream plasticizers has stabilized, and large plasticizer manufacturers are in urgent need of procurement. The transaction volume of isooctanol has weakened, and the high price support of isooctanol is insufficient. The price of isooctanol has stopped rising and fallen, and the support for the rise of raw materials has weakened. The downward pressure on DOP has increased.

The price of phthalic anhydride fluctuates and falls

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of January 12th, the quotation for phthalic anhydride was 7575 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.46% from the price of 7687.50 yuan/ton on January 5th. After the holiday, downstream demand for phthalic anhydride procurement has been hindered by high-end phthalic anhydride, resulting in a decrease in phthalic anhydride prices, a decline in phthalic anhydride market, and a decrease in DOP costs.

Future expectations

Business Society plasticizer product data analysts believe that this week, the raw material isooctanol rose first and then fell, the phthalic anhydride market fell, and the cost support for plasticizer DOP weakened. In addition, the operating load of plasticizer factories stabilized this week, and the support for plasticizer price increases weakened. In the future, the cost support for stable supply is weakened, and the support for rising DOP is weakened. It is expected that the price of DOP will be mainly weak and consolidating in the future.

After the decline of the domestic bisphenol A market after New Year’s Day, it stabilized and operated. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic bisphenol A market was quoted at 9465 yuan/ton on January 8th.

The demand for the two downstream products is weak, with insufficient transactions and weak market volatility. The downstream epoxy resin market is weak, and the overall operating rate is less than 50%. Enterprises are mainly bearish about the future market. The East China liquid epoxy resin market offers 13000-13400 yuan/ton of purified water for delivery, and the Mount Huangshan solid epoxy resin market negotiation price is 13000-13400 yuan/ton for cash delivery. The downstream PC market is weak and volatile, with mainstream negotiations for injection grade high-end materials in East China ranging from 16000-17000 yuan/ton.

The cost support weakened, with the overall high level of dual raw materials in the early stage. However, on the 8th, the two major raw material products fell. As of now, the phenol market in East China is quoted at 7150 yuan/ton, and the acetone market in East China is quoted at 7150 yuan/ton.

At the beginning of the week, bidding saw little fluctuation in the upstream and downstream markets, with factories intending to maintain stability. Overnight oil prices plummeted, and the atmosphere in the chemical market was affected. It is expected that bisphenol A will fluctuate narrowly.

Recently (1.1-1.8), the market for trichloromethane has slightly declined. According to data from Business Society, as of January 8th, the price of trichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2016 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.58% from 2070 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The price of raw material methanol has weakened and decreased, while the price of liquid chlorine has slightly rebounded. The cost center of trichloromethane is operating at a low level; After the phased replenishment of downstream warehouses, market transactions have weakened, and the bearish atmosphere in the market has diverged. The trichloromethane market is relatively weak and consolidating. As of January 8th, the mainstream factory price of trichloromethane in Shandong region is around 2000-20060 yuan/ton.

Recently (1.1-1.8), domestic methane chloride production has fluctuated narrowly.

Recently (1.1-1.8), the price of raw material methanol has weakened and decreased, while the price of liquid chlorine has rebounded but remains at a low level. The cost support for trichloromethane is weak. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of January 8th, the spot price of methanol was 2404 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.87% from 2450 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. As of January 8th, the acceptance price of liquid chlorine tank trucks in Shandong region is around 200 yuan/ton, which is generally at a low level.

In the off-season, there is only a small amount of demand for refrigerants at the terminal, and the operating level of refrigerant enterprises is stable, while the demand for trichloromethane is relatively weak. However, in the medium to long term, the overall support for the demand for trichloromethane will weaken.

The methane chloride data analyst from Business Society believes that the demand for trichloromethane is weak in terms of just in demand support, and the cost side remains at a low level. However, there is not much inventory pressure on enterprises, and it is expected that the trichloromethane market will fluctuate narrowly in the later stage.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the propane market in 2023 experienced a roller coaster trend, with a brief rise in the first half of the year before entering a downward channel. After rebounding at the bottom of the second half of the year, it began to fluctuate within the range until the end of the year. On January 1st, the average price of propane in Shandong was 5082 yuan/ton, and the year-end average price was 5618 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year increase of 10.54%. The lowest point of prices for the whole year occurred in early July, a decrease of 25.61% compared to January 1st

In January, the domestic propane market had a good start, with an overall improvement compared to the end of 2022. At the beginning of the month, due to the low prices in the early stage, enterprises effectively destocked, and after the holiday, downstream began to replenish goods in stages, resulting in a significant increase in demand. At the same time, the recent low volume of ships arriving at ports has led to a decrease in market supply, and propane prices have begun to rise strongly. The market started to sharply decline in February, as propane prices rose to a high level and downstream follow-up was slow, leading to resistance. Coupled with the continuous decline in CP prices, it suppressed the mentality of business owners. The peak season for downstream chemical and combustion demand has passed, and some chemical products have been affected by high cost, resulting in reduced profits and a decrease in demand. The continuous decline in propane prices continued until the end of June. In the second half of the year, as prices fell to a low level, downstream buyers entered the market on dips, and the propane market entered a price increase trend earlier than in previous years. Market purchases and sales improved, while import prices stopped falling and rose, jointly helping to increase propane prices. Starting from September, the traditional peak season began. Due to the early depletion of favorable conditions in the early stage, downstream PDH units had a longer loss cycle, with low operating levels. Propane stabilized from rising, and then prices fluctuated within the 5200-5600 range due to supply and demand contradictions, continuing until the end of the year.

According to the monthly K-bar chart of Shandong propane in 2023, the increase in January was as high as 26.71%, followed by a gradual increase in decline. In the second half of the year, there was a significant rebound, and after the rebound, the increase gradually decreased. In the peak demand season in October, it even fell, and then began to stabilize.

From the trend of propane prices in the past three years, it can be seen that propane prices reached their lowest point in nearly three years in July 2023, and then began to rebound strongly. The upward trend appeared relatively early. It is reported that there was a significant increase in October 2012, with an increase of over 20% compared to September. Saudi Aramco’s CP in October announced that propane was $800/ton, an increase of $135/ton from the previous month; The onshore cost of propane is equivalent to 6175 yuan/ton, and the significant increase in CP directly drives the rise in domestic propane prices.

In 2023, CP prices showed a V-shaped trend, with the highest point appearing at 790 yuan/ton in February and the lowest point appearing at 400 yuan/ton in July. Prices stabilized from October onwards. From the trend of domestic propane, the price gradually fell in the first half of the year, increased first and then stabilized in the second half of the year. The lowest point of the price also appeared in July, indicating that the price of international imported propane has a direct impact on the domestic market price.

Market forecast: From a cost perspective, crude oil, as an indirect upstream of propane, showed a divergence in its trend in October 2023. Oil prices began to fluctuate and fall in late October, while propane fluctuated at a high level until the end of the year under the support of the peak combustion demand season. The price of crude oil still largely affects the trend of propane, and we closely monitor the international oil price trend in 2024. From the perspective of demand, as the main downstream PDH device, the industry has been operating at a loss since August 2023, with less than 70% of the industry’s overall production capacity. It is expected to add about 10 million tons of new production capacity in 2024. In the current competitive landscape of the industry, it is difficult for all PDH devices to be put into operation as scheduled next year. Moreover, it is not difficult to see from the propane demand market in 2023 that high prices suppress demand, and there is significant resistance to price increases, making high prices short-lived. Therefore, opportunities and challenges coexist in the propane market in 2024. Under the multiple influences of internal and external factors, it is expected that the center of gravity of propane prices may continue to decline compared to 2023. Taking the Shandong market as an example, it may fluctuate within the range of 6000-8000 yuan/ton in 2024, with a high-frequency fluctuation range of 6800-7300 yuan/ton and an annual average price around 7200 yuan/ton. It is expected that the market price will have a low point in the first quarter and a high point in the third quarter.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the mainstream market price of urea in Shandong Province fluctuated and fell in December. Urea prices dropped from 2601.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 2485 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 4.48%, and a year-on-year decrease of 8.87% at the end of the month.

On December 28th, the urea commodity index was 115.50, a decrease of 1.32 points from yesterday, a decrease of 24.18% from the highest point in the cycle of 152.33 points (2022-05-15), and an increase of 107.73% from the lowest point of 55.60 points on August 17th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to present)

From the supply side perspective, the mainstream market price of urea in Shandong dropped significantly in December.

Cost side: Upstream market drops significantly

The price of liquefied natural gas dropped significantly in December, from 6556 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 5510 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 15.95%, and a year-on-year decrease of 9.08% at the end of the month. The price of Yangquan anthracite (washed fast) rose first and then fell, dropping from 1110 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 960 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton. The price of liquid ammonia first rose and then fell, dropping from 3863.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 3623.33 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 6.21%. The highest point was 4056.67 yuan/ton on December 9th, with a maximum decrease of 10.68% within the month. At the end of the month, prices decreased by 21.63% year-on-year. Overall, the upstream market for urea has experienced a significant decline, with insufficient cost support.

On the demand side: The price of melamine fluctuates and rises

From the demand side, agricultural demand has weakened, industrial demand is average, and urea exports are currently not favorable. Agricultural sporadic fertilization. The operating rate of compound fertilizer plants is average, and their enthusiasm for purchasing urea is normal. Board and melamine enterprises generally start construction, with a focus on procurement for immediate needs. The price of melamine fluctuated and increased in December, rising from 7325 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 7475 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 2.05%. From a supply perspective, maintenance companies have resumed production, with a daily urea production of around 180000 tons, indicating sufficient supply.

In the future, the urea market may experience a slight fluctuation and decline in the first half of January. The prices of smokeless coal and liquefied natural gas have dropped significantly, with insufficient cost support. The daily production of urea is about 180000 tons, with sufficient supply. Agricultural demand is average, while industrial demand is predominant. In the future, urea may experience a slight fluctuation and decline.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the price of acetic acid in December first rose and then fell. As of December 29th, the price was 3200 yuan/ton, which was 125 yuan/ton lower than the beginning of the month’s acetic acid price of 3325 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.75%.

As of the end of the month, the price details of acetic acid market in various regions of China in December are as follows:

Region/ December 1st/ December 15th/ December 29th

South China region/ 3175 yuan/ton/. 3100 yuan/ton/. 3050 yuan/ton

North China region/ 3275 yuan/ton/ 3175 yuan/ton/ 3000 yuan/ton

Shandong region/ 3275 yuan/ton/ 3300 yuan/ton/ 3100 yuan/ton

Jiangsu region/ 3325 yuan/ton/ 3175 yuan/ton/ 3025 yuan/ton

Zhejiang region/ 3425 yuan/ton/ 3275 yuan/ton/ 3125 yuan/ton

In December, the acetic acid market showed a weak trend and prices fluctuated. At the beginning of the month, frequent malfunctions occurred in the acetic acid plant, causing acetic acid enterprises to operate at reduced loads, resulting in low inventory levels among manufacturers and a significant increase in acetic acid prices; Subsequently, the faulty equipment of the main factories in East China gradually recovered, and the market supply increased. At the same time, the northern region was affected by rainy and snowy weather, with limited transportation and accumulated inventory from manufacturers. There was a strong intention to discharge inventory, but downstream demand was weak. Coupled with the influence of buying up and not buying down sentiment, the market was clearly bearish, and the price of acetic acid was significantly reduced; In the latter half of the year, the failure of the acetic acid plant occurred again, and the operating rate of enterprises decreased. The price of acetic acid rebounded and increased, but due to limited demand, the price was lowered again at the end of the month.

The methanol market for raw materials fluctuates widely, and the price trend shows an “N” shape. As of December 29th, the average price in the domestic market was 2450 yuan/ton, which is a 2.20% decrease compared to the price of 2505 yuan/ton on December 1st. In the first half of the month, the expectation of methanol imports remained high, which suppressed market prices to a certain extent. Downstream purchases were mainly based on demand, and overall market price changes were limited. After the reduction of methanol prices, there was weak volatility; In the middle of the month, some regions were affected by heavy snowfall, resulting in limited transportation and slower delivery speeds. As a result, social inventory in consumer areas was low, leading to an increase in downstream delivery prices; In the latter half of the year, due to weak demand, methanol shipments were not smooth, and the market situation was weak and downward.

The downstream acetic anhydride market fluctuated and stabilized in December, with a price of 5912.50 yuan/ton on December 29th, an increase of 1.28% from the beginning of the month’s price of 5837.50 yuan/ton. During the month, acetic acid enterprises experienced frequent malfunctions, limited supply of acetic acid, and prices fluctuated. Due to cost constraints, acetic anhydride prices followed a broad consolidation trend. At the end of the month, acetic anhydride enterprises experienced equipment shutdowns, resulting in an increase in acetic anhydride prices. In December, acetic anhydride prices fluctuated and increased.

Analysts from Business Society believe that the operating rate of acetic acid enterprises is relatively high, manufacturers maintain active shipments, downstream purchasing sentiment is weak, demand for acetic acid is limited, sales pressure from acetic acid manufacturers is high, market transactions are insufficient, and the mentality of operators is weak. Under the supply-demand game, it is expected that the acetic acid market will be weak and consolidate in the future, and specific attention will be paid to downstream replenishment in the future.

In some areas of the northwest, the power supply of calcium carbide enterprises is unstable, and the production volume of calcium carbide enterprises has decreased. In addition, some areas are affected by rainy and snowy weather, resulting in poor circulation of calcium carbide and a tight supply of calcium carbide. In December, the factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region slightly increased. The price of calcium carbide increased from 2916.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 2983.33 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 2.29%, and the price at the end of the month decreased by 19.37% year-on-year.

From the supply side perspective, the factory prices of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in the northwest region slightly increased in December.

Cost side: Low price consolidation of blue charcoal

In December, the upstream price of calcium carbide blue charcoal stabilized at a low level, with blue charcoal prices around 1160 yuan/ton. In the short term, the price of blue charcoal remains stable with a weak trend, and the cost support for calcium carbide is average.

On the demand side: Downstream market fluctuations and declines

In December, the downstream PVC market price of calcium carbide fluctuated and fell. The market price of PVC dropped from 5698 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 5688 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 0.18%, and the price at the end of the month decreased by 6.88% year-on-year. The downstream market price of 1,4-butanediol has slightly decreased. The market price of 1,4-butanediol decreased from 9628.57 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 9535.71 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 0.96%, and the price at the end of the month decreased by 2.10% year-on-year. The downstream market of calcium carbide is fluctuating and falling, and downstream demand is weakening.

Looking at the future: In mid to early November, the calcium carbide market may experience a slight decline, with consolidation being the main trend. The upstream raw material blue charcoal prices have stabilized at a low level, and the cost support for calcium carbide is insufficient. The downstream PVC and 1,4-butanediol markets have fluctuated and fallen, and downstream demand has weakened. In the future, the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region may experience a slight fluctuation and decline in mid to early January, with consolidation being the main trend.

As of December 27, 2023, the average price of rubber grade white carbon black in the domestic market was 5933.33 yuan/ton. In 2023, the price of white carbon black increased by 3.19% throughout the year, with a small increase of about 200 yuan/ton. The overall market fluctuation of white carbon black in 2023 was not significant, and the price remained around 6000 yuan/ton. In January 2023, the price was 5750 yuan/ton, and as of December 27, the price was 5933.33 yuan/ton, with a limited range of price fluctuations, In March 2023, prices showed a narrow upward trend and remained stable for a long time thereafter. In the second half of the year, prices began to fluctuate and slightly declined, with a fluctuation range of less than 200 yuan/ton. Currently, the demand for white carbon black in the market has not met expectations, and enterprises are mainly operating under pressure. Will there be a turning point in 2024?

The overall market price fluctuation range of white carbon black in 2023 is limited, always maintained at around 6000 yuan/ton, with a high point in September and an upward trend at the end of August. Entering September, the price showed a fluctuating downward trend from September to November, with a low point at the beginning of the year and a price of 5750 yuan/ton.

In 2023, the overall market for white carbon black will operate steadily with little price fluctuation. The mainstream price has been maintained at around 6000 yuan/ton. Will there be a new turning point for white carbon black in 2024? Due to a series of advantages of white carbon black products, it can be widely used in many fields. White carbon black is used in colored rubber products to replace carbon black for reinforcement to meet the needs of white or translucent products. White carbon black also has super adhesion, tear resistance, heat resistance and aging resistance, so it can also replace part of carbon black in black rubber products to obtain high-quality rubber products, such as off-road tires, engineering tires It has a wide range of uses. Currently, the demand in the automotive industry has not met expectations, and enterprises are operating under pressure. In the past year, prices have not significantly broken through, and costs have fluctuated. The automotive industry may still maintain the current situation in 2024, and the possibility of a significant increase in demand is unlikely. The price of white carbon black needs to be patiently waiting for a turning point.

On December 26th, the white carbon black commodity index was 133.63, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 13.70% from the highest point in the cycle of 154.84 points (2021-12-06), and an increase of 49.46% from the lowest point of 89.41 points on October 7th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-09-01 present).

In 2023, upstream hydrochloric acid prices will continue to operate at a low level, lacking support for the positive effects on white carbon black. The price of hydrochloric acid itself has little impact on white carbon black, and coupled with its continued weakness, there is insufficient downstream demand for white carbon black, which is the main reason affecting the price of white carbon black. Therefore, there is insufficient upstream support and no downstream demand. It is difficult for white carbon black to have any upward momentum

Business Society’s white carbon black analyst believes that white carbon black plays a significant role in the rubber industry. Precipitation based white carbon black is widely used in snow tires, anti slip tires, and green tires. In recent years, the market share of new energy vehicles has increased. However, from the current development perspective, the demand for white carbon black has not met expectations, and it will continue to operate under pressure in 2024.

1、 Price trend

Taking sulfuric acid based rutile type titanium dioxide, which has a large volume of sales in the domestic market, as an example, according to data monitoring from Business Society, the domestic titanium dioxide market declined in December. On December 1st, the average price of titanium dioxide was 16650 yuan/ton/ton, and on December 26th, the average price of titanium dioxide was 16483.33 yuan/ton, with a 1% decrease in price.

2、 Market analysis

The titanium dioxide market in December was average. Overall, the international foreign trade order situation is still good, and the export market remains good. Longqi sent a letter stating that the foreign trade price of titanium dioxide has increased by $100 per ton since January 1, 2024. The domestic terminal market is relatively quiet, with strong downstream wait-and-see sentiment and cautious order acceptance. Manufacturers often deliver early orders, and new orders have limited transactions. The upstream raw material market is at a high level, and titanium dioxide manufacturers are under great pressure. As of now, most domestic quotations for rutile type titanium dioxide are between 16000-17600 yuan/ton; The quotation for rutile titanium dioxide is around 14500-15000 yuan/ton.

According to customs data, the import volume of titanium dioxide in China in November 2023 was 9262.96 tons, a month on month increase of 18.72% and a year-on-year increase of 63.18%; From January to November 2023, the cumulative import of titanium dioxide from China was about 73300 tons, a decrease of 36.90% compared to the same period last year, and the import volume decreased by about 42900 tons.

In November 2023, China’s titanium dioxide exports reached 124900 tons, a month on month increase of 5.10% and a year-on-year increase of 16.54%; From January to November 2023, the cumulative export of titanium dioxide was about 1.4983 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 17.14%, and the export volume increased by about 219200 tons.

In terms of titanium concentrate, the market price of titanium concentrate in the Panxi region fluctuated slightly in December. With the decrease in raw ore supply and the shutdown of large factories. Titanium ore spot prices are slightly tight, and there is no pressure on enterprise inventory. Downstream procurement is still acceptable, and prices at the low-end of the market have slightly increased. As of now, the tax-free quotation for 38-42 grade titanium concentrate is around 1480-1500 yuan/ton, the tax-free quotation for 46 grade 10 titanium concentrate is around 2150-2200 yuan/ton, and the quotation for 47 grade 20 titanium concentrate is around 2350-2480 yuan/ton. In the short term, the market price of titanium concentrate is mainly strong, and the actual transaction price is negotiable.

According to customs data, in November 2023, China imported 370400 tons of titanium ore, an increase of 12.86% year-on-year and 57.82% month on month, with a monthly average price of 287.93 US dollars per ton; From January to November 2023, the cumulative import of titanium ore was 3.9079 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 22.77%, and the import volume increased by about 724700 tons.

In terms of sulfuric acid, the domestic sulfuric acid market prices fell in December. According to monitoring data from Business Society, the average price of sulfuric acid in China was 302 yuan/ton on December 1st, and 278 yuan/ton on November 26th. The price fell by 7.95% during the month. The upstream sulfur market has started to decline slightly, with insufficient cost support. The downstream ammonium phosphate market has slightly declined, and downstream customers have weakened their enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid. The product trend is declining under the contradiction of supply and demand. Business Society sulfuric acid analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic sulfuric acid market is mainly affected by supply and demand, raw materials, and other factors, and the price of sulfuric acid may fluctuate slightly and fall.

3、 Future Market Forecast

The titanium dioxide analyst from Business Society believes that the price of titanium concentrate in Panxi region has fluctuated slightly this month, while the price of sulfuric acid market has fallen. The cost support for titanium dioxide is average. Longqi sent a letter stating that the foreign trade price of titanium dioxide has increased, while Shandong Lubei, Hunan Yutu, and Panzhihua City’s titanium sea have sent letters raising prices, which has to some extent boosted market confidence. It is expected that in the short term, the trend of titanium dioxide will remain stable and mainly focus on consolidation and operation, depending on downstream market demand. The actual transaction price is negotiable.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the 1 # electrolytic manganese market remained stable this week (December 18th to December 25th), while the market price in East China remained stable at 13900 yuan/ton on December 25th.

In terms of manganese ore: This week, the manganese ore market prices experienced a temporary rebound, with silicon manganese futures rising at the beginning of the week and increased confidence among traders. Trading in South Africa’s semi carbonic acid was particularly active. With the decrease in port inventory and the gradual concentration of cargo rights, the sentiment of miners to hold up prices remained unchanged, and prices continued to rise. Some traders closed off and did not report, showing a mentality of holding up and being hesitant to sell. The overall quotation has an increase of about 1-1.5 yuan/ton, making it more difficult to negotiate in the market, It is difficult to inquire about low-priced sources of goods, and actual transactions have followed up. The price of oxidized ore also rose at the end of the week.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the weekly and monthly electrolytic manganese K-bar charts above, it can be seen that prices have been declining for five consecutive months since December 2022. After a slight rebound in May, prices have been declining for three consecutive months since June. The antimony ingot market has fluctuated narrowly since mid August, with a temporary stable operation in November and a slight upward trend in December.

This week, the electrolytic manganese market continued to maintain temporary stability, with spot market prices remaining at 12300-12500 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. There have been no significant changes in supply and demand during the week. Due to the long-term stable operation of the market, spot market trading has been slightly sluggish, and smelters currently have a strong attitude of price support. In terms of demand, downstream steel mills purchase on demand, and the market is waiting for a new round of steel bidding price guidance. Overall, the market lacks clear guidance and sentiment is weak. It is expected that the spot market will operate weakly in the short term, and the market is waiting for a new round of steel bidding price guidance.

Related data:

At the beginning of the week, silicon and manganese futures rose, and there were restrictions on electricity consumption in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia, with slight fluctuations in production. The southern region suffered severe losses, and the scope of production reduction and shutdown continued to expand. Currently, costs are still at a relatively high level. This week, the spot price of silicon and manganese increased by 50-100 yuan/ton. According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the market price of silicon manganese in Ningxia region (specification FeMN68Si18) was around 6150-6250 yuan/ton on December 22, with an average market price of 6215 yuan/ton, up 0.92%.

Steel recruitment situation:

The bidding price for electrolytic manganese in December in Pohang, South Korea is $1780 per ton, an increase of $115 per ton from the bidding price in November. The delivery date is before January 20, 2024.

Related data:

On December 24th, the electrolytic manganese commodity index was 34.68, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 65.32% from the highest point of 100.00 points (2022-03-02) in the cycle, and an increase of 2.57% from the lowest point of 33.81 points on August 14th, 2023. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from March 1, 2022 to present).

On December 24th, the base metal index was 1164 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 27.97% from the highest point in the cycle of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 81.31% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

On December 24th, the non-ferrous index was 1102 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 28.35% from the highest point in the cycle of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and an increase of 81.55% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 51st week of 2023 (12.18-12.22), there were a total of 9 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that showed a month on month increase in commodity prices. The top 3 commodities with the highest increase were aluminum (2.48%), silver (1.99%), and zinc (1.85%). There are a total of 10 products with a month on month decline, and the top 3 products with the largest decline are dysprosium metal (-3.06%), praseodymium neodymium alloy (-2.71%), and dysprosium oxide (-2.62%). The average increase and decrease this week is -0.22%.