According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the stearic acid market showed a trend of first falling and then rising this month. The domestic average price of stearic acid was 8220 yuan/ton on January 1, and 17675 yuan/ton on January 31, with a price increase of 1.82% during the period.

Cause analysis

Cost side: After New Year’s Day, the palm oil market has declined one after another, and after the decline, it has rebounded, mainly oscillating upwards. As the Spring Festival approaches, the stocking market for terminal catering enterprises has started, with demand supporting, and the palm oil market continues to rise. Malaysian palm oil in the external market is currently in a period of reduced production, with bullish support and a significant increase in palm oil prices.

Demand side: Downstream PVC spot market prices first fell and then rose, and overall prices fell. In the first half of this month, the spot market price of PVC fell. The enthusiasm for market inquiries is average, and market transactions are light. In the middle of the month, the trading situation was average. In the latter half of the month, the spot market stopped falling and rose, and the futures market experienced four consecutive rises, driving confidence in the spot market and improving the trading atmosphere. PVC maintenance has gradually resumed, and the operating rate has increased compared to December. In mid to early January, the load rate of the domestic semi steel tire industry was around 7.8 floors, while the load rate of the full steel tire industry was around 6.2 floors. But as the Spring Festival approaches, some steel tire companies will start their holidays in late January, but some steel tire companies are still operating at high loads to prepare for post holiday shipments.

Future Market Forecast

This month, the stearic acid market showed a trend of first falling and then rising. After the price of raw palm fell, it rebounded and began to fluctuate and rise. Therefore, it has provided favorable support for the cost of stearic acid. Although the downstream device load has increased compared to December, the on-site inventory is loose, and the market purchases stearic acid spot on demand. Overall, it is expected that the market for stearic acid will mainly fluctuate in the later stage.

According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, the price of caustic soda remained stable this week, with the average market price in Shandong region from the beginning of the week to the weekend at 3300 yuan/ton. According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 4th week of 2024 (1.22-1.26), there was one commodity that rose, three commodities that fell, and three commodities that rose or fell to zero in the chlor alkali industry price list. The main rising commodities include PVC (0.83%); The main commodities falling are: light soda ash (-2.46%), flake alkali (-1.00%), and baking soda (-0.07%). The average increase and decrease this week is -0.39%.

Upstream caustic soda

According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, the price of caustic soda has remained stable this week, with an average market price of 784 yuan/ton from the beginning of the week to the weekend. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is currently stable, with a mainstream market price of around 730-800 yuan/ton for 32% ion exchange membrane caustic soda. The price of caustic soda in Jiangsu region is currently stable, with a mainstream market price of around 800-860 yuan/ton for 32% ion exchange membrane caustic soda.

Business Society analysts believe that the price of caustic soda has stabilized this week, and downstream purchases are more on demand. The supply-demand game, taking into account the short-term or sustained consolidation of caustic soda prices, depends on downstream market demand.

Baking soda, also known as sodium bicarbonate, is an inorganic salt with small white crystals. It is a white crystalline powder, odorless, and easily soluble in water. It slowly decomposes in humid or hot air, producing carbon dioxide, and completely decomposes when heated to 270 ° C. When exposed to acid, it strongly decomposes and produces carbon dioxide, which is commonly used in fermentation powders. Its aqueous solution is weakly alkaline and does not cause pollution to daily water. The powder can also be used as a natural lubricating powder, as well as a detergent or blending agent, easily removing oil stains on stainless steel items and stains on clothing. It has a wide range of uses.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the overall price of baking soda has increased in 2023. The average market price at the beginning of the year was 2530 yuan/ton, and the average market price at the end of the year was 2688 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 6.25%.

Take a look at the monthly K-bar chart of baking soda. From the chart, it can be seen that baking soda will rise for 4 months and fall for 8 months in 2023.

Take a look at the annual price comparison chart of baking soda. From the chart, it can be seen that the overall price of baking soda in 2023 has been operating at a median level recently (2021-2023).

Let’s take a look at the specific price trend. From the beginning of the year to early June, prices have been declining, from early June to late August, prices have been consolidating, from late August to early October, prices have risen, prices have fallen after the National Day holiday, from October 7th to December 10th, prices have been in an upward trend, and then until the end of the year, prices have been consolidating.

From the beginning of the year to early June, prices have been continuously declining, mainly due to the weak operation of upstream soda ash prices, and the overall trading atmosphere is average. Downstream demand for soda ash is average, and more purchases are still made on demand, with a strong wait-and-see attitude. The supply and demand game between upstream and downstream has led market participants to have a strong bearish attitude towards the future. Downstream industries such as pharmaceuticals, textiles, and food have a high demand for baking soda through on-demand procurement, resulting in weak baking soda prices. From early June to late August, prices have been showing a consolidation trend, mainly due to the consolidation of upstream soda ash prices. Some soda ash enterprises have undergone maintenance, and the supply of soda ash is slightly tight. The overall trading atmosphere is still good, with downstream replenishment of soda ash and supply-demand competition. It is expected that the strong operation of soda ash prices will be the main trend in the later stage. Downstream industries such as pharmaceuticals, textiles, and food have a high demand for baking soda through on-demand procurement, resulting in a consolidation of baking soda prices.

From late August to early October, prices have risen, and the price of baking soda has been running strong recently. On the one hand, baking soda manufacturers have been experiencing tight supply recently, and on the other hand, the upstream raw material of baking soda, soda ash, has been experiencing a strong upward trend recently. Finally, downstream baking soda has seen good demand in areas such as medicine, textiles, and food. From October 7th to December 10th, prices have been on an upward trend. The upstream raw material, soda ash, has recently shown a strong market trend, while the downstream demand for baking soda, including pharmaceuticals, textiles, and food, has been slightly better than in the previous period. The price of baking soda is mainly improving. From December 10th to the end of the year, the price of baking soda stabilized, and the market for raw materials such as soda ash has recently fluctuated. Downstream pharmaceutical, textile, and food industries such as baking soda have been mainly purchased on demand.

How will the price of baking soda develop in 2024, despite the weak fluctuations in baking soda prices in 2023?

In terms of supply: In terms of changes in the production capacity and operating rate of baking soda in China, the production capacity and output of baking soda in the downstream food, industry, and feed industries continue to expand against the backdrop of continuous growth in demand.

In terms of demand: In terms of the price trend of baking soda in China, the price of baking soda is greatly affected by fluctuations in the prices of upstream main raw materials such as soda ash. The supply side will maintain a relaxed situation, and the production of soda ash will continue to increase in 2024. The inventory will also exceed 3 million tons or about 4 million tons. Glass has a rigid demand for soda ash, and the price in the second half of the year may be better than that in the first half of the year.

In terms of import and export: Domestic baking soda production capacity accounts for about 40% of global production capacity, and the export volume is significantly higher than the import volume. In terms of the overall changes in the import and export volume of baking soda in China, with the continuous growth of domestic demand for high-end baking soda, the import volume continues to grow. Although there is still a significant gap compared to exports, the main reason is that with the tightening of domestic environmental policies, desulfurization and denitrification have increased the amount of baking soda used, resulting in a continuous increase in overall import demand.

Business Society analysts believe that the supply of baking soda continues to expand, and downstream soda ash will still have 2.6 million new production capacity in 2024, indicating a continued demand for baking soda. The economy is recovering, and downstream trade unions for baking soda have resumed, which may increase demand for baking soda. Now that the Spring Festival is approaching and downstream demand for baking soda is nearing its end, the price of baking soda has not fluctuated much. After the year, as the weather warms up, the price of baking soda will increase. Overall, it is expected that the price of baking soda will be better in the second half of 2023 than in the first half, depending on downstream market demand.

Zinc prices have risen continuously this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of January 26th, the zinc price was 21426 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.63% compared to January 19th, when the zinc price was 20876 yuan/ton; Compared to January 1st, the zinc price of 21588 yuan/ton decreased by 0.75%. Macro positive factors combined with a decrease in inventory have led to a continuous increase in zinc prices this week.

Macro positive

Macroeconomic Regulation Helps Economic Recovery: The State Council has made it clear to increase the entry of medium and long-term funds into the market, and to focus on stabilizing the market and confidence! The Premier of the State Council emphasized the need to solidly carry out various tasks related to economic and social development this year. To better leverage the role of macroeconomic regulation, proactive fiscal policies should be moderately strengthened, improved in quality and efficiency, prudent monetary policies should be flexible, moderate, precise and effective, enhance the consistency of macroeconomic policy orientation, and effectively consolidate and enhance the positive trend of economic recovery. China has increased its macroeconomic regulation efforts to help the domestic economy recover, which is beneficial for the non-ferrous sector and has led to a rise in non-ferrous metals. Positive factors have stimulated a continuous increase in zinc prices this week.

Overseas macroeconomic benefits: Markit manufacturing PMI in the United States expanded in January, the US dollar index quickly fell, concerns about recession in the Eurozone eased, and manufacturing rebounded beyond expectations in January. The initial real GDP growth in the fourth quarter of the United States was 3.3% higher than expected, while the European economy rebounded beyond expectations. The macroeconomic situation was positive, providing support for the rise of the non-ferrous sector and increasing support for the rise in zinc prices.

Weakened supply

The processing fee for zinc concentrate has continued to decline, reaching a new low since October 2022; The tight supply situation at the mining end of the zinc market continues, and as the Spring Festival approaches, smelters are still in the stage of reserving raw materials in the first quarter, and their procurement is relatively active. The tight mining situation provides cost support for zinc prices. The profits of smelters are in an inverted state, and some smelters have experienced maintenance and production reduction. Expected decrease in zinc supply in the market.

Since January, LME zinc inventory has steadily decreased. On January 25th, LME zinc inventory decreased by 2100 tons, and LME zinc inventory reached a new low of 193475 tons in two months. This week, the inventory of Shanghai zinc in the Shanghai futures market decreased again. On January 26th, the inventory of Shanghai zinc in futures was 3821 tons, a decrease of 1354 tons this week. The total inventory of Shanghai zinc this week was 22647 tons, a slight increase of 45 tons. The overall LME zinc inventory and Shanghai zinc inventory are both at a low level, indicating insufficient supply in the zinc market.

Decreased demand

As the year-end approaches, downstream sectors have gradually entered a holiday period. Last week, the operating rate of galvanized sectors declined significantly, with a weekly operating rate decrease of 2.76%; Most die-casting zinc alloy companies will start reducing production lines and taking maintenance breaks in late January; Last week, the orders of various downstream sectors in the zinc oxide sector increased and decreased, and the overall operating rate remained weak. This week, as zinc oxide enterprises continued to holiday, the operating rate of enterprises continued to decline. As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream production has significantly declined, downstream consumption is weak, and zinc prices are bearish.

Future Market Forecast

According to data analysts from Business Society, there have been continuous macroeconomic benefits both domestically and internationally in recent times, and the expectation of economic recovery is accelerating. Coupled with weak supply and demand in the zinc market, the support for the recent rise in the zinc market is increasing. However, due to poor demand, the upward space for zinc prices is limited, and zinc prices may fluctuate and consolidate in the future.

Recent price trends of isooctanol

According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, cost support has increased, and downstream demand is average. This week, the price of isooctanol in the Shandong region has fluctuated and fallen. This week, the average price of isooctanol in the mainstream market in Shandong fell from 12925 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 12900 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.19%. Weekend prices increased by 28.57% year-on-year.

Upstream support increases, downstream demand weakens

From the supply side perspective, the mainstream manufacturers of isooctanol in Shandong have seen a slight decline in their quotations this week, with average inventory levels.

From the upstream raw material market of isooctanol, the propylene market saw a slight increase this week, with prices rising from 6733.25 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 6863.25 yuan/ton over the weekend, an increase of 1.93%, and a year-on-year decrease of 9.22% over the weekend. Part of the propylene plants in Shandong region have shut down, and with a favorable supply side, the market atmosphere has improved. Downstream players have actively entered the market, and on-site inventory has decreased to a low level. The focus of the propylene market continues to shift upwards.

From the downstream market situation of isooctanol, the DOP market price fluctuated and fell this week. The DOP price dropped from 12080 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 12030 yuan/ton on the weekend, an increase of 0.41%, and the weekend price increased by 18.87% year-on-year. The operating rate of downstream DOP enterprises is temporarily stable, and downstream procurement of isooctanol is generally active, with a focus on on-demand procurement.

Future prospects

In late January, the market for isooctanol in Shandong may experience slight fluctuations and gains. The upstream propylene market has strong upward momentum and good cost support. Downstream DOP demand is good, and there is an upward trend in the downstream market. Business Society Isooctanol analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic Isooctanol market may experience slight fluctuations and increases due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the ex factory price of hydrogenated benzene in North China fluctuated narrowly from January 12 to January 19, 2024. Last week, it was 7433.33 yuan/ton, and this week it was 7800 yuan/ton, up 4.93%.

In terms of crude oil: International crude oil futures rose on January 18th. The settlement price of the main WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $73.95 per barrel, with an increase of $1.47 or 2.0%. The settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures main contract was $79.10 per barrel, an increase of $1.22 or 1.6%.

On January 17, 2024, Sinopec’s listed price for pure benzene was increased by 250 yuan/ton, with a current implementation of 7850 yuan/ton.

Other companies: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 7750 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 7600 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical quoted 7663 yuan/ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 7750 yuan/ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical quoted 7600 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of pure benzene has slightly increased this week. On January 15th, the price of pure benzene was 7497 yuan/ton, and on Friday (January 19th), the price of pure benzene was 7850 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.94% from last week and 11.9% from the same period last year.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. The weekly K-bar chart of pure benzene shows that the pure benzene market has seen more ups and downs in recent times.

In terms of the industrial chain, the crude oil market continued to rise this week, with styrene prices rising and pure benzene prices rising externally. Multiple positive factors have affected the continuous upward trend of the pure benzene market next week. Sinopec has raised the listed price of pure benzene twice to 7850 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of 400 yuan/ton. Driven by the pure benzene market, hydrogenated benzene enterprises have raised their ex factory prices to 7700-7800 yuan/ton this week, and the current market atmosphere is relatively strong.

This week, the hydrogenated benzene market has shown an overall upward trend, with a spot market increase of approximately 250-350 yuan/ton. In terms of supply, with the recent increase in the price of hydrogenated benzene, enterprises are currently actively starting production, and some enterprises that underwent early maintenance have resumed production. The operating rate has slightly increased within the week, and the expected increase in hydrogenated benzene supply is expected. In terms of demand, some downstream enterprises undergo maintenance, but as the Spring Festival approaches, downstream enterprises have varying degrees of stocking plans, so the market expects overall good demand in the near future. Overall, the trend of crude oil is somewhat volatile, and currently there is limited guidance for the market. The release of downstream stocking demand has driven up the market atmosphere, but as prices continue to rise, downstream receiving capacity may decline, and it is expected that the upward space of the hydrogenated benzene market is limited.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of cryolite in Henan Province has recently slightly increased. On January 16th, the average market price in Henan Province was 7750 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton compared to the average price of 7700 yuan/ton on January 8th, an increase of 0.65%.

Recently, the ice crystal market has remained stable with minor fluctuations, and some companies have raised their prices. The upstream product supply is tight, and the cost support for cryolite still exists. cryolite manufacturers are mainly affected by costs, and their quotations are firm. Downstream buyers of high priced cryolite are relatively weak, and they mainly enter the market to purchase according to demand. There is a game of supply and demand on the market, and the cryolite market is watching and consolidating. As of January 16th, the ex factory quotation for cryolite in Shandong region is 7000-8600 yuan/ton; The ex factory quotation for cryolite in Henan region is between 7200-8700 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 200 yuan/ton within the range.

The upstream fluorite market remained stable, with an average market price of 3431.25 yuan/ton on January 16th, which is the same as the price of 3431.25 yuan/ton on January 8th. The tight exploitation of upstream mines and the shortage of raw materials have restricted the operation of fluorite enterprises, and some manufacturers have limited production. In addition, the northern region is affected by low temperature, rain and snow weather, and some manufacturers have maintained low production and production, resulting in a tight market spot. At the same time, the downstream market is not good, with on-demand procurement being the main focus. The fluorite market is operating steadily, and the cost support for cryolite is still acceptable.

Market forecast: Ice crystal raw material spot is tight, enterprise cost pressure still exists, ice crystal manufacturers remain stable, downstream purchases follow up on demand, market trading atmosphere is weak, and supply and demand on the market are deadlocked. It is expected that the ice crystal market will continue to fluctuate in the price range, and attention will be paid to upstream price changes and downstream follow-up in the future.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the overall price of refined petroleum coke in Shandong market has increased this week. As of January 14th, the price of refined petroleum coke in Shandong market was 1787.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.70% from January 8th at 1775.00 yuan/ton.

Cost side: The international crude oil market has been fluctuating and declining this week, mainly due to concerns about future energy demand caused by Saudi Arabia’s comprehensive reduction in crude oil prices, as well as increased production from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+), putting pressure on the oil market.

Supply side: Currently, sponge coke shipments at the port are good, with fast delivery speed. Recently, there have been fewer arrivals of petroleum coke at the port, and the overall inventory of petroleum coke in the port has declined. This week, downstream enterprises actively stocked up, with good shipments from local refineries and overall low inventory, resulting in an overall increase in the price of local refined petroleum coke.

On the demand side: As of January 12th, the number of furnaces opened this week was 301, an increase of 3 compared to last week. Among them, Yunnan and Fujian each increased by 2 units, Guizhou and Sichuan each decreased by 1 unit, Yunnan and Hunan each decreased by 2 units, and Chongqing increased by 1 unit. Recently, some silicon factories on the supply side have started resuming production, and some silicon factories in Chongqing and Yunnan have started production to deliver orders. However, according to the data as of the 11th, the number of weekly furnaces has increased. At present, the demand for purchasing petroleum coke from metallic silicon is still acceptable, supporting the petroleum coke market.

This week, the shipment of sulfur calcined coke was average, and the price of calcined coke slightly increased. The price of petroleum coke was high, and the cost of calcined coke was supported.

The electrolytic aluminum market continued to decline this week, with prices as of January 14th at 19143 yuan/ton. The price of alumina has fallen, while the price of electrolytic aluminum continues to decline. As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream production has gradually stopped or decreased, resulting in limited demand for electrolytic aluminum. The overall market situation of carbon for aluminum is still good, and the purchase of petroleum coke is maintained as a mandatory requirement.

Market forecast: Currently, downstream demand for petroleum coke is still acceptable, but with the impact of high prices of locally refined petroleum coke, downstream wait-and-see sentiment has increased, and procurement is cautious. It is expected that the overall high-level consolidation of locally refined petroleum coke will be the main trend in the near future.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of January 15, 2024, the reference market price of domestically produced industrial grade propylene glycol was 8066 yuan/ton. Compared with January 12 (reference price of propylene glycol was 8166 yuan/ton), the price was reduced by 100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.22%; Compared to January 1st (reference price of propylene glycol at 8300 yuan/ton), the price has decreased by 234 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.81%.

From the monitoring chart of Business Society data, it can be seen that in early January, the domestic propylene glycol market as a whole was weak and had a downward trend. Entering this week, the overall decline in the propylene glycol market has not stopped. The atmosphere in the propylene glycol market is light, with flat new orders. The focus of the propylene glycol market continues to move towards a lower level, and some factories continue to lower their propylene glycol shipping prices by about 100-200 yuan/ton. As of January 15th, the domestic propylene glycol market price reference is around 7900-8200 yuan/ton. At present, the propylene glycol industry is trading actively, but the overall market trading is weak, and downstream users are cautious in purchasing just in need. The overall supply and demand transmission in the market is slow.

Market analysis of propylene glycol

At present, the overall performance of the domestic propylene glycol market is weak, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment on the market. Inquiries and transactions are both cautious, and the overall market demand performance is lacking. The propylene glycol data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in the short term, the domestic propylene glycol market will mostly adjust and operate within a narrow range, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

The price of plasticizer DOP rose first and then fell this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of January 12th, the price of DOP was 12120 yuan/ton, which increased and then decreased from the price of 12058.33 yuan/ton on January 5th, with an increase of 0.51%. The cost support for plasticizer DOP has weakened, with DOP prices rising first and then falling this week.

The price of isooctanol rose first and then fell this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 12th, the quotation for isooctanol was 13000 yuan/ton, which increased and then decreased compared to the quotation of 12962.50 yuan/ton on January 5th, with an increase of 0.29%; Compared to the price of 13050 yuan/ton on January 10th, the price of isooctanol has decreased by 0.38%. This week, the production of downstream plasticizers has stabilized, and large plasticizer manufacturers are in urgent need of procurement. The transaction volume of isooctanol has weakened, and the high price support of isooctanol is insufficient. The price of isooctanol has stopped rising and fallen, and the support for the rise of raw materials has weakened. The downward pressure on DOP has increased.

The price of phthalic anhydride fluctuates and falls

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of January 12th, the quotation for phthalic anhydride was 7575 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.46% from the price of 7687.50 yuan/ton on January 5th. After the holiday, downstream demand for phthalic anhydride procurement has been hindered by high-end phthalic anhydride, resulting in a decrease in phthalic anhydride prices, a decline in phthalic anhydride market, and a decrease in DOP costs.

Future expectations

Business Society plasticizer product data analysts believe that this week, the raw material isooctanol rose first and then fell, the phthalic anhydride market fell, and the cost support for plasticizer DOP weakened. In addition, the operating load of plasticizer factories stabilized this week, and the support for plasticizer price increases weakened. In the future, the cost support for stable supply is weakened, and the support for rising DOP is weakened. It is expected that the price of DOP will be mainly weak and consolidating in the future.