According to data monitored by Business Society, as of December 11th, the average price of industrial grade premium cyclohexane in China was 7133.33 yuan/ton, which is slightly weak compared to the same period last week. The price has decreased by 2.28% compared to the same period last week. The overall market supply and demand are balanced, with manufacturers mainly offering discounts and taking orders.

The market price of cyclohexane has slightly declined, with the mainstream price around 7133.33 yuan/ton, a 2.28% decrease compared to the same period last week. The mainstream manufacturer’s quotation range is maintained at around 7000 yuan/ton, and downstream procurement is on demand. The willingness to stock up is not strong, the demand is average, and upstream support is weak.

Chemical index: On December 11th, the chemical index was 874 points, a decrease of 3 points from yesterday, a decrease of 37.57% from the highest point in the cycle of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and an increase of 46.15% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

Business Society’s cyclohexane analyst believes that in the short term, the cyclohexane market will mainly operate steadily, with a narrow and weak range.

Recent trends in urea prices

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic urea market prices have slightly declined this week, with urea prices dropping from 2601.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2568.33 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 1.28%, and a year-on-year decrease of 6.40% at the end of the week. On December 10th, the urea commodity index was 119.46, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 21.58% from the highest point in the cycle of 152.33 points (2022-05-15), and an increase of 114.86% from the lowest point of 55.60 points on August 17th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to present)

Cost support is average, downstream demand weakens, and urea supply is sufficient

From the supply side perspective, the mainstream price of urea in China has slightly declined this week.

From the data of the upstream and downstream industry chains, it can be seen that there have been ups and downs in the urea upstream market this week. The price of liquefied natural gas has dropped significantly, from 5930.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 5734.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 3.31%, and a year-on-year decrease of 20.29% over the weekend. The price of smokeless coal has significantly increased, with the price of Yangquan smokeless coal (washing medium block) increasing by 405 yuan/ton to 1505 yuan/ton over the weekend; The price of liquid ammonia has significantly increased, rising from 3813.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 4056.67 yuan/ton over the weekend, an increase of 6.38%, and a year-on-year decrease of 17.04% over the weekend. Upstream raw material prices fluctuate, providing moderate support for urea prices.

From a demand perspective: Agricultural demand has weakened, while industrial demand is average. Agriculture has entered the off-season. Composite fertilizer, board, and melamine enterprises generally start construction, with a focus on procurement for immediate needs. This week, the downstream price of melamine in urea slightly decreased, dropping from 7300.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7250.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.68%. From the perspective of supply, some enterprises have completed maintenance, resulting in a further increase in daily urea production and sufficient supply.

Slight fluctuation and decline in the future market

In mid to late December, the domestic urea market may experience a slight fluctuation and decline. Business Society urea analysts believe that the upstream urea market has ups and downs, and the cost support for urea is average. Downstream industrial demand is average, while agricultural demand is weakening. The daily production of urea is around 180000 tons, with sufficient supply. In the future, urea may experience a narrow range of fluctuations and decline.

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of Shengyishe, as of December 8th, the average price of high-quality rubber grade white carbon black in China was 5933.33 yuan/ton. This week, the market price of white carbon black remained stable, with the mainstream price currently around 6000 yuan/ton.

This week, the market price of white carbon black has remained stable, with the mainstream price around 6000 yuan/ton. The negotiation atmosphere is still good, and downstream demand is mainly for procurement, with average demand and weak stocking enthusiasm. Manufacturers mainly offer discounts and take orders, and the number of new orders is limited.

Chemical index: On December 7th, the chemical index was 876 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 37.43% from the highest point in the cycle of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and an increase of 46.49% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

Business Society’s white carbon black analyst believes that in the short term, the white carbon black market is stable, with a weak trend, and the mainstream price is around 6000 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the operating rate of Shandong Isooctanol plant decreased in early December, but the downstream plasticizer market surged. The operating rate of the plasticizer industry increased, and downstream demand increased. Coupled with low inventory of Isooctanol manufacturers, the supply of Isooctanol was tight, and the market price of Isooctanol increased significantly. The price of isooctanol increased from 11500.00 yuan/ton on December 1st to 12750.00 yuan/ton on December 7th, an increase of 1250 yuan/ton, an increase of 10.87%, and a year-on-year increase of 37.10%.

On December 6th, the Isooctanol Commodity Index was 90.74, an increase of 4.42 points from yesterday, a decrease of 34.01% from the highest point in the cycle of 137.50 points (2021-08-08), and an increase of 158.15% from the lowest point of 35.15 points on February 1st, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to present)

Market situation: At the beginning of the month, the mainstream market price of isooctanol in Shandong Province increased significantly. Currently, the market for isooctanol in Shandong region is on an upward trend.

Recent operating rate of the isooctanol industry chain

Operating rate: At the beginning of the month, the operating rate of isooctanol units decreased, and the operating rate of isooctanol units in Shandong region decreased from 95% in November to around 92%. At the same time, isooctanol units in South China have not yet resumed, and inventory of isooctanol manufacturers is also at a low level, resulting in tight supply of isooctanol.

Cost side: Propylene market fluctuates and falls

In early December, the ex factory price of propylene fluctuated and fell. The price of propylene dropped from 7105.75 yuan/ton on December 1st to 7018.25 yuan/ton on December 7th, a decrease of 1.23% and a year-on-year decrease of 8.50%. The upstream market of isooctanol has slightly declined, with insufficient cost support, which has a negative impact on the price of isooctanol.

On the demand side, the DOP market has seen a significant increase

In early December, the DOP market price significantly increased. The price of DOP increased from 11450.00 yuan/ton on December 1st to 11958.33 yuan/ton on December 7th, an increase of 4.44% and a year-on-year increase of 21.53%. The downstream DOP market has significantly increased, with the operating rate of DOP manufacturers rising from 59% in November to 62% in early December. Downstream customers have increased their enthusiasm for purchasing isooctanol. The increase in demand side procurement provides stable support for the price increase of isooctanol.

In the future, the domestic isooctanol market may experience a slight fluctuation and increase in mid December. Although upstream propylene prices have slightly declined and cost support is average, downstream DOP prices have significantly increased, downstream operating rates have increased, and downstream manufacturers have increased their enthusiasm for purchasing isooctanol. Analysts from Shengyishe Isooctanol believe that in the short term, the Shandong Isooctanol market may experience slight fluctuations and gains due to various factors such as supply and demand, as well as raw materials.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the domestic ethanol market was operating weakly in November. From November 1st to 30th, the average price of domestic ethanol producers dropped from 6895 yuan/ton to 6787 yuan/ton, with a 1.56% decrease in price during the cycle and a 1.31% year-on-year increase in price.

At the beginning of the month, there was a significant difference in the operating rates of production enterprises between regions. However, downstream procurement was mainly in demand, inventory accumulation was severe, and the ethanol market was weak and consolidated, leading to an increased bearish sentiment in the market. In mid month, new downstream orders continued to be weak and did not show any improvement. There was an increase in supply, and transportation conditions in some areas were limited due to weather conditions; The demand side has not improved, and low-end transactions in the ethanol market prices. In the latter half of the month, the impact of snowfall weather in some areas on logistics delivery time and delivery prices has led to a weak consolidation of the ethanol market.

In terms of cost, as we enter mid November, the market volume of corn in the production areas continues to increase, and the domestic corn market supply continues to rebound. The new season of corn production has become a certainty, and downstream trading entities have a strong wait-and-see attitude. The demand for animal husbandry feed continues to be sluggish, coupled with the continuous arrival of imported corn to ports, the domestic corn market supply is relatively loose, and the overall price of corn in the market is under pressure and fluctuates weakly. The cost side of ethanol is influenced by bearish factors.

On the supply side, there is a significant difference in the operating rates of production enterprises in different regions, with 30.74% operating in East China and 89.10% operating in Northeast China; The operating rate in the southern and western regions is 11.52%. In the short term, domestic ethanol production in Northeast China is stable or slightly increasing, and small factories have plans to start production. The operating rate in East China fluctuates at a low level. The operating rate of coal to ethanol remains stable in the short term. The supply side of ethanol is affected by bearish factors.

On the demand side, most ethyl acetate factories will maintain normal production status in November. Other chemical essential procurement. The demand for Baijiu is average. The short-term demand for ethanol is mixed.

In the future market forecast, the cost is bearish, and there are significant regional differences in supply and demand. Another round of snowfall is approaching, which will affect the circulation speed of goods and the increase in freight rates in the main production areas of Northeast China. Ethanol analysts from Business Society predict that domestic ethanol will continue to be weak and downward in the short term.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the spot price of styrene in Shandong Province rose first and then fell in November. At the beginning of the month, the spot price of styrene in Shandong was 8783.33 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the spot price of styrene in Shandong was 8416.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.17%. The price has increased by 9.31% compared to the same period last year.

styrene

The market price of styrene fell in November. From the above chart, it can be seen that the price of styrene has been mainly declining since mid September, and the decline in the market this month is greater than the increase. The main reason for the decline is the decline in international oil prices and poor cost support. Currently, the supply and demand of styrene are deadlocked, and transactions are slow. It is expected that the short-term volatility and decline in the styrene market will be the main reasons.

In terms of raw materials, the price of pure benzene fluctuated and fell in November, with a price of 7913 yuan/ton on November 1st; On November 30th, the price was 7200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.01% from the beginning of the month and an increase of 10.05% from the same period last year. Holders actively sell, but downstream customers have a poor buying atmosphere. Affected by some unplanned parking news from downstream, market negotiations continue to decline. The Shandong refinery reported a significant drop in prices, but the magnitude of the drop was lower than market expectations, resulting in weak transactions.

In terms of downstream, the three major downstream markets of styrene experienced mixed fluctuations in November. At the beginning of this month, the average price of PS was 9650 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average price of PS was 9700 yuan/ton. The upstream raw materials of PS have declined, and market confidence is insufficient. It is expected that the short-term domestic PS (polystyrene) price may mainly fluctuate downward.

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of Shengyishe, the price of EPS ordinary materials fluctuated and fell in November. The average quote for EPS ordinary materials at the beginning of the month was 10100.00 yuan/ton, and the average price for EPS ordinary materials at the end of the month was 10076.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.23%. In November, domestic EPS prices were affected by the decline in costs, and it is expected that the domestic EPS market will mainly experience a narrow range decline trend.

The domestic ABS market trend in November was weak and consolidated. In late November, the overall performance of the upstream three materials of ABS was mixed, and overall support for the cost side of ABS was average. The petrochemical plant has maintained its early stage of operation, and supply pressure continues. The demand side consumption is poor, and merchants are often bearish about the future market. It is expected that the ABS market will struggle to overcome the supply-demand contradiction in the short term and may maintain a weak consolidation trend.

At present, crude oil has rebounded, but the low supply and demand of styrene spot has suppressed the rise of styrene, and it is expected that the short-term volatility of the styrene market will be the main trend.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of aniline has slightly decreased this week. On November 27th, the market price of aniline was 12750 yuan/ton, and on December 1st, the price was 12015 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.76% from last week.

2、 Analysis and Review

Pure benzene: Yesterday, pure benzene had a slight upward trend in negotiations, but spot resource transactions were weak, and there was insufficient buying gas on the market. Transactions were mainly in the distant months. Shandong refineries have weak willingness to hold goods and have significantly lowered prices to promote shipments. After the price drop, the market’s buying sentiment improved, and a large number of low-priced goods were purchased to deliver orders within the week, resulting in better transactions. In late December, pure benzene in the night market was discussed to have risen to around 7050 yuan/ton, but crude oil initially rose and then fell before finally closing down. It is expected that pure benzene in East China will fluctuate and consolidate in the morning. On Friday (December 1st), the price of pure benzene was 7020 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.29% from last week and an increase of 7.45% from the same period last year.

Nitric acid: The domestic price of nitric acid has slightly increased this week. On November 27th, the price was 2133 yuan/ton, and on December 1st, it was 2235 yuan/ton. The price increased by 6.42% compared to last week and decreased by 8.13% compared to the same period last year.

3、 Future expectations

The aniline market has a strong bearish atmosphere, with lower willingness to reserve downstream positions and a focus on essential purchases. It is expected that aniline will steadily decline.

Price trend

In November, the domestic POM market stopped falling and rebounded, with a narrow increase in spot prices. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of November 30th, the mixed price of domestic POM was 13000 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of 1.36% compared to the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

According to the analysis system chart of the commodity market in Shengyishe, the price of formaldehyde in the Shandong region slightly declined in November. The raw material methanol market is fluctuating and consolidating, with average cost support. Downstream board factories continue to have weak demand due to environmental impact. Formaldehyde manufacturers are operating normally, and production enterprises are under great pressure to ship. The market is declining, which provides poor support for POM.

In terms of supply:

After the overall operating rate of domestic POM enterprises fell in November, it rebounded. At the beginning of the month, the industry’s device load was at a high level of over 80%, and the range fell below 77% before rebounding. At the end of the month, the overall load returned to 81%. Due to the high supply pressure at the beginning, the decline in spot prices was concentrated in the first ten days. Subsequently, after continuous digestion of market supply, most enterprise inventories returned to low levels, and the supply side’s support for POM spot goods has been restored. However, it is feared that inventory will accumulate in the future.

In terms of demand:

In November, the production level of downstream POM enterprises in China was average, with enterprises mainly digesting inventory. On exchange trading was weak, and there was no significant increase in POM consumption. After the price stopped falling and rebounded, the operators followed up with more caution, and their resistance to high priced goods returned. Overall, the demand side’s support for POM spot prices is average.

Future Market Forecast

The POM market trend in November stopped falling and rebounded. After the domestic polymerization plant’s operating rate was lowered, it returned, and the overall supply of goods on site was abundant, partially easing the supply pressure. At present, manufacturers have stabilized the confidence of traders through market support operations, and some merchants tend to be reluctant to sell their goods. On the demand side, terminal enterprises operate at a low level, with cautious purchasing operations and resistance to high priced sources, resulting in average on-site trading. At the end of the month, under the containment of weak costs, lagging demand, and high supply, business owners have weak confidence in the future. It is expected that the POM market may experience limited growth in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the reference average price of 85% hot process phosphoric acid in China was 7200 yuan/ton on November 1st. On November 29th, the reference average price of 85% hot process phosphoric acid in China was 7000 yuan/ton. This month, the domestic price of hot process phosphoric acid decreased by 2.78%.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China was 6950 yuan/ton on November 1st, and 6833 yuan/ton on November 29th. This month, the domestic wet process phosphoric acid price has dropped by 1.68%.

2、 Market analysis

The price of phosphoric acid in the market has fluctuated and fallen this month. In early November, the market price of hot process phosphoric acid adjusted narrowly, while the price of wet process phosphoric acid remained stable. The prices of raw phosphorus ore and yellow phosphorus have risen, leading to increased cost support. The operating rate of phosphoric acid enterprises is stable, there is a large amount of market inventory, and downstream demand is not performing well. The industry is mainly wait-and-see. In mid to late November, the prices of hot process phosphoric acid and wet process phosphoric acid fluctuated and fell. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus has been lowered, and the cost support for phosphoric acid is insufficient. Downstream on-demand procurement results in fewer new orders in the market and poor on-site trading. As of November 29th, the factory price of 85 industrial grade thermal phosphoric acid in Yunnan region is around 7000 yuan/ton, the factory price of 85 industrial grade thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6500-7150 yuan/ton, and the factory price of 85 industrial grade thermal phosphoric acid in Sichuan region is around 7000 yuan/ton. The domestic market quotation for 85 wet process phosphoric acid is around 6150-7550 yuan/ton.

Market for raw material yellow phosphorus. In November, the price of yellow phosphorus first rose and then fell, and overall, the market price of yellow phosphorus slightly decreased. In early November, due to the impact of power rationing policies in Yunnan, yellow phosphorus enterprises in Yunnan suspended their quotations. The yellow phosphorus market in Sichuan region is trending upwards, with strong reluctance from enterprises to sell and rising prices. In the middle of the month, the overall trading situation of yellow phosphorus in the market was light, downstream procurement was cautious, and there was a wait-and-see trend. The acceptance of high priced yellow phosphorus was poor, and the market quotation for yellow phosphorus was loose, resulting in a price reduction. In the latter half of the year, the price of yellow phosphorus in the market continued to decrease slightly, with weak downstream market demand and less active procurement, with a focus on essential needs. Be cautious and observe, as the market on both supply and demand sides is relatively stagnant, with companies mainly focusing on raising prices. As of now, the market quotation in Sichuan region is mostly around 25600 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiable.

Market for raw material phosphate rock. This month, the overall domestic phosphate ore market has shown a steady upward trend, with the focus of the phosphate ore market constantly moving towards the high-end. Many domestic mining enterprises, including those in Guizhou, Sichuan, and Guangxi, have raised the prices of mid to high-end grade phosphate rock, with a cumulative increase of about 50-90 yuan/ton for 30% grade phosphate rock within the month. The supply of low-priced goods in phosphate ore yards is gradually decreasing, and the price difference between high and low prices is narrowing. As of November 29th, the domestic 30% grade phosphate ore market price is referenced around 1000-1100 yuan/ton, and the high-end price is referenced around 1150 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society’s phosphoric acid analyst believes that the recent trend of the phosphoric acid market is mainly downward. The market for raw material yellow phosphorus is weakening, with insufficient cost support. Downstream demand is weak, with a focus on purchasing essential goods and an increased mentality of buying up rather than falling. It is expected that the short-term phosphoric acid market prices will be mainly weak.

1、 Price trend

According to monitoring of commodity data, the price of yellow phosphorus rose first and then fell in November, and overall, the market price of yellow phosphorus has slightly decreased. On November 1st, the average price of yellow phosphorus was 25960 yuan/ton, and on November 28th, the average price was 25729.33 yuan/ton. The monthly price has decreased by 0.89%.

2、 Market analysis

In November, the price of yellow phosphorus first rose and then fell, and overall, the market price of yellow phosphorus slightly decreased. In early November, due to the impact of power rationing policies in Yunnan, yellow phosphorus enterprises in Yunnan suspended their quotations. The yellow phosphorus market in Sichuan region is trending upwards, with strong reluctance from enterprises to sell and rising prices. In the middle of the month, the overall trading situation of yellow phosphorus in the market was light, downstream procurement was cautious, and there was a wait-and-see trend. The acceptance of high priced yellow phosphorus was poor, and the market quotation for yellow phosphorus was loose, resulting in a price reduction. In the latter half of the year, the price of yellow phosphorus in the market continued to decrease slightly, with weak downstream market demand and less active procurement, with a focus on essential needs. Be cautious and observe, as the market on both supply and demand sides is relatively stagnant, and companies are mainly focusing on raising prices. As of now, the market quotation in Sichuan region is mostly around 25600 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiable.

In terms of phosphate ore, according to data monitoring by Business Society, as of November 28, 2023, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate ore in China was around 1054 yuan/ton. Compared with November 1, 2023 (reference price of phosphate ore is 1024 yuan/ton), the price increased by 30 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.93%. At present, the overall trading atmosphere of phosphate ore is still good, and the mentality of the industry is good. The support for the phosphate ore market from both supply and demand sides is still good. The phosphate ore data analyst of Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic phosphate ore market will mainly operate at high levels, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

In terms of coke, according to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the market price of coke increased in November 2023. The average price of coke on November 1 was 2125 yuan/ton, and on November 28 it was 2226.67 yuan/ton. The monthly price increased by 4.78%. In November, the atmosphere in the coke market was relatively strong, and the supply side saw an increase in coking coal prices, leading to a stronger mentality among coke companies. In terms of demand, as the market atmosphere has strengthened recently, downstream trade has actively entered the market for inquiries, and some inventory has flowed into the trading market. Under the boost of winter storage demand from steel mills, enterprises are actively replenishing their inventory. Overall, the atmosphere in the coke market is relatively strong. Under the tight supply boost, it is expected that the market will continue to operate strongly in the short term.

In terms of phosphoric acid, according to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the reference price of phosphoric acid on November 1st was 7200 yuan/ton, and the average price on November 28th was 7020 yuan/ton. The price decreased by 2.5% during the month. This month, the price of phosphoric acid in the market fluctuated downward, and the market trend of phosphoric acid weakened. The raw material yellow phosphorus market is average, and the cost support for phosphoric acid is insufficient. Coupled with weak downstream demand, the industry holds a bearish sentiment. It is expected that the short-term phosphoric acid market prices will be mainly weak and consolidating.

3、 Future Market Forecast

The yellow phosphorus analyst from the Chemical Branch of Business Society believes that the price of yellow phosphorus rose first and then fell in November. At present, the market trading situation is light, market prices are relatively flexible, low-end prices are difficult to find, and high-end prices are difficult to trade. Manufacturers tend to raise prices, while downstream suppliers lower prices for purchases. The upstream and downstream markets are deadlocked in trading, and businesses are mostly wait-and-see. Overall, it is expected that the market price of yellow phosphorus will remain stable and operate in the short term, with actual transactions being discussed on a single basis.