According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the ex factory price of hydrogenated benzene in North China fluctuated narrowly from January 12 to January 19, 2024. Last week, it was 7433.33 yuan/ton, and this week it was 7800 yuan/ton, up 4.93%.

In terms of crude oil: International crude oil futures rose on January 18th. The settlement price of the main WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $73.95 per barrel, with an increase of $1.47 or 2.0%. The settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures main contract was $79.10 per barrel, an increase of $1.22 or 1.6%.

On January 17, 2024, Sinopec’s listed price for pure benzene was increased by 250 yuan/ton, with a current implementation of 7850 yuan/ton.

Other companies: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 7750 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 7600 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical quoted 7663 yuan/ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 7750 yuan/ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical quoted 7600 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of pure benzene has slightly increased this week. On January 15th, the price of pure benzene was 7497 yuan/ton, and on Friday (January 19th), the price of pure benzene was 7850 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.94% from last week and 11.9% from the same period last year.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. The weekly K-bar chart of pure benzene shows that the pure benzene market has seen more ups and downs in recent times.

In terms of the industrial chain, the crude oil market continued to rise this week, with styrene prices rising and pure benzene prices rising externally. Multiple positive factors have affected the continuous upward trend of the pure benzene market next week. Sinopec has raised the listed price of pure benzene twice to 7850 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of 400 yuan/ton. Driven by the pure benzene market, hydrogenated benzene enterprises have raised their ex factory prices to 7700-7800 yuan/ton this week, and the current market atmosphere is relatively strong.

This week, the hydrogenated benzene market has shown an overall upward trend, with a spot market increase of approximately 250-350 yuan/ton. In terms of supply, with the recent increase in the price of hydrogenated benzene, enterprises are currently actively starting production, and some enterprises that underwent early maintenance have resumed production. The operating rate has slightly increased within the week, and the expected increase in hydrogenated benzene supply is expected. In terms of demand, some downstream enterprises undergo maintenance, but as the Spring Festival approaches, downstream enterprises have varying degrees of stocking plans, so the market expects overall good demand in the near future. Overall, the trend of crude oil is somewhat volatile, and currently there is limited guidance for the market. The release of downstream stocking demand has driven up the market atmosphere, but as prices continue to rise, downstream receiving capacity may decline, and it is expected that the upward space of the hydrogenated benzene market is limited.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of cryolite in Henan Province has recently slightly increased. On January 16th, the average market price in Henan Province was 7750 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton compared to the average price of 7700 yuan/ton on January 8th, an increase of 0.65%.

Recently, the ice crystal market has remained stable with minor fluctuations, and some companies have raised their prices. The upstream product supply is tight, and the cost support for cryolite still exists. cryolite manufacturers are mainly affected by costs, and their quotations are firm. Downstream buyers of high priced cryolite are relatively weak, and they mainly enter the market to purchase according to demand. There is a game of supply and demand on the market, and the cryolite market is watching and consolidating. As of January 16th, the ex factory quotation for cryolite in Shandong region is 7000-8600 yuan/ton; The ex factory quotation for cryolite in Henan region is between 7200-8700 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 200 yuan/ton within the range.

The upstream fluorite market remained stable, with an average market price of 3431.25 yuan/ton on January 16th, which is the same as the price of 3431.25 yuan/ton on January 8th. The tight exploitation of upstream mines and the shortage of raw materials have restricted the operation of fluorite enterprises, and some manufacturers have limited production. In addition, the northern region is affected by low temperature, rain and snow weather, and some manufacturers have maintained low production and production, resulting in a tight market spot. At the same time, the downstream market is not good, with on-demand procurement being the main focus. The fluorite market is operating steadily, and the cost support for cryolite is still acceptable.

Market forecast: Ice crystal raw material spot is tight, enterprise cost pressure still exists, ice crystal manufacturers remain stable, downstream purchases follow up on demand, market trading atmosphere is weak, and supply and demand on the market are deadlocked. It is expected that the ice crystal market will continue to fluctuate in the price range, and attention will be paid to upstream price changes and downstream follow-up in the future.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the overall price of refined petroleum coke in Shandong market has increased this week. As of January 14th, the price of refined petroleum coke in Shandong market was 1787.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.70% from January 8th at 1775.00 yuan/ton.

Cost side: The international crude oil market has been fluctuating and declining this week, mainly due to concerns about future energy demand caused by Saudi Arabia’s comprehensive reduction in crude oil prices, as well as increased production from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+), putting pressure on the oil market.

Supply side: Currently, sponge coke shipments at the port are good, with fast delivery speed. Recently, there have been fewer arrivals of petroleum coke at the port, and the overall inventory of petroleum coke in the port has declined. This week, downstream enterprises actively stocked up, with good shipments from local refineries and overall low inventory, resulting in an overall increase in the price of local refined petroleum coke.

On the demand side: As of January 12th, the number of furnaces opened this week was 301, an increase of 3 compared to last week. Among them, Yunnan and Fujian each increased by 2 units, Guizhou and Sichuan each decreased by 1 unit, Yunnan and Hunan each decreased by 2 units, and Chongqing increased by 1 unit. Recently, some silicon factories on the supply side have started resuming production, and some silicon factories in Chongqing and Yunnan have started production to deliver orders. However, according to the data as of the 11th, the number of weekly furnaces has increased. At present, the demand for purchasing petroleum coke from metallic silicon is still acceptable, supporting the petroleum coke market.

This week, the shipment of sulfur calcined coke was average, and the price of calcined coke slightly increased. The price of petroleum coke was high, and the cost of calcined coke was supported.

The electrolytic aluminum market continued to decline this week, with prices as of January 14th at 19143 yuan/ton. The price of alumina has fallen, while the price of electrolytic aluminum continues to decline. As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream production has gradually stopped or decreased, resulting in limited demand for electrolytic aluminum. The overall market situation of carbon for aluminum is still good, and the purchase of petroleum coke is maintained as a mandatory requirement.

Market forecast: Currently, downstream demand for petroleum coke is still acceptable, but with the impact of high prices of locally refined petroleum coke, downstream wait-and-see sentiment has increased, and procurement is cautious. It is expected that the overall high-level consolidation of locally refined petroleum coke will be the main trend in the near future.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of January 15, 2024, the reference market price of domestically produced industrial grade propylene glycol was 8066 yuan/ton. Compared with January 12 (reference price of propylene glycol was 8166 yuan/ton), the price was reduced by 100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.22%; Compared to January 1st (reference price of propylene glycol at 8300 yuan/ton), the price has decreased by 234 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.81%.

From the monitoring chart of Business Society data, it can be seen that in early January, the domestic propylene glycol market as a whole was weak and had a downward trend. Entering this week, the overall decline in the propylene glycol market has not stopped. The atmosphere in the propylene glycol market is light, with flat new orders. The focus of the propylene glycol market continues to move towards a lower level, and some factories continue to lower their propylene glycol shipping prices by about 100-200 yuan/ton. As of January 15th, the domestic propylene glycol market price reference is around 7900-8200 yuan/ton. At present, the propylene glycol industry is trading actively, but the overall market trading is weak, and downstream users are cautious in purchasing just in need. The overall supply and demand transmission in the market is slow.

Market analysis of propylene glycol

At present, the overall performance of the domestic propylene glycol market is weak, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment on the market. Inquiries and transactions are both cautious, and the overall market demand performance is lacking. The propylene glycol data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in the short term, the domestic propylene glycol market will mostly adjust and operate within a narrow range, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

The price of plasticizer DOP rose first and then fell this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of January 12th, the price of DOP was 12120 yuan/ton, which increased and then decreased from the price of 12058.33 yuan/ton on January 5th, with an increase of 0.51%. The cost support for plasticizer DOP has weakened, with DOP prices rising first and then falling this week.

The price of isooctanol rose first and then fell this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 12th, the quotation for isooctanol was 13000 yuan/ton, which increased and then decreased compared to the quotation of 12962.50 yuan/ton on January 5th, with an increase of 0.29%; Compared to the price of 13050 yuan/ton on January 10th, the price of isooctanol has decreased by 0.38%. This week, the production of downstream plasticizers has stabilized, and large plasticizer manufacturers are in urgent need of procurement. The transaction volume of isooctanol has weakened, and the high price support of isooctanol is insufficient. The price of isooctanol has stopped rising and fallen, and the support for the rise of raw materials has weakened. The downward pressure on DOP has increased.

The price of phthalic anhydride fluctuates and falls

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of January 12th, the quotation for phthalic anhydride was 7575 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.46% from the price of 7687.50 yuan/ton on January 5th. After the holiday, downstream demand for phthalic anhydride procurement has been hindered by high-end phthalic anhydride, resulting in a decrease in phthalic anhydride prices, a decline in phthalic anhydride market, and a decrease in DOP costs.

Future expectations

Business Society plasticizer product data analysts believe that this week, the raw material isooctanol rose first and then fell, the phthalic anhydride market fell, and the cost support for plasticizer DOP weakened. In addition, the operating load of plasticizer factories stabilized this week, and the support for plasticizer price increases weakened. In the future, the cost support for stable supply is weakened, and the support for rising DOP is weakened. It is expected that the price of DOP will be mainly weak and consolidating in the future.

After the decline of the domestic bisphenol A market after New Year’s Day, it stabilized and operated. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic bisphenol A market was quoted at 9465 yuan/ton on January 8th.

The demand for the two downstream products is weak, with insufficient transactions and weak market volatility. The downstream epoxy resin market is weak, and the overall operating rate is less than 50%. Enterprises are mainly bearish about the future market. The East China liquid epoxy resin market offers 13000-13400 yuan/ton of purified water for delivery, and the Mount Huangshan solid epoxy resin market negotiation price is 13000-13400 yuan/ton for cash delivery. The downstream PC market is weak and volatile, with mainstream negotiations for injection grade high-end materials in East China ranging from 16000-17000 yuan/ton.

The cost support weakened, with the overall high level of dual raw materials in the early stage. However, on the 8th, the two major raw material products fell. As of now, the phenol market in East China is quoted at 7150 yuan/ton, and the acetone market in East China is quoted at 7150 yuan/ton.

At the beginning of the week, bidding saw little fluctuation in the upstream and downstream markets, with factories intending to maintain stability. Overnight oil prices plummeted, and the atmosphere in the chemical market was affected. It is expected that bisphenol A will fluctuate narrowly.

Recently (1.1-1.8), the market for trichloromethane has slightly declined. According to data from Business Society, as of January 8th, the price of trichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2016 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.58% from 2070 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The price of raw material methanol has weakened and decreased, while the price of liquid chlorine has slightly rebounded. The cost center of trichloromethane is operating at a low level; After the phased replenishment of downstream warehouses, market transactions have weakened, and the bearish atmosphere in the market has diverged. The trichloromethane market is relatively weak and consolidating. As of January 8th, the mainstream factory price of trichloromethane in Shandong region is around 2000-20060 yuan/ton.

Recently (1.1-1.8), domestic methane chloride production has fluctuated narrowly.

Recently (1.1-1.8), the price of raw material methanol has weakened and decreased, while the price of liquid chlorine has rebounded but remains at a low level. The cost support for trichloromethane is weak. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of January 8th, the spot price of methanol was 2404 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.87% from 2450 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. As of January 8th, the acceptance price of liquid chlorine tank trucks in Shandong region is around 200 yuan/ton, which is generally at a low level.

In the off-season, there is only a small amount of demand for refrigerants at the terminal, and the operating level of refrigerant enterprises is stable, while the demand for trichloromethane is relatively weak. However, in the medium to long term, the overall support for the demand for trichloromethane will weaken.

The methane chloride data analyst from Business Society believes that the demand for trichloromethane is weak in terms of just in demand support, and the cost side remains at a low level. However, there is not much inventory pressure on enterprises, and it is expected that the trichloromethane market will fluctuate narrowly in the later stage.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the propane market in 2023 experienced a roller coaster trend, with a brief rise in the first half of the year before entering a downward channel. After rebounding at the bottom of the second half of the year, it began to fluctuate within the range until the end of the year. On January 1st, the average price of propane in Shandong was 5082 yuan/ton, and the year-end average price was 5618 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year increase of 10.54%. The lowest point of prices for the whole year occurred in early July, a decrease of 25.61% compared to January 1st

In January, the domestic propane market had a good start, with an overall improvement compared to the end of 2022. At the beginning of the month, due to the low prices in the early stage, enterprises effectively destocked, and after the holiday, downstream began to replenish goods in stages, resulting in a significant increase in demand. At the same time, the recent low volume of ships arriving at ports has led to a decrease in market supply, and propane prices have begun to rise strongly. The market started to sharply decline in February, as propane prices rose to a high level and downstream follow-up was slow, leading to resistance. Coupled with the continuous decline in CP prices, it suppressed the mentality of business owners. The peak season for downstream chemical and combustion demand has passed, and some chemical products have been affected by high cost, resulting in reduced profits and a decrease in demand. The continuous decline in propane prices continued until the end of June. In the second half of the year, as prices fell to a low level, downstream buyers entered the market on dips, and the propane market entered a price increase trend earlier than in previous years. Market purchases and sales improved, while import prices stopped falling and rose, jointly helping to increase propane prices. Starting from September, the traditional peak season began. Due to the early depletion of favorable conditions in the early stage, downstream PDH units had a longer loss cycle, with low operating levels. Propane stabilized from rising, and then prices fluctuated within the 5200-5600 range due to supply and demand contradictions, continuing until the end of the year.

According to the monthly K-bar chart of Shandong propane in 2023, the increase in January was as high as 26.71%, followed by a gradual increase in decline. In the second half of the year, there was a significant rebound, and after the rebound, the increase gradually decreased. In the peak demand season in October, it even fell, and then began to stabilize.

From the trend of propane prices in the past three years, it can be seen that propane prices reached their lowest point in nearly three years in July 2023, and then began to rebound strongly. The upward trend appeared relatively early. It is reported that there was a significant increase in October 2012, with an increase of over 20% compared to September. Saudi Aramco’s CP in October announced that propane was $800/ton, an increase of $135/ton from the previous month; The onshore cost of propane is equivalent to 6175 yuan/ton, and the significant increase in CP directly drives the rise in domestic propane prices.

In 2023, CP prices showed a V-shaped trend, with the highest point appearing at 790 yuan/ton in February and the lowest point appearing at 400 yuan/ton in July. Prices stabilized from October onwards. From the trend of domestic propane, the price gradually fell in the first half of the year, increased first and then stabilized in the second half of the year. The lowest point of the price also appeared in July, indicating that the price of international imported propane has a direct impact on the domestic market price.

Market forecast: From a cost perspective, crude oil, as an indirect upstream of propane, showed a divergence in its trend in October 2023. Oil prices began to fluctuate and fall in late October, while propane fluctuated at a high level until the end of the year under the support of the peak combustion demand season. The price of crude oil still largely affects the trend of propane, and we closely monitor the international oil price trend in 2024. From the perspective of demand, as the main downstream PDH device, the industry has been operating at a loss since August 2023, with less than 70% of the industry’s overall production capacity. It is expected to add about 10 million tons of new production capacity in 2024. In the current competitive landscape of the industry, it is difficult for all PDH devices to be put into operation as scheduled next year. Moreover, it is not difficult to see from the propane demand market in 2023 that high prices suppress demand, and there is significant resistance to price increases, making high prices short-lived. Therefore, opportunities and challenges coexist in the propane market in 2024. Under the multiple influences of internal and external factors, it is expected that the center of gravity of propane prices may continue to decline compared to 2023. Taking the Shandong market as an example, it may fluctuate within the range of 6000-8000 yuan/ton in 2024, with a high-frequency fluctuation range of 6800-7300 yuan/ton and an annual average price around 7200 yuan/ton. It is expected that the market price will have a low point in the first quarter and a high point in the third quarter.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the mainstream market price of urea in Shandong Province fluctuated and fell in December. Urea prices dropped from 2601.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 2485 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 4.48%, and a year-on-year decrease of 8.87% at the end of the month.

On December 28th, the urea commodity index was 115.50, a decrease of 1.32 points from yesterday, a decrease of 24.18% from the highest point in the cycle of 152.33 points (2022-05-15), and an increase of 107.73% from the lowest point of 55.60 points on August 17th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to present)

From the supply side perspective, the mainstream market price of urea in Shandong dropped significantly in December.

Cost side: Upstream market drops significantly

The price of liquefied natural gas dropped significantly in December, from 6556 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 5510 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 15.95%, and a year-on-year decrease of 9.08% at the end of the month. The price of Yangquan anthracite (washed fast) rose first and then fell, dropping from 1110 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 960 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton. The price of liquid ammonia first rose and then fell, dropping from 3863.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 3623.33 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 6.21%. The highest point was 4056.67 yuan/ton on December 9th, with a maximum decrease of 10.68% within the month. At the end of the month, prices decreased by 21.63% year-on-year. Overall, the upstream market for urea has experienced a significant decline, with insufficient cost support.

On the demand side: The price of melamine fluctuates and rises

From the demand side, agricultural demand has weakened, industrial demand is average, and urea exports are currently not favorable. Agricultural sporadic fertilization. The operating rate of compound fertilizer plants is average, and their enthusiasm for purchasing urea is normal. Board and melamine enterprises generally start construction, with a focus on procurement for immediate needs. The price of melamine fluctuated and increased in December, rising from 7325 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 7475 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 2.05%. From a supply perspective, maintenance companies have resumed production, with a daily urea production of around 180000 tons, indicating sufficient supply.

In the future, the urea market may experience a slight fluctuation and decline in the first half of January. The prices of smokeless coal and liquefied natural gas have dropped significantly, with insufficient cost support. The daily production of urea is about 180000 tons, with sufficient supply. Agricultural demand is average, while industrial demand is predominant. In the future, urea may experience a slight fluctuation and decline.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the price of acetic acid in December first rose and then fell. As of December 29th, the price was 3200 yuan/ton, which was 125 yuan/ton lower than the beginning of the month’s acetic acid price of 3325 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.75%.

As of the end of the month, the price details of acetic acid market in various regions of China in December are as follows:

Region/ December 1st/ December 15th/ December 29th

South China region/ 3175 yuan/ton/. 3100 yuan/ton/. 3050 yuan/ton

North China region/ 3275 yuan/ton/ 3175 yuan/ton/ 3000 yuan/ton

Shandong region/ 3275 yuan/ton/ 3300 yuan/ton/ 3100 yuan/ton

Jiangsu region/ 3325 yuan/ton/ 3175 yuan/ton/ 3025 yuan/ton

Zhejiang region/ 3425 yuan/ton/ 3275 yuan/ton/ 3125 yuan/ton

In December, the acetic acid market showed a weak trend and prices fluctuated. At the beginning of the month, frequent malfunctions occurred in the acetic acid plant, causing acetic acid enterprises to operate at reduced loads, resulting in low inventory levels among manufacturers and a significant increase in acetic acid prices; Subsequently, the faulty equipment of the main factories in East China gradually recovered, and the market supply increased. At the same time, the northern region was affected by rainy and snowy weather, with limited transportation and accumulated inventory from manufacturers. There was a strong intention to discharge inventory, but downstream demand was weak. Coupled with the influence of buying up and not buying down sentiment, the market was clearly bearish, and the price of acetic acid was significantly reduced; In the latter half of the year, the failure of the acetic acid plant occurred again, and the operating rate of enterprises decreased. The price of acetic acid rebounded and increased, but due to limited demand, the price was lowered again at the end of the month.

The methanol market for raw materials fluctuates widely, and the price trend shows an “N” shape. As of December 29th, the average price in the domestic market was 2450 yuan/ton, which is a 2.20% decrease compared to the price of 2505 yuan/ton on December 1st. In the first half of the month, the expectation of methanol imports remained high, which suppressed market prices to a certain extent. Downstream purchases were mainly based on demand, and overall market price changes were limited. After the reduction of methanol prices, there was weak volatility; In the middle of the month, some regions were affected by heavy snowfall, resulting in limited transportation and slower delivery speeds. As a result, social inventory in consumer areas was low, leading to an increase in downstream delivery prices; In the latter half of the year, due to weak demand, methanol shipments were not smooth, and the market situation was weak and downward.

The downstream acetic anhydride market fluctuated and stabilized in December, with a price of 5912.50 yuan/ton on December 29th, an increase of 1.28% from the beginning of the month’s price of 5837.50 yuan/ton. During the month, acetic acid enterprises experienced frequent malfunctions, limited supply of acetic acid, and prices fluctuated. Due to cost constraints, acetic anhydride prices followed a broad consolidation trend. At the end of the month, acetic anhydride enterprises experienced equipment shutdowns, resulting in an increase in acetic anhydride prices. In December, acetic anhydride prices fluctuated and increased.

Analysts from Business Society believe that the operating rate of acetic acid enterprises is relatively high, manufacturers maintain active shipments, downstream purchasing sentiment is weak, demand for acetic acid is limited, sales pressure from acetic acid manufacturers is high, market transactions are insufficient, and the mentality of operators is weak. Under the supply-demand game, it is expected that the acetic acid market will be weak and consolidate in the future, and specific attention will be paid to downstream replenishment in the future.