This week, the lead market (4.8-4.15) fell first and then rose, with overall narrow fluctuations. The average price in the domestic market was 16415 yuan/ton last week, and 16515 yuan/ton this week, up 0.61%.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar indicates the range of fluctuations, and the overall market trend has been stable, moderate, and strong in recent times. The lead ingot market has had relatively small fluctuations in recent times.

This week, the lead ingot market continued to maintain a off-season trend, with the market mainly following the narrow fluctuations of the futures market. The trend in this cycle fell first and then rose. Limited fluctuations. From a supply perspective, the domestic lead concentrate market still has a tight supply. The native lead enterprise has recently undergone maintenance and has not resumed work as of now, resulting in a slightly tight supply of native lead. Most companies in the field of recycled lead resumed work within the month, and the production of recycled lead rebounded, offsetting the decline in production caused by the reduction in primary lead production. Overall, the production of lead ingots has remained stable in the near future. From April to May, it is a low season for downstream battery companies in terms of demand. Battery companies have started production relatively low, and their intention to purchase raw materials such as lead ingots is also weak. Overall, they will maintain a focus on replenishing essential inventory. Overall, the supply of lead ingots is relatively stable. In terms of demand, it is in a seasonal off-season. The recent changes in supply and demand have been limited, and the market is operating weakly, but overall fluctuations are not significant. It is expected that the market will continue to experience narrow fluctuations in the short term.

Industry data:

On April 14th, the base metal index was 1269 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 21.47% from the highest point in the cycle of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 97.66% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

On April 14th, the non-ferrous index was 1186 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 22.89% from the highest point in the cycle of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and an increase of 95.39% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 15th week of 2024 (4.8-4.12), there were a total of 11 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that showed a month on month increase in commodity prices. Among them, there were 2 commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 8% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The top three commodities with the highest increase were tin (5.64%), zinc (5.22%), and silver (4.32%). There are a total of 9 products with a month on month decline, and the top 3 products with the largest decline are dysprosium oxide (-1.96%), praseodymium metal (-1.89%), and praseodymium neodymium oxide (-1.28%). The average increase and decrease this week is 0.64%.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the monitoring of nickel prices by Business Society, nickel prices rose first and then fell this week. As of April 12th, the spot nickel quotation was 138516.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.58% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year decrease of 27.18%.

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of Business Society, nickel prices have fallen by 4 and risen by 7 in the past 12 weeks, with a slight increase in nickel prices recently.

Nickel industry chain

LME nickel inventory

As shown in the above figure, LME nickel inventory has slightly decreased recently, with 75252 tons of LME nickel inventory as of the weekend, a decrease of 2.46% compared to the beginning of the week.

On a macro level, the March inflation reported by the United States exceeded expectations, crushing market expectations for a rate cut in June, leading to an increase in risk aversion. At the same time, the strength of the US dollar further released bearish pressure. The weak inflation data of Chinese consumers has dampened the optimistic sentiment in the market. Due to the continued sluggish consumer demand in March and overall sufficient market supply, the national PPI decreased by 0.1% month on month, which has narrowed compared to the previous month; A year-on-year decrease of 2.8%, with a slight expansion in the decline. At the same time, the month on month CPI also showed a seasonal decline, with a slight decline in year-on-year growth, which to some extent brought uncertainty to the outlook for metal demand.

In terms of supply: During the Eid al Fitr holiday in Indonesia this week, some smelters will take turns. Due to scheduling factors at the small K port, the arrival time of externally mined nickel ore has been delayed. The approval process for Indonesian nickel mine RKAB is accelerating, and nickel supply is slowly recovering with the end of the rainy season. Inventory is rising, and prices are starting to decline, weakening cost support for nickel iron and stainless steel. The price of nickel sulfate has slightly decreased.

In terms of demand, stainless steel is experiencing a dynamic decline in cost support due to the decrease in nickel iron prices, leading to a seasonal decline in inventory. The current loss of stainless steel may lead to a reduction in production by steel mills in the future. In terms of new energy, the domestic flow of intermediate products in Indonesia has decreased, and the supply of nickel sulfate raw materials is tight. At the same time, the month on month growth of ternary production has driven the demand for nickel.

In summary, the US inflation data exceeded expectations, weakening market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut, and the US dollar index surged to a new high since November last year. The trend of non-ferrous metal market is under pressure. The pattern of nickel surplus remains unchanged, with no new demand growth points, and it is expected that nickel prices will mainly operate weakly in the short term.

According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, the price of soda ash was weak in early April. At the beginning of the month, the average market price was 1940 yuan/ton. On April 11th, the average market price was 1900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.06%, a decrease of 30.15% compared to the same period last year. Since the beginning of 2024, the price of soda ash has been showing a weak trend, with a decline of 31.9% from the beginning of the year to the present.

Domestic soda ash price trend:

From a supply perspective: This week, the operating rate of domestic soda ash decreased to 83.50%, resulting in a decrease in supply of goods and a decrease in inventory of some manufacturers. Recently, some soda ash plants have undergone maintenance, resulting in a slight relief in supply pressure. However, as of April 11, 2024, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers this week was 912500 tons, compared to the previous period’s data of 916800 tons, a decrease of 0.47%. Among them, there are 365500 tons of light inventory and 547000 tons of heavy inventory. Currently, it appears that soda ash enterprises are still experiencing inventory accumulation, which is suppressing the mentality of the soda ash market, and the price of soda ash may fluctuate.

From a demand perspective: the glass sector is operating weakly. At the beginning of April, the average market price was 18.55 yuan/ton. On April 11th, the average market price was 18.76 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.13%, a decrease of 7.95% compared to the same period last year. There is a replenishment plan for the downstream of the glass section, but the overall demand remains stable. Downstream quotations have stabilized recently, but transaction performance has been weak.

From the perspective of profit: With the decline of soda ash prices, production profit has significantly declined, at a low level in the past three years. As of April 5th, the production profit of domestic ammonia alkali enterprises was 336.16 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.9% month on month and a decrease of 68.55% year on year; The production profit of the joint production enterprise was 514.1 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.05% month on month and 72.2% year-on-year. Although the profit of soda ash has significantly declined, soda ash enterprises still have profits and there is currently no large-scale maintenance plan announced.

From a technical perspective, the price of soda ash may continue to fluctuate weakly in the market. Since December 31, 2023, the 7-day moving average has crossed the 30 day moving average and started a downward trend. Currently, the two moving averages continue to decline in the same direction. On April 7, 2024, it is estimated that the probability of a change in operating trend (i.e. crossing the 7-day moving average above the 30 day moving average) occurring within the next 7 days is 27.31%.

Soda ash is at a low level of one year, two years, and three years. According to the commodity analysis system, the average value of soda ash in the past year is 2407.78 yuan/ton, with a median value of 2495 yuan/ton, a minimum value of 1900 yuan/ton, and a maximum value of 3090 yuan/ton. The low price difference (compared to the lowest historical price difference in the past year) is 0 yuan/ton, and the top price difference (compared to the highest historical price difference in the past year) is -1190 yuan/ton.

Business Society analysts believe that according to the Business Society’s product analysis system, some soda ash units have undergone maintenance recently, resulting in a decline in production. However, the inventory of enterprises remains high, with downstream on-demand procurement being the main focus, and the purchasing sentiment is not positive, resulting in insufficient driving force for the overall price increase of soda ash. It is expected that the price of caustic soda will mainly fluctuate in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 10th, the average price of industrial grade lithium hydroxide in China was 106000.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.56% compared to the beginning of the month.

Since the beginning of April, the domestic industrial grade lithium hydroxide market has been operating with narrow fluctuations, and the atmosphere is slightly deadlocked. Holders are flexible in their quotations, mostly relying on observation. At the raw material level, the price of spodumene concentrate has slightly increased, and the upstream lithium carbonate market is relatively strong, which has boosted the lithium hydroxide market. Terminal demand has rebounded, and downstream positive electrode enterprises mainly purchase in demand. The overall market inquiry atmosphere is active, and actual transactions are average, with a strong wait-and-see attitude.

Upstream lithium carbonate: According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, on April 9th, the reference price of lithium carbonate industrial grade was 109000.00, an increase of 1.87% compared to April 1st (107000.00). Since April, the price of upstream industrial grade lithium carbonate has slightly increased, providing support for the lithium hydroxide market.

Analysts from Shengyishe Lithium Hydroxide believe that short-term cost support still exists, and downstream companies are still cautious in following up on high priced raw materials. The market has a wait-and-see mentality, and it is expected that the lithium hydroxide market may adjust its operation narrowly in the short term. The specific trend still needs to pay attention to market news guidance.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, after a cliff like decline in n-butanal in March, it fluctuated in early April and remained at a price of 8000-8100 yuan per ton. As of April 8th, the reference price for domestic n-butanal was 8050 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton from 8025 yuan/ton on April 1st.

In terms of raw material propylene, the release of new production capacity has had a slight impact on propylene prices, resulting in a slight decrease in prices.

From the perspective of downstream demand, the n-butanol market is oversupplied, with high inventory levels among manufacturers and a strong willingness to sell at discounted prices, resulting in weak prices.

According to data analysts from Business Society, the weak supply and demand have led to a weak rebound in the price of butyraldehyde, and it is expected that the price center of butyraldehyde will fluctuate in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 7th, the average price quoted by domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid enterprises was 3300.00 yuan/ton, which is basically unchanged compared to Monday (formic acid reference price of 3300.00 yuan).

From the monitoring chart of Business Society data, it can be seen that since April, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market has been operating steadily, with mainstream enterprise quotations ranging from 3100 to 3400 yuan/ton, and actual orders are mainly negotiated.

Price influencing factors:

From a cost perspective, since April, the domestic methanol market prices have been operating in a narrow range of fluctuations, while the raw material sulfuric acid prices have remained roughly stable, and the cost has been generally supported by the formic acid market. From the perspective of supply and demand, the downstream industry’s procurement demand for formic acid is mostly followed by rigid demand consumption, with orderly market trading and relatively stable supply and demand support. The focus of the quotation is mostly on stability.

Business Society formic acid analysts believe that in the near future, the atmosphere in the formic acid market has remained stable, and the short-term cost impact may be limited. Market transactions may continue to be mainly in demand, and it is expected that the formic acid market will remain stable in the short term. We need to observe market news guidance for specific trends.

The domestic titanium tetrachloride market is temporarily stable this week. According to the testing system of Shengyishe, as of April 2nd, the benchmark price of titanium tetrachloride in Shengyishe was 10675.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from the beginning of this month.

The price increase of terminal raw material titanium ore in the market has led to significant production cost pressure for high titanium slag enterprises. Overall, the high cost of titanium tetrachloride supports the market price to remain stable.

Business Society’s titanium tetrachloride analyst believes that the high cost side of titanium tetrachloride is under pressure, and downstream rigid demand procurement is the main focus. In the short term, market prices will remain stable.

Entering April, the rapid rebound in the price of liquid sodium acetate in the early stage slowed down and was replaced by a volatile trend. Due to the mutual balance between supply and demand, the stalemate in the supply and demand game of sodium acetate market has become prominent, followed by a volatile trend.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, liquid sodium acetate was priced at 828 yuan/ton on April 2, 2024, an increase of 167 yuan/ton compared to 812 yuan/ton on March 1.

From the perspective of raw materials, the overall price of soda ash in March was weak, and the downstream glass spot market continued to decline. The spot price of glass continues to be under pressure. The supply of glass has reached a historic high. Weakened support for the price of soda ash. Subsequently, it affects the price of sodium acetate.

From the demand side, the recent announcement of the winning bid for the procurement of sodium acetate for the 2024 PPP commissioned operation project of sewage treatment and recycling facilities in the main urban area of Huai’an City indicates that local sewage treatment demand still poses a favorable factor for the sodium acetate market.

Analysts from Shengyishe Sodium Acetate Data believe that based on a comprehensive analysis of supply and demand, sodium acetate raw materials are expected to hit bottom and rebound. Coupled with rising demand, the focus of the sodium acetate market will remain stable in the future, with narrow consolidation as the main trend.

In March, the market for butadiene rubber first rose and then fell, with an overall increase. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of March 31, the market price of butadiene rubber in East China was 13610 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.87% from the beginning of the month at 13230 yuan/ton, and a decrease of 2.44% from the high point of 13950 yuan/ton in the cycle.

In March, the market price of butadiene remained high, while the cost center of butadiene rubber remained high; Downstream tire production is at a high level, but there is resistance to high priced sources of goods. The demand for butadiene rubber is supported by the initial rigid demand, but weak in the later stage; Multiple devices have been shut down for maintenance one after another. In March, the overall production of butadiene rubber decreased, and the supply of butadiene rubber tightened compared to the previous period; Driven by comprehensive factors, the factory prices of enterprises first increased and then decreased, and the market situation of butadiene rubber first rose and then fell. As of March 31st, the mainstream price of butadiene rubber market in East China is 13450-13700 yuan/ton.

In March, the domestic production of butadiene rubber gradually decreased from 6.4% at the beginning of the month to around 5.4% at the end of the month, a significant decrease compared to February.

In March, the price of butadiene remained high, and there is still strong support for the cost of butadiene rubber. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of March 31st, the price of butadiene was 11525 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.88% from 11095 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

Demand side: Downstream tire production is temporarily stable, providing certain support for butadiene rubber. It is understood that as of late March, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was around 790%; The operating load of all steel tires in tire enterprises in Shandong region is close to 70%; But in the middle of the month, the price of butadiene styrene rubber increased significantly, and downstream consumers resisted the high price, resulting in a slowdown in procurement efforts.

Market forecast: Business Society analysts believe that the price of raw material butadiene is still at a high level, and the cost support for butadiene rubber is strong; While some devices are being shut down and reduced in load, there are still other maintenance plans in the later stage, and the expectation of starting production of butadiene rubber is further reduced; The cost and commencement of production support the market for butadiene rubber. However, the current downstream resistance to the high priced supply of butadiene rubber has slowed down, putting pressure on the butadiene rubber market. Overall, the current butadiene rubber market is expected to maintain a high consolidation level in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by Business Society, as of March 27th, the average price of industrial grade premium cyclohexane in China was 7200 yuan/ton. In March, the price range of cyclohexane was the main trend. In March, the supply side of the cyclohexane market was tight, inventory remained low, production was limited, downstream demand increased, and mainstream cyclohexane factory prices were the main trend.

2、 Market analysis

In March, the domestic cyclohexane market prices were dominated by tight inventory from manufacturers and a positive attitude towards downstream procurement. The overall market transaction atmosphere was still good, with holders holding up prices. In early March, the upstream pure benzene price fluctuated and rose. Due to the continuous increase in crude oil prices, pure benzene prices surged and manufacturers continued to quote higher prices. The negotiation center was operating at a high level, and the increase in upstream raw materials provided positive support for the cost side of cyclohexane. In late March, crude oil prices returned to stability and were weak overall. After digesting the previous gains, upstream raw material prices also fluctuated and decreased. As of March 27th, the domestic pure benzene price was in the stage of consolidation at 8353-8550 yuan/ton.

In terms of supply, the overall market operating rate of cyclohexane remained stable in March, with increasing downstream demand. Due to limited production of cyclohexane, inventory continued to operate at a low level, resulting in tight supply of spot goods and normal consumption of inventory. As a result, the overall market supply was tight.

In terms of cost: In March, upstream pure benzene fluctuated and the overall market showed a downward trend, mainly due to the influence of crude oil prices. In March, pure benzene prices were in a weak consolidation stage. Starting from mid March, crude oil prices rose, and pure benzene had some support on the cost side. Cyclohexane provided strong support on the cost side, and the price continued to rise, showing a strong trend. In late March, crude oil prices returned to stability, and pure benzene prices were in a weak consolidation stage. Cyclohexane prices showed a weak and strong trend.

In terms of demand: Currently, the downstream demand for cyclohexane is relatively optimistic, and downstream chemical fiber enterprises have a positive purchasing atmosphere. The focus of negotiations is on high-level operations, with small orders from contract customers as the main focus, limited new orders, and a stable downstream operating rate. The spot supply is also stable.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society’s cyclohexane analyst believes that the current downstream market procurement atmosphere is positive, with small orders in the solvent market following suit, and upstream cost support being average. The trend is fluctuating and consolidating, and inventory is currently operating at a low level. It is expected that the cyclohexane market will maintain its previous trend in the short term, with mainstream prices ranging from 7200 to 7300 yuan/ton.