According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of acetic acid has remained stable recently. On February 7th, the average market price of acetic acid was 330 yuan/ton, which is the same as the price of 3300 yuan/ton on February 1st, with a month on month increase of 4.76%.

Recently, the acetic acid market has remained stable. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, downstream companies are gradually entering a state of vacation, with weakened purchasing enthusiasm and a weak market trading atmosphere. At the same time, the northern regions of Central China are affected by weather, logistics transportation is limited, factory shipments are poor, manufacturers are hesitant, and acetic acid quotations remain stable and operate on a wait-and-see basis. As of February 7th, the market prices of acetic acid in various regions are as follows:

Region/ February 7th/ February 7th/ Rise and fall

South China region/ 3125 yuan/ton/ 3125 yuan/ton/ 0

North China region/ 3275 yuan/ton/ 3250 yuan/ton/ -25

Shandong region/ 3300 yuan/ton/ 3300 yuan/ton/ 0

Jiangsu region/ 3125 yuan/ton/ 3050 yuan/ton/ -75

Zhejiang region/ 3225 yuan/ton/ 3150 yuan/ton/ -75

The upstream raw material methanol market is relatively strong and rising. On February 7th, the average price in the domestic market was 2640.00 yuan/ton, an overall increase of 3.06% compared to the price of 2561.67 yuan/ton on February 1st. Domestic methanol plants are gradually recovering, and production enterprises still face supply pressure, with some enterprises still having inventory demand before the holiday. Affected by rainy and snowy weather, it has placed a burden on the unloading speed. At the same time, the transportation cost from the northwest production area to the sales area market has increased, leading to a significant increase in domestic methanol prices.

The downstream acetic anhydride market remains stable and watchful. On February 7th, the ex factory price of acetic anhydride was 5875 yuan/ton, which is unchanged from the price of 5875 yuan/ton on February 1st. As the Spring Festival approaches, some acetic anhydride enterprises have suspended production, resulting in a decrease in acetic anhydride supply, stable raw material acetic acid prices, and weak cost support. At the same time, downstream acetic anhydride enterprises have started production at a low level, resulting in poor demand for acetic anhydride. The market trading atmosphere is light, and the price of acetic anhydride is operating steadily.

In the future market forecast, the acetic acid analyst from Business Society believes that as the Spring Festival approaches, the market is mostly in a state of delisting and vacation. Acetic acid companies have stable quotations, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm is average. The trading atmosphere on the market is weak, and it is expected that the short-term acetic acid market will remain stable and operate on a wait-and-see basis. In the future, attention will be paid to the situation of downstream replenishment after the holiday.

According to the commodity market analysis system, as of February 5th, the average price of domestic transparent grade premium PMMA was 15666.67 yuan/ton. This week, PMMA prices have remained stable, with limited price fluctuations compared to the same period last week. The overall market supply and demand are balanced, and there is limited room for upward movement.

This week, the domestic market for transparent grade premium PMMA products has been operating steadily, with no significant price changes compared to the same period last week. The downstream procurement atmosphere is flat, with on-demand procurement being the main focus and overall market demand being insufficient. Currently, the mainstream manufacturer’s quotation range is still around 15500 yuan/ton. The operating rate is stable, and the overall market supply and demand is balanced. Downstream orders are mainly small, with weak cost support and unclear downstream hoarding willingness, Enterprise quotation: Shanghai Hongqi Plasticization Technology Co., Ltd. 14800 yuan/ton.

Rubber Index: On February 4th, the rubber index was 668 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 36.98% from the highest point in the cycle of 1060 points (2012-03-14), and an increase of 26.52% from the lowest point of 528 points on April 6th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

Business Society PMMA analysts believe that in the short term, the PMMA market will mainly operate steadily, with mainstream prices maintaining 15500 yuan/ton.

According to the data from the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as the Spring Festival approaches, the hydrogen peroxide market remains stable, with prices ranging from 750 to 800 yuan/ton.

As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, the hydrogen peroxide market continues to be weak and stable

Since February, the domestic hydrogen peroxide market has gradually stabilized, and the stocking market for terminal printing and paper manufacturers has come to an end. The market purchasing and sales are sluggish, and there is currently no fluctuation in the hydrogen peroxide market. As of February 4th, the mainstream price in Shandong region is around 780 yuan/ton, which is stable, while the mainstream price in Anhui region is 830 yuan/ton, which is generally stable.

Business Society Chemical Analyst believes that after the holiday, the demand for hydrogen peroxide terminals has improved, and the hydrogen peroxide market is expected to see an upward trend in the future.

Domestic price trend:

From the trend chart, it can be seen that the price of para xylene has slightly increased this week. As of the weekend, the domestic ex factory price of para xylene was 8700 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.0% from the beginning of the week’s price of 8600 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year increase of 2.18%.

The domestic supply of xylene is relatively normal, with a domestic PX operating rate of over 80%. A 750000 ton unit of Pengzhou Petrochemical has restarted, but some units are still undergoing maintenance, and spot supply is normal. This week, the international crude oil price trend has declined, and PX external prices have slightly decreased. As of the 1st, the closing price in Asia is 995-997 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 1020-1022 US dollars/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX plants in Asia has remained high. Overall, the operating rate of xylene plants in the Asian region is nearly 80%. The supply of PX goods in the Asian region is normal. Last week, crude oil prices increased significantly, and the domestic xylene market prices slightly increased.

Recently, the international crude oil price trend has fallen. As of the 1st, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $73.82 per barrel, while the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $78.70 per barrel. The crude oil market has declined this week, partly due to concerns about future demand, and the news is bearish for the crude oil market. On the other hand, US crude oil inventories increased by 1.2 million barrels to 4219.1 million barrels, leading to an increase in US crude oil inventories and a decline in oil prices; Overall, crude oil prices are still in a wide range of fluctuations, with slight adjustments in the domestic market price of xylene.

The domestic PTA spot market is on the rise, with an average price of 6020 yuan/ton in the East China market as of the weekend, an increase of 0.22% from the price of 6007 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. From the recent changes in PTA’s own equipment, the industry’s operating rate has slightly decreased to around 82%, but there is still pressure from sufficient supply of goods. The downstream polyester production load is 81%, and the polyester filament market is cautious and cautious, with terminal orders gradually becoming lighter. Recently, the production of autumn and winter fabrics for domestic sales has gradually come to an end, and orders for spring and summer fabrics have been issued one after another. However, there is sufficient supply of goods, and there are many factories selling inventory at low prices. Weaving factories are under increasing pressure to lose money, and the comprehensive operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving continues to decline to around 21%. The demand for downstream terminals has not improved, and the increase in PX market is limited due to this impact.

Chen Ling, an analyst at Business Society PX, believes that there is not much change in the domestic PX supply. The upstream crude oil market is a long short game, and overall, crude oil prices remain mainly fluctuating in the range. There is not much change in the operation of downstream PTA maintenance equipment in the early stage, but with the gradual holiday of the textile industry, the downstream polyester operation load has decreased, and terminal demand has weakened. It is expected that the price trend of the xylene market will remain stable in the later stage.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the mainstream market price of urea in Shandong Province fluctuated and fell in January: urea prices dropped from 2485 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 2431.67 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 2.15%, and a year-on-year decrease of 12.69% at the end of the month.

On January 31, the urea commodity index was 113.10, an increase of 0.54 points from yesterday, a decrease of 25.75% from the highest point in the cycle of 152.33 points (2022-05-15), and an increase of 103.42% from the lowest point of 55.60 points on August 17, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to present)

From the supply side perspective, the mainstream ex factory price of urea in Shandong slightly decreased in January.

Cost side: Upstream market drops significantly

Price details of Yangquan anthracite (washing medium block) in January

January 1st, January 15th, January 31st

Yangquan 960 yuan/ton 960 yuan/ton 960 yuan/ton

From a cost perspective: After New Year’s Day, there are many heavy vehicles in the market, limited downstream delivery capacity, poor market trading, and a strong bearish sentiment. Environmental protection control has been strengthened in some regions, industrial demand has weakened, and liquid factories have lowered prices to digest inventory. The price of liquefied natural gas fluctuated widely in January, dropping from 5510 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 5490 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 0.36%. The lowest point was 4452 yuan/ton on January 19th, with a maximum amplitude of 26.82% during the month. The price at the end of the month decreased by 10.06% year-on-year. The price of Yangquan anthracite (washed fast) has stabilized at a low level, with a price of around 960 yuan/ton. The price of liquid ammonia has dropped significantly, from 3623.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 3236.67 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 10.67%, and a year-on-year decrease of 23.54% at the end of the month. Overall, the upstream market for urea has experienced a significant decline, with insufficient cost support.

Demand side: Low price consolidation of melamine

From the demand side, agricultural demand has weakened, industrial demand is average, and urea exports are currently not favorable. Agricultural sporadic fertilization. The operating rate of compound fertilizer plants is average, and their enthusiasm for purchasing urea is normal. Board and melamine enterprises generally start construction, with a focus on procurement for immediate needs. In January, the price of melamine stabilized at a low level, with a price of 7475 yuan/ton. From a supply perspective, maintenance companies have resumed production, with a daily urea production of around 160000 tons and average supply.

In the future, the urea market may experience a slight fluctuation and decline in mid to early February. The price of liquefied natural gas has dropped significantly, with insufficient cost support. The daily production of urea is about 160000 tons, and the supply is average. Agricultural demand is currently not favorable, with industrial demand being the main focus. In the future, urea may experience a slight fluctuation and decline.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the stearic acid market showed a trend of first falling and then rising this month. The domestic average price of stearic acid was 8220 yuan/ton on January 1, and 17675 yuan/ton on January 31, with a price increase of 1.82% during the period.

Cause analysis

Cost side: After New Year’s Day, the palm oil market has declined one after another, and after the decline, it has rebounded, mainly oscillating upwards. As the Spring Festival approaches, the stocking market for terminal catering enterprises has started, with demand supporting, and the palm oil market continues to rise. Malaysian palm oil in the external market is currently in a period of reduced production, with bullish support and a significant increase in palm oil prices.

Demand side: Downstream PVC spot market prices first fell and then rose, and overall prices fell. In the first half of this month, the spot market price of PVC fell. The enthusiasm for market inquiries is average, and market transactions are light. In the middle of the month, the trading situation was average. In the latter half of the month, the spot market stopped falling and rose, and the futures market experienced four consecutive rises, driving confidence in the spot market and improving the trading atmosphere. PVC maintenance has gradually resumed, and the operating rate has increased compared to December. In mid to early January, the load rate of the domestic semi steel tire industry was around 7.8 floors, while the load rate of the full steel tire industry was around 6.2 floors. But as the Spring Festival approaches, some steel tire companies will start their holidays in late January, but some steel tire companies are still operating at high loads to prepare for post holiday shipments.

Future Market Forecast

This month, the stearic acid market showed a trend of first falling and then rising. After the price of raw palm fell, it rebounded and began to fluctuate and rise. Therefore, it has provided favorable support for the cost of stearic acid. Although the downstream device load has increased compared to December, the on-site inventory is loose, and the market purchases stearic acid spot on demand. Overall, it is expected that the market for stearic acid will mainly fluctuate in the later stage.

According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, the price of caustic soda remained stable this week, with the average market price in Shandong region from the beginning of the week to the weekend at 3300 yuan/ton. According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 4th week of 2024 (1.22-1.26), there was one commodity that rose, three commodities that fell, and three commodities that rose or fell to zero in the chlor alkali industry price list. The main rising commodities include PVC (0.83%); The main commodities falling are: light soda ash (-2.46%), flake alkali (-1.00%), and baking soda (-0.07%). The average increase and decrease this week is -0.39%.

Upstream caustic soda

According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, the price of caustic soda has remained stable this week, with an average market price of 784 yuan/ton from the beginning of the week to the weekend. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is currently stable, with a mainstream market price of around 730-800 yuan/ton for 32% ion exchange membrane caustic soda. The price of caustic soda in Jiangsu region is currently stable, with a mainstream market price of around 800-860 yuan/ton for 32% ion exchange membrane caustic soda.

Business Society analysts believe that the price of caustic soda has stabilized this week, and downstream purchases are more on demand. The supply-demand game, taking into account the short-term or sustained consolidation of caustic soda prices, depends on downstream market demand.

Baking soda, also known as sodium bicarbonate, is an inorganic salt with small white crystals. It is a white crystalline powder, odorless, and easily soluble in water. It slowly decomposes in humid or hot air, producing carbon dioxide, and completely decomposes when heated to 270 ° C. When exposed to acid, it strongly decomposes and produces carbon dioxide, which is commonly used in fermentation powders. Its aqueous solution is weakly alkaline and does not cause pollution to daily water. The powder can also be used as a natural lubricating powder, as well as a detergent or blending agent, easily removing oil stains on stainless steel items and stains on clothing. It has a wide range of uses.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the overall price of baking soda has increased in 2023. The average market price at the beginning of the year was 2530 yuan/ton, and the average market price at the end of the year was 2688 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 6.25%.

Take a look at the monthly K-bar chart of baking soda. From the chart, it can be seen that baking soda will rise for 4 months and fall for 8 months in 2023.

Take a look at the annual price comparison chart of baking soda. From the chart, it can be seen that the overall price of baking soda in 2023 has been operating at a median level recently (2021-2023).

Let’s take a look at the specific price trend. From the beginning of the year to early June, prices have been declining, from early June to late August, prices have been consolidating, from late August to early October, prices have risen, prices have fallen after the National Day holiday, from October 7th to December 10th, prices have been in an upward trend, and then until the end of the year, prices have been consolidating.

From the beginning of the year to early June, prices have been continuously declining, mainly due to the weak operation of upstream soda ash prices, and the overall trading atmosphere is average. Downstream demand for soda ash is average, and more purchases are still made on demand, with a strong wait-and-see attitude. The supply and demand game between upstream and downstream has led market participants to have a strong bearish attitude towards the future. Downstream industries such as pharmaceuticals, textiles, and food have a high demand for baking soda through on-demand procurement, resulting in weak baking soda prices. From early June to late August, prices have been showing a consolidation trend, mainly due to the consolidation of upstream soda ash prices. Some soda ash enterprises have undergone maintenance, and the supply of soda ash is slightly tight. The overall trading atmosphere is still good, with downstream replenishment of soda ash and supply-demand competition. It is expected that the strong operation of soda ash prices will be the main trend in the later stage. Downstream industries such as pharmaceuticals, textiles, and food have a high demand for baking soda through on-demand procurement, resulting in a consolidation of baking soda prices.

From late August to early October, prices have risen, and the price of baking soda has been running strong recently. On the one hand, baking soda manufacturers have been experiencing tight supply recently, and on the other hand, the upstream raw material of baking soda, soda ash, has been experiencing a strong upward trend recently. Finally, downstream baking soda has seen good demand in areas such as medicine, textiles, and food. From October 7th to December 10th, prices have been on an upward trend. The upstream raw material, soda ash, has recently shown a strong market trend, while the downstream demand for baking soda, including pharmaceuticals, textiles, and food, has been slightly better than in the previous period. The price of baking soda is mainly improving. From December 10th to the end of the year, the price of baking soda stabilized, and the market for raw materials such as soda ash has recently fluctuated. Downstream pharmaceutical, textile, and food industries such as baking soda have been mainly purchased on demand.

How will the price of baking soda develop in 2024, despite the weak fluctuations in baking soda prices in 2023?

In terms of supply: In terms of changes in the production capacity and operating rate of baking soda in China, the production capacity and output of baking soda in the downstream food, industry, and feed industries continue to expand against the backdrop of continuous growth in demand.

In terms of demand: In terms of the price trend of baking soda in China, the price of baking soda is greatly affected by fluctuations in the prices of upstream main raw materials such as soda ash. The supply side will maintain a relaxed situation, and the production of soda ash will continue to increase in 2024. The inventory will also exceed 3 million tons or about 4 million tons. Glass has a rigid demand for soda ash, and the price in the second half of the year may be better than that in the first half of the year.

In terms of import and export: Domestic baking soda production capacity accounts for about 40% of global production capacity, and the export volume is significantly higher than the import volume. In terms of the overall changes in the import and export volume of baking soda in China, with the continuous growth of domestic demand for high-end baking soda, the import volume continues to grow. Although there is still a significant gap compared to exports, the main reason is that with the tightening of domestic environmental policies, desulfurization and denitrification have increased the amount of baking soda used, resulting in a continuous increase in overall import demand.

Business Society analysts believe that the supply of baking soda continues to expand, and downstream soda ash will still have 2.6 million new production capacity in 2024, indicating a continued demand for baking soda. The economy is recovering, and downstream trade unions for baking soda have resumed, which may increase demand for baking soda. Now that the Spring Festival is approaching and downstream demand for baking soda is nearing its end, the price of baking soda has not fluctuated much. After the year, as the weather warms up, the price of baking soda will increase. Overall, it is expected that the price of baking soda will be better in the second half of 2023 than in the first half, depending on downstream market demand.

Zinc prices have risen continuously this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of January 26th, the zinc price was 21426 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.63% compared to January 19th, when the zinc price was 20876 yuan/ton; Compared to January 1st, the zinc price of 21588 yuan/ton decreased by 0.75%. Macro positive factors combined with a decrease in inventory have led to a continuous increase in zinc prices this week.

Macro positive

Macroeconomic Regulation Helps Economic Recovery: The State Council has made it clear to increase the entry of medium and long-term funds into the market, and to focus on stabilizing the market and confidence! The Premier of the State Council emphasized the need to solidly carry out various tasks related to economic and social development this year. To better leverage the role of macroeconomic regulation, proactive fiscal policies should be moderately strengthened, improved in quality and efficiency, prudent monetary policies should be flexible, moderate, precise and effective, enhance the consistency of macroeconomic policy orientation, and effectively consolidate and enhance the positive trend of economic recovery. China has increased its macroeconomic regulation efforts to help the domestic economy recover, which is beneficial for the non-ferrous sector and has led to a rise in non-ferrous metals. Positive factors have stimulated a continuous increase in zinc prices this week.

Overseas macroeconomic benefits: Markit manufacturing PMI in the United States expanded in January, the US dollar index quickly fell, concerns about recession in the Eurozone eased, and manufacturing rebounded beyond expectations in January. The initial real GDP growth in the fourth quarter of the United States was 3.3% higher than expected, while the European economy rebounded beyond expectations. The macroeconomic situation was positive, providing support for the rise of the non-ferrous sector and increasing support for the rise in zinc prices.

Weakened supply

The processing fee for zinc concentrate has continued to decline, reaching a new low since October 2022; The tight supply situation at the mining end of the zinc market continues, and as the Spring Festival approaches, smelters are still in the stage of reserving raw materials in the first quarter, and their procurement is relatively active. The tight mining situation provides cost support for zinc prices. The profits of smelters are in an inverted state, and some smelters have experienced maintenance and production reduction. Expected decrease in zinc supply in the market.

Since January, LME zinc inventory has steadily decreased. On January 25th, LME zinc inventory decreased by 2100 tons, and LME zinc inventory reached a new low of 193475 tons in two months. This week, the inventory of Shanghai zinc in the Shanghai futures market decreased again. On January 26th, the inventory of Shanghai zinc in futures was 3821 tons, a decrease of 1354 tons this week. The total inventory of Shanghai zinc this week was 22647 tons, a slight increase of 45 tons. The overall LME zinc inventory and Shanghai zinc inventory are both at a low level, indicating insufficient supply in the zinc market.

Decreased demand

As the year-end approaches, downstream sectors have gradually entered a holiday period. Last week, the operating rate of galvanized sectors declined significantly, with a weekly operating rate decrease of 2.76%; Most die-casting zinc alloy companies will start reducing production lines and taking maintenance breaks in late January; Last week, the orders of various downstream sectors in the zinc oxide sector increased and decreased, and the overall operating rate remained weak. This week, as zinc oxide enterprises continued to holiday, the operating rate of enterprises continued to decline. As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream production has significantly declined, downstream consumption is weak, and zinc prices are bearish.

Future Market Forecast

According to data analysts from Business Society, there have been continuous macroeconomic benefits both domestically and internationally in recent times, and the expectation of economic recovery is accelerating. Coupled with weak supply and demand in the zinc market, the support for the recent rise in the zinc market is increasing. However, due to poor demand, the upward space for zinc prices is limited, and zinc prices may fluctuate and consolidate in the future.

Recent price trends of isooctanol

According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, cost support has increased, and downstream demand is average. This week, the price of isooctanol in the Shandong region has fluctuated and fallen. This week, the average price of isooctanol in the mainstream market in Shandong fell from 12925 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 12900 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.19%. Weekend prices increased by 28.57% year-on-year.

Upstream support increases, downstream demand weakens

From the supply side perspective, the mainstream manufacturers of isooctanol in Shandong have seen a slight decline in their quotations this week, with average inventory levels.

From the upstream raw material market of isooctanol, the propylene market saw a slight increase this week, with prices rising from 6733.25 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 6863.25 yuan/ton over the weekend, an increase of 1.93%, and a year-on-year decrease of 9.22% over the weekend. Part of the propylene plants in Shandong region have shut down, and with a favorable supply side, the market atmosphere has improved. Downstream players have actively entered the market, and on-site inventory has decreased to a low level. The focus of the propylene market continues to shift upwards.

From the downstream market situation of isooctanol, the DOP market price fluctuated and fell this week. The DOP price dropped from 12080 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 12030 yuan/ton on the weekend, an increase of 0.41%, and the weekend price increased by 18.87% year-on-year. The operating rate of downstream DOP enterprises is temporarily stable, and downstream procurement of isooctanol is generally active, with a focus on on-demand procurement.

Future prospects

In late January, the market for isooctanol in Shandong may experience slight fluctuations and gains. The upstream propylene market has strong upward momentum and good cost support. Downstream DOP demand is good, and there is an upward trend in the downstream market. Business Society Isooctanol analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic Isooctanol market may experience slight fluctuations and increases due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.