Zinc prices have fluctuated downward this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 30th, the zinc price was 22490 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 7.2% compared to the zinc price of 24236 yuan/ton on July 1st.

Macro dynamics

The People’s Bank of China conducted its second MLF operation this month, cutting interest rates by 20 basis points beyond expectations. Analysis suggests that the increase in MLF operations this time has released a signal of easing, meeting the medium and long-term funding needs of financial institutions. The US GDP in the second quarter exceeded expectations, with a month on month growth of 2.8%. The core PCE price index fell to 2.9% month on month, still higher than expected. The implementation of the Fair Competition Review Regulations in August is expected to result in an increase in tax costs.

The inventory of zinc ingots in the Shanghai futures market decreased by 16975 tons compared to the beginning of the month

According to data released by the Shanghai Futures Exchange, as of July 29th, the zinc inventory level was 64863 tons, and as of July 1st, the zinc inventory level was 81838 tons, a decrease of 16975 tons from the beginning of the month.

The zinc ingot inventory in the London LME futures market decreased by 21300 tons compared to the beginning of the month

According to data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME), as of July 29th, the inventory level of London zinc was 240550 tons. The LME market’s zinc ingot inventory continued to decline slightly, with a decrease of 21300 tons from the beginning of the month.

Raw material side message

The Huoshaoyun lead-zinc mine in Xinjiang is located in the central part of the Karakoram Mountains, with characteristics such as large deposit scale, high ore grade, and simple mining and processing technology. The total investment of the Xinjiang Huoshaoyun Lead Zinc Mine project is 26.17 billion yuan, including 12.221 billion yuan for mining engineering, 5.433 billion yuan for long-distance slurry transportation pipeline engineering, and 8.516 billion yuan for smelting engineering. At present, the mine has completed a total of 600000 cubic meters of stripping and extracted 60000 tons of ore.

Future forecast

Business Society data analysts believe that the tight supply situation in the mining sector in July has not yet reversed, and the uncertainty overseas has intensified the overall pessimistic expectations of the market. Market risk appetite has sharply declined, suppressing zinc prices. There have been recent news of overseas market resumption of production, but overall market consumption is currently poor. Domestic production remains sluggish, with demand pulling down the center of zinc prices. The fundamentals are mixed with long and short positions, and downstream purchases are made at low prices, resulting in significant destocking. Affected by external factors, the rebound ability of Shanghai zinc is insufficient, but with the support of the expected peak season of gold, silver, and silver, the short-term zinc price market is expected to maintain a volatile pattern.

Recently (7.17-7.29), the market price of Shunding rubber has slightly declined. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of July 29, the market price of Shunding rubber in East China was 15070 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.59% from 15160 yuan/ton on July 17. The price of raw material butadiene has fallen slightly from a high level; Shunding rubber production continues to remain low; Downstream tire production slightly decreased, overall inquiries were cautious, and there was slight resistance to high priced sources. Shunding rubber futures fell slightly from their high levels, and market trading remained flat.

Recently (7.17-7.29), the price of butadiene has fallen from a high level, and the cost center of butadiene rubber has slightly decreased, but overall there is still support. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 29th, the price of butadiene was 12900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.71% from 13125 yuan/ton on July 17th.

Recently (7.17-7.29), the construction of domestic butadiene rubber plants has continued to maintain a low level. As of July 26, the construction of domestic butadiene rubber plants is around 5.60%.

Demand side: Downstream tire production has slightly decreased, and demand is supported by weak demand in the butadiene rubber market. Downstream inquiries are resistant to high priced sources of goods. As of July 24th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 7.9%; The operating load of all steel tires in tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 5.4%.

Market forecast: From a fundamental perspective, analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the high price of raw material butadiene will fall, and there is still support for a slight decrease in the cost center of butadiene rubber; Shunding rubber production remains at a low level and the market supply is tight; Recently, downstream tire companies have seen a slight decrease in production and are cautious about purchasing Shunding rubber. Overall, the Shunding rubber market is expected to consolidate weakly in the short term.

1、 Price trend

Taking the sulfuric acid method gold red stone titanium dioxide with a large volume of goods in the domestic market as an example, according to data monitoring by Business Society, the domestic titanium dioxide market has remained stable this week, with an average price of 15783.33 yuan/ton.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic titanium dioxide market remained stable this week. This week, the price of raw material titanium concentrate has risen, and the price of sulfuric acid has remained strong at a high level. The production cost pressure of titanium dioxide is still significant due to the influence of raw materials. This week, Longqi implemented preferential policies for distributors, resulting in an increase in pending orders for the company. Most manufacturers prioritize stable pricing, with some scarce brand sources experiencing slight price increases. As of now, the domestic quotation for sulfuric acid based pyrite type titanium dioxide is mostly between 15300-16200 yuan/ton; The quotation for rutile titanium dioxide is around 14500-15000 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price is negotiable.

In terms of titanium concentrate, the market price of titanium concentrate in the Panxi region has remained strong and upward. At present, the spot market is still tight, and the price of titanium ore is running at a high level. Downstream titanium dioxide enterprises are generally in the market, and they are more cautious about titanium concentrate, with a focus on urgent needs and cautious procurement. As of now, the price of 38-42 grade titanium ore without tax is around 1600-1630 yuan/ton, the price of 46 grade 10 titanium concentrate without tax is around 2250-2280 yuan/ton, and the price of 47 grade 20 titanium concentrate is around 2500-2630 yuan/ton. In the short term, the price of Panxi titanium concentrate continues to operate at a high level, and the specific transaction price will be discussed on a case by case basis.

3、 Future forecast

The titanium dioxide analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the domestic titanium dioxide market remained stable this week, with some brands experiencing price increases. The overall market shipment situation is still acceptable. This week, the price of titanium concentrate has risen, the price of sulfuric acid remains high and firm, and the cost pressure of titanium dioxide is significant. In the short term, the market is mainly stable, and the actual transaction price is negotiable.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, domestic polyester filament prices fluctuated narrowly from July 15th to 21st. Currently, mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang offer POY (150D/48F) at 8030 yuan/ton, polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) at 9300-9500 yuan/ton, and polyester FDY (150D/96F) at 8546 yuan/ton. During the week, the cost support of the polyester filament market gradually weakened, and there was a clear wait-and-see attitude in the market. The demand side was in the off-season, with average trading and stable quotes from polyester filament factories.

As of the close of July 18th in the crude oil market, the price of light crude oil futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed at $82.82 per barrel, a decrease of 0.04%; The London Brent crude oil futures price for September delivery closed at $85.11 per barrel, an increase of 0.04%.

In terms of PTA, PTA prices have fallen this week, and currently the mainstream PTA quotation is around 5800-5900 yuan/ton for self pickup. As the operating rate rebounds and PTA fundamentals decline, it is expected that prices will remain volatile next week.

In terms of ethylene glycol, the price of ethylene glycol fluctuated this week, and the mainstream quotation is currently around 4600-4700 yuan. At present, the fundamentals of the ethylene glycol market are good, and prices may be strong in the future.

In terms of polyester filament, currently, the market generally adopts a wait-and-see attitude, and the industry’s procurement activities appear to be more cautious, resulting in a slight decrease in downstream demand and terminal production load while maintaining stability. This trend has exacerbated the inventory backlog problem of major polyester filament producers, while the weak performance of the raw material market has also created additional pressure.

Business analysts believe that PTA fundamentals are weakening. The scorching summer heat has led to an increase in production cuts and a decrease in demand for polyester filament, which has significantly weakened the market demand for polyester filament. In the short term, although mainstream polyester fiber manufacturers still adhere to a high price stance and show a strong willingness to maintain prices, all parties have adopted a more cautious wait-and-see attitude in the price game with downstream markets. Based on this, it is expected that the price of polyester filament will fluctuate within a relatively stable range in the future, and the market trend will show a characteristic of oscillating operation.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from July 15th to 19th, the average price of BDO in China fell from 9042 yuan/ton to 9000 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.47% during the period and a year-on-year decline of 18.92%. The domestic BDO market is weak and deadlocked, approaching the settlement cycle, with a mainly cautious and wait-and-see attitude. Follow up on urgent orders downstream of the terminal, the game between supply and demand continues, and the market trading center is deadlocked.

On the supply side and in terms of equipment: The overall increase in market supply is limited, but the supply side support is still acceptable, and the supplier’s intention to maintain prices continues. The supply side of BDO is affected by favorable factors.

On the cost side, raw material calcium carbide: the operating rate has decreased narrowly, and overall supply has remained stable. However, the export of downstream maintenance and supporting calcium carbide has intensified market observation, and calcium carbide enterprises are showing high enthusiasm for raising prices. Raw material methanol: The methanol market is experiencing weak consolidation. As of 3:00 pm on July 19th, the domestic methanol Taicang price is 2500 yuan/ton. The cost impact of BDO is mixed.

On the demand side, the main downstream PTMEG and GBL/NMP industries have experienced a decline in production, and the utilization rate of other downstream production capacity is average, continuing to follow the pace of rigid demand. The transmission of industrial chain costs is not smooth, with multi-dimensional contract orders trading and light spot negotiations. The demand side of BDO is affected by bearish factors.

In the future market forecast, the supply of goods will continue to increase, and the support from the supply side will weaken. However, in the situation where factories are operating at a low profit or loss, the supplier’s intention to maintain prices will continue. The actual demand downstream of the terminal follows lightly, and the transmission of industry chain costs is not smooth, resulting in strong bargaining sentiment when entering the market. Business analyst BDO predicts that the domestic BDO market will mainly operate weakly.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has been consolidating this week, with an average market price of 3000 yuan/ton from the beginning of the week to the weekend, an increase of 6.02% compared to the same period last year. On July 11th, the chemical index was 886 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 36.71% from the highest point of 1400 points during the cycle (2021-10-23), and an increase of 48.16% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)

Upstream caustic soda

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has increased. At the beginning of the week, the average market price in Shandong was around 814 yuan/ton, and over the weekend it was 816 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.25% and a year-on-year increase of 4.62%. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region has slightly increased, with the mainstream market price of 32% ion exchange membrane alkali ranging from 790 to 860 yuan/ton, and most enterprises raising it by 10-20 yuan/ton. The mainstream transaction price in Jiangsu region is around 860-940 yuan/ton.

Business Society analysts believe that the price of caustic soda has been consolidating this week, with traders actively shipping. However, downstream alumina is mostly purchased on demand, and the overall supply-demand game suggests that caustic soda prices may maintain a consolidating trend in the short term, depending on downstream market demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of Shengyishe, the price of bromine is in a weak trend. At the beginning of the month, the average market price was 22660 yuan/ton. On July 9th, the average market price was 20900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.77% and an increase of 14.84% compared to the same period last year. On July 8th, the bromine commodity index was 74.04, a decrease of 1.4 points from yesterday, a decrease of 69.80% from the highest point in the cycle of 245.18 points (2021-10-27), and an increase of 25.66% from the lowest point of 58.92 points on October 29th, 2014. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

In early July, the price of bromine was weak, and currently the mainstream market price in Shandong is around 20000-21000 yuan/ton. In terms of supply, various bromine manufacturers are currently operating normally, producing seawater bromine in large quantities. Imported bromine has gradually arrived at the port, increasing bromine production and impacting the domestic market. The production of downstream flame retardants for bromine is average, and the industry is operating weakly. The demand for agriculture and intermediates is average. In terms of raw materials, domestic sulfur prices have risen, with an average market price of 1206.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and an average market price of 1293.33 yuan/ton over the weekend, with a price increase of 7.18%, an increase of 77.77% compared to the same period last year. Downstream procurement is mainly based on demand.

It is predicted that the price of bromine will be weak in the near future. Although the upstream sulfur price has risen, the downstream flame retardant production of bromine is average, and the industry is operating in a weak market. The demand for agriculture and intermediates is average. The comprehensive supply-demand game predicts that bromine may continue to operate in a weak market in the later stage, depending on the downstream market demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the isopropanol market operated in a volatile manner in June, with a slight increase overall. On June 1st, the average price of isopropanol in China was 8640 yuan/ton, and on June 28th, it was 8660 yuan/ton. The price increased by 0.23% during the month.

The isopropanol market fluctuated in June, with a slight overall increase. In the early days, the price of acetone on raw materials increased, providing good cost support. The isopropanol market followed the rise in raw material acetone prices. The isopropanol market had poor trading in mid month, with a slight downward shift in the center of gravity on the market. In the latter half of the month, the price of acetone fell, and isopropanol also followed its trend. As of now, the majority of isopropanol market quotations in Shandong region are around 8500-8650 yuan/ton; The majority of isopropanol prices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions are around 8800-8900 yuan/ton.

In terms of import and export, according to customs statistics, the export volume of isopropanol in China in May 2024 was 18525915 kilograms, with an export amount of 19998263 US dollars. From January to May 2024, China’s cumulative export volume of isopropanol was 83674280 kilograms, with a cumulative amount of 90135113 US dollars. According to customs statistics, the import volume of isopropanol in China in May 2024 was 1521102 kilograms, with an import amount of 3260762 US dollars. From January to May 2024, the cumulative import volume of isopropanol in China was 14817143 kilograms, with a cumulative amount of 24981188 US dollars.

In terms of raw material acetone, the domestic acetone market rose first and then fell in June, with the market price range mainly fluctuating. Overall, the domestic acetone market has weak trading volume. Lihua Yiweiyuan Chemical Co., Ltd. has lowered the ex factory price of acetone products by 200 yuan/ton, and implemented a price of 8100 yuan/ton. This price will be implemented from June 28th. It is expected that the acetone market will operate weakly and steadily in the short term.

In terms of propylene, according to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price increased in June. At the beginning of June, the market average was 6854.6 yuan/ton, with an average price of 7213.25 yuan/ton on June 28th, a monthly increase of 5.23%. In the short term, the inventory of propylene enterprises is still acceptable and overall controllable, with downstream procurement on demand. It is expected that propylene will continue to fluctuate at high levels in the short term.

3、 Future Market Forecast

An isopropanol analyst from the Chemical Branch of Shengyishe believes that in June, the domestic raw material acetone fluctuated and propylene rose, and cost support is still acceptable. However, downstream market demand is limited, and the market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. It is expected that in the short term, isopropanol will be more cautious and the market will be mainly weak and volatile.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the spot prices of natural rubber in China have recently narrowed from June 18th to June 24th. As of June 24th, the spot rubber market in China was around 14402 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.04% from 14408 yuan/ton on June 18th, and the highest point in the cycle was 14465 yuan/ton.

On the one hand, the supply of raw materials in the production areas is tight, which provides strong support for the natural rubber market. In the last week of the month, the circulation of imported rubber goods remained tight, and in addition, some areas of the Hainan production area in China were hindered in rubber cutting, resulting in a continuous increase in the purchase prices of raw materials in the production area. At present, the raw material production areas in Thailand and Vietnam are affected by the weather, and the cutting progress is slow. As of June 24th, the price of Thai glue is 73.45 Thai baht/kg, and the price has declined; As of the 24th, the purchase price of state-owned and gold rubber water based concentrated latex raw materials in Hainan production area was around 14500 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of glue based all latex raw materials was around 14200 yuan/ton.

On the other hand, the slow destocking of natural rubber inventory provides certain support for the natural rubber market. As of June 23, 2024, the total inventory of Tianjiao Bonded and General Trade in Qingdao area was 511200 tons, a decrease of 2.76% compared to the previous month. The inventory in the bonded zone was 69900 tons, a decrease of 8.04%; The general trade inventory was 441300 tons, a decrease of 1.87%.

Downstream tire production has slightly increased, with demand supporting the natural rubber market to some extent. Downstream inquiries are resistant to high priced sources, resulting in a high price drop in natural rubber prices. As of June 20th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was around 790%; The operating load of all steel tires for tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 5.8%.

Market forecast: Currently, the supply in some domestic and foreign regions is still relatively low, and the overall raw material prices remain high, supporting the cost of natural rubber; At present, downstream tire companies on the demand side have a slow speed of destocking, and tire companies are cautious in purchasing natural rubber; At present, natural rubber port inventories continue to decline. It is expected that the natural rubber spot market will continue to maintain a high consolidation trend in the short term. In the later stage, with the increase in supply in production areas and the decrease in downstream off-season production, it is expected that the natural rubber market will fall back from a high level.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, the price of caustic soda has remained stable this week. The average market price from the beginning of the week to the weekend was 796 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.69% compared to the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the overall domestic caustic soda prices have remained stable this week. The price of caustic soda in Hubei region is temporarily stable, with a mainstream market price of around 970-1050 yuan/ton for 32% ion exchange membrane caustic soda. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is consolidating, with a mainstream market price of around 760-840 yuan/ton for 32% ion exchange membrane caustic soda. The domestic price of downstream alumina remains in a narrow consolidation trend, as the delayed increase in alumina content is less than expected, downstream production and supply are stable, and the available spot quantity in the market is limited. Overall, alumina prices are mainly consolidating and operating.

In May 2024, China imported 3024.37 tons of liquid alkali, an increase of 2980.865 tons compared to the previous month, with a month on month increase of 6851.78%. In May 2024, China’s liquid alkali export volume was 275644.752 tons, an increase of 159554.972 tons compared to the previous month, with a month on month increase of 137.44%.

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 25th week of 2024 (6.17-6.21), there were 0 products that rose, 4 products that fell, and 3 products that rose or fell to 0 on the chlor alkali industry price list. The main commodities falling include PVC (-1.28%), light soda ash (-0.71%), and baking soda (-0.51%). The average increase and decrease this week is -0.43%.

Analysts from Business Society believe that in the near future, the price of caustic soda has been consolidating this week. It is expected that the utilization rate of caustic soda production capacity will be around 85.5% this week, and the utilization rate of production capacity may increase. Downstream aluminum oxide is mainly purchased on demand, and the comprehensive supply-demand game predicts that caustic soda may maintain a consolidating operation in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.