Recently, the market price of hexafluoropropylene has shown a weak downward trend. Downstream demand is cold and procurement is not active, so there is currently no good news. According to the data monitoring system of Shengyishe, as of May 31st, the benchmark price of hexafluoropropylene in Shengyishe was 35650.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.63% compared to the beginning of this month (35875.00 yuan/ton).

Raw material side: High market prices are under pressure, and production enterprises have thin profits. According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the benchmark price of hydrofluoric acid in Shengyishe is 11620.00 yuan/ton, which is unchanged from the beginning of this month. The operation of hydrofluoric acid plants has not changed much, and some manufacturers of hydrofluoric acid have accumulated inventory. The mainstream price of hydrofluoric acid negotiated in various regions of China is 11200-11700 yuan/ton, and there are still units waiting for market shutdown. The spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is normal, and the operation of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid is about 60%. The overall domestic hydrofluoric acid price trend remained stable in May.

The downstream market is relatively quiet, with poor demand, and the focus is on purchasing for essential needs.

Business Society’s hexafluoropropylene analyst predicts that due to the recent high cost support of hexafluoropropylene, downstream market demand is poor, and on-demand procurement is affected. It is expected that the hexafluoropropylene market will operate weakly and steadily in the near future. More attention should be paid to market news guidelines.

This month, the domestic market atmosphere for monoethanolamine continued to be light. As of May 30th, the benchmark price of Yishangshe Yiethanolamine was 10440.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.57% compared to the beginning of this month (10500.00 yuan/ton). This month, the primary demand for transactions in the monoethanolamine market has weakened expectations for transactions, with dealers offering more discounts for shipments, and downstream purchasing intentions being lackluster.

Market analysis:

This month, the performance of the monoethanolamine market has been relatively stable, but with a slight off-season atmosphere. After experiencing a period of decline, the price of ethylene oxide in the market gradually stabilized. As the main raw material of monoethanolamine, it provided some support for the cost of monoethanolamine, but the support was still average. Due to the relatively sufficient supply of monoethanolamine in the market, while the demand from downstream users has weakened, the trading atmosphere in the market appears relatively cold.

On the one hand, downstream users mostly follow up on demand and are cautious in purchasing monoethanolamine. Market transactions are mainly based on regular orders and lack support from bulk purchases; On the other hand, some production enterprises may have made price adjustments to reduce inventory, further affecting the market price trend.

In terms of cost:

The domestic market price of ethylene oxide fell in May. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 30th, the average price quoted by domestic ethylene oxide enterprises was 6900.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.43% compared to the price on May 1st (the reference price for ethylene oxide was 7000.00 yuan/ton). The early maintenance equipment has started to resume production, and there has been a slight increase in supply pressure. Coupled with the unsatisfactory transmission of downstream product prices, the price of ethylene oxide has begun to decline. However, the cost support brought by the raw material side remains, and it is expected that there is not much room for price decline in the short term, with short-term fluctuations being mainly weak.

The liquid ammonia market fluctuated in May. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 28th, the average quoted price of liquid ammonia enterprises was 3100.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.91% compared to May 1st (reference price of liquid ammonia was 2983.33 yuan/ton), and a decrease of -6.06% compared to May 15th (reference price of liquid ammonia was 3300.00 yuan/ton). The main reason is that the maintenance equipment has resumed work one after another, and the supply side has shown a loose performance. Coupled with the downstream related product urea, which stopped rising this week, some regions have fallen back, and the market has fallen into a stalemate, which has dragged down ammonia prices.

On the demand side:

As an important organic chemical raw material, monoethanolamine has a wide and diverse range of application scenarios on the demand side. In the chemical industry, monoethanolamine is the main raw material used as a corrosion inhibitor, surfactant, catalyst and crosslinking agent in the polyurethane (coating) industry, fluorescent whitening agent in the textile industry, synthesis of advanced dyes in the dyeing and chemical industry, neutralizing agent in the rubber and ink industries, rust inhibitor, preservative, paint manufacturing and acid gas absorption rust inhibitor, preservative, paint manufacturing and acid gas absorption agent collector. Downstream stocking is mainly based on demand.

Overall:

The market for monoethanolamine is showing a stable and weak trend, with downstream user procurement demand mainly maintaining in a rigid range. Holders have a relatively pessimistic attitude, and the focus of market negotiations is clearly biased towards the low price range. Without clear positive factors to support it, the monoethanolamine market is currently struggling to reverse its decline. According to analysts from Business Society, the market for monoethanolamine may continue its weak consolidation trend in the short term.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic market price trend of ortho phthalic anhydride increased in May. As of the end of the month, the quoted price of ortho phthalic anhydride was 8187.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.06% compared to the price of 7720 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and a year-on-year increase of 2.99%.

Supply side: The device operates stably and the supply of goods is normal

The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plants is stable, with a recent operating rate of around 60%. The spot supply of phthalic anhydride is normal, and the sales situation of phthalic anhydride manufacturers is average. In May, the price of industrial naphthalene rose, and the market for naphthalene based phthalic anhydride has risen, which has affected the price of ortho phthalic anhydride.

Cost side: Rising prices of ortho benzene, strong cost support

In May, the domestic price trend of ortho benzene increased. As of the end of the month, the price of ortho benzene was 8400 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.20% from the beginning of the month’s price of 8300 yuan/ton. Due to tight supply of ortho benzene and maintenance of some equipment on site, the price trend of crude oil has risen in the short term, and the price of mixed xylene has risen. The rise of ortho benzene has provided strong cost support for the phthalic anhydride market, and the price trend of the phthalic anhydride market has risen.

On the demand side: The trend of on-demand procurement in the DOP market is increasing

In May, the downstream DOP market price trend increased, with a price of 10162.5 yuan/ton as of the end of the month, an increase of 3.83% compared to the beginning of the month’s price of 9787.5 yuan/ton. Domestic DOP enterprises are operating normally, and domestic DOP supply is normal. However, plasticizer enterprises are still operating at a loss, and downstream demand is average, The mainstream price of DOP has risen to 10100-10200 yuan/ton, and the downstream DOP price trend has increased, leading to an increase in the purchase of phthalic anhydride and an increase in the domestic phthalic anhydride market price trend.

Looking at the future market: In recent times, crude oil prices have fluctuated and risen, while ortho xylene prices have risen. Downstream DOP prices have fluctuated and risen, but the demand for plasticizers has not improved significantly. Downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, and it is expected that the market price of ortho phthalic anhydride will mainly fluctuate in the later period.

In May, the market price of industrial grade 85% formic acid in China fell. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 28th, the average price quoted by formic acid companies was 2937.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.65% compared to the price on May 1st (formic acid reference price of 3287.50 yuan/ton).

From the monitoring chart of Business Society data, it can be seen that the industrial grade 85% formic acid market experienced an overall decline in May. In the first half of the month, the price of raw material methanol in the market rose and cost support increased, but demand support was weak. Downstream buying was flat, and inquiries and purchases were mainly in demand. Manufacturers accumulated inventory to promote transactions, and the focus of negotiations in the formic acid market declined. In the second half of the month, the raw material methanol market surged and fell, and cost support weakened from strong to weak. The supply side has sufficient supply of goods, but the demand follow-up is limited, resulting in a bearish supply and demand side. Enterprises are actively selling at a profit margin, and the formic acid market has stabilized after a decline.

Future Market Forecast:

Business Society formic acid analysts believe that the current cost face has limited market impact, and downstream users need to follow up on dips. The market atmosphere is average, and it is expected that in the short term, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market may operate steadily, and more attention should be paid to market news guidance.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic market for imported potassium chloride remained stable this week (5.20-24), with little price change compared to the previous weekend. As of the end of this week, the price of potassium chloride was quoted at 2516 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the domestic price of potassium chloride has not changed much, and the market has remained calm, with prices still in the process of consolidation. In terms of imports, the price of 60% potassium chloride is mostly between 2200-2500 yuan/ton. Due to the previous level of arrivals this month, the domestic market has shown a basic balance between supply and demand, and there has been no surplus situation in the market. The price remains rigid and strong. The quotations from major domestic manufacturers for salt lakes have not changed much, with prices reduced by 10 yuan/ton compared to last week, and domestic demand remains relatively sluggish.

From the downstream market situation of potassium chloride, there has been a slight improvement in the downstream potassium fertilizer market, with prices of major products rebounding. The market price of potassium carbonate has slightly declined this week, rising from 7250 yuan/ton last weekend to 7290 yuan/ton this weekend, an increase of 0.55%. The potassium nitrate market continues to rise, with an increase of 2.51%. The price has risen from 4975 yuan/ton last weekend to 5100 yuan/ton this weekend. Overall, the downstream market situation of potassium chloride has slightly improved, and it is expected to have a certain positive effect on upstream potassium chloride in the later stage. However, considering that the prices of potassium chloride production enterprises are currently mostly unchanged, it is also necessary to be cautious about the later market situation.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to a potassium chloride data analyst from Business Society, the potassium chloride market was mainly stable in early June. This week, the salt lake quotation slightly decreased, and the domestic market supply and demand were weakly balanced. It is expected that potassium chloride will not have much upward momentum.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 24th, the average price of white oil in the market was 8466 yuan/ton. On May 17th, the average price of white oil in the market was 8483 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.2%.

In terms of cost

Crude oil has been falling for four consecutive trading days, WTI crude oil fell to a nearly three-month low. The main reason is that the high interest rate environment in the United States has brought pressure to demand, and in addition, US inventory data is bearish and geopolitical risk premiums are decreasing.

In terms of supply and demand

On the supply side, the supply from upstream refineries has slightly decreased. Light white oil manufacturers have made price adjustments to individual models this week. On the demand side, the market transaction atmosphere is sluggish, and downstream low-priced rigid demand procurement is the main focus.

Future Market Forecast

At present, the trading atmosphere in the market is sluggish, and it is expected that the white oil market will undergo weak consolidation and adjustment. Suggest paying attention to the adjustment of upstream oil prices.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong has been fluctuating and consolidating recently. At the beginning of this week, the average production price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong was 4875.00 yuan/ton. Over the weekend, the average production price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong was 4875.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.51%, a month on month increase of 1.55%, and a year-on-year decrease of 2.00%.

Upstream methanol situation: The domestic methanol market is on the rise. On the cost side, the available resources at ports are gradually decreasing, especially due to the tight supply of some high-quality chemical coal. In addition, the market still has expectations for the upcoming peak season, and traders have a strong sentiment of price support. In mid month, most coal mines maintained normal production status, mainly focusing on fulfilling long-term agreements, and the coal supply was relatively stable. With the rise in temperature and the demand for electricity, downstream power plants may gradually replenish their warehouses, providing some support for coal prices. The cost of methanol is influenced by favorable factors.

Recently, the methanol market has been fluctuating at a high level, and cost support is still acceptable. Polyformaldehyde production is normal, and polyformaldehyde analysts at Business Society predict that prices may slightly increase.

Recently (5.13-5.22), the trichloromethane market in Shandong Province has seen a narrow consolidation. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 22, the price of trichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2770 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.73% from 2750 yuan/ton on May 13. The price of raw material methanol has significantly increased, while the price of liquid chlorine has slightly decreased, and the cost of trichloromethane continues to support. Downstream production remains low, while terminal procurement performance is mediocre; The market for trichloromethane has seen a narrow consolidation.

Recently (from May 13th to May 22nd), some equipment loads have increased, and the overall production of methane chloride in China has slightly increased to around 7.3%.

Recently (5.13-5.22), methanol prices have significantly increased, while liquid chlorine prices have slightly decreased, and the cost of trichloromethane continues to support. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of May 22, the spot price of methanol was 2900 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.41% from 2700 yuan/ton on May 13. As of May 22nd, the acceptance price of liquid chlorine tank trucks in Shandong region is around 300 yuan/ton, which is lower than the 500 yuan/ton in early May.

Recently (5.13-5.22), the price of downstream refrigerant R22 has risen and started production at a low level, providing weak support for the demand for trichloromethane.

Business Society methane chloride data analyst believes that the cost of trichloromethane continues to support; The downstream refrigerant industry is operating at a low level, with limited support for the demand for trichloromethane. As the downstream peak season gradually ends, it is expected that the trichloromethane market will be weak and mainly consolidating in the later stage.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 21st, the average price of epoxy propane in the domestic market is referenced at 9225.00 yuan/ton, which is basically unchanged compared to last Friday’s price.

Recently, the epoxy propane market has been stagnant and wait-and-see. Recently, the price of propylene raw material has slightly increased, while the price of liquid chlorine raw material is narrow and weak, with average cost support. Part of the equipment on the supply side fluctuates, and inventory pressure is temporarily controllable, supporting the mentality of the industry. However, downstream customers have a strong cautious and wait-and-see attitude towards high-level delivery, and they follow up with the demand in moderation. Holders mainly ship according to the market.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the reference price for propylene on May 20th was 6788.60, a decrease of 0.18% compared to May 1st (6800.60).

Future Market Forecast:

Business Society’s epoxy propane analyst believes that short-term cost support may be limited, and supply side pressure is not significant for the time being. However, under the expectation of incremental growth, downstream wait-and-see sentiment is gradually increasing. It is expected that in the short term, the epoxy propane market may remain stagnant and operate on a wait-and-see basis, and more attention should be paid to market news guidance.

This week, the lead market (5.13-5.20) has shown an overall upward trend, with the average domestic market price last week at 17790 yuan/ton and this week at 18540 yuan/ton, up 4.22%.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar indicates the magnitude of the rise and fall, and the overall market trend has been stable, moderate, and strong in recent times. The lead ingot market has seen more ups and downs in recent times.

Macro: The US non farm payroll data in April fell short of expectations, and the softening of consumer prices in April boosted market expectations. The Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates in September this year, with two cuts throughout the year, and the market has regained its expectation of a rate cut. The number of initial jobless claims in the United States announced on Thursday exceeded expectations and rebounded, reaching a new high since August 2023. The US dollar index closed last Friday with a weekly decline of 0.79%. The US dollar weakened, and the non-ferrous metal sector rebounded.

Supply: The supply at the mining end is still tight, with local lead enterprises resuming work and undergoing maintenance in the near future, and local lead enterprises operating at a low rate; The difficulty in purchasing raw materials for recycled lead enterprises has led to a decline in operating rates and a tight supply of recycled lead. Due to the impact of raw material supply, the expected supply of lead ingots in the near future is tight.

Demand: May is the seasonal off-season for battery companies, and they are still actively digesting existing inventory. Due to the high rise in raw material prices, battery companies are currently under significant cost pressure and operating at a low level.

Future outlook: Overall, the macro market atmosphere is currently warm, with the nonferrous metal market generally rising and lead prices following the overall upward trend. The lead ingot market has been affected by multiple factors, and the supply has been tight recently. With the dual benefits of macro and supply constraints, lead prices will continue to remain strong in the short term.

Industry data:

On May 19th, the base metal index was 1359 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 15.90% from the highest point in the cycle of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 111.68% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

On May 19th, the non-ferrous index was 1242 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 19.25% from the highest point in the cycle of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and an increase of 104.61% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 20th week of 2024 (5.13-5.17), there were a total of 12 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that showed a month on month increase in commodity prices. Among them, there were 4 commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 16% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The top three commodities with the highest increase are antimony (12.80%), tin (5.35%), and aluminum oxide (5.07%). There are a total of 8 products with a month on month decline, and the top 3 products with a decline are dysprosium oxide (-4.20%), praseodymium neodymium oxide (-1.83%), and dysprosium iron alloy (-1.69%). The average increase and decrease this week is 1.23%.