This week, the lead market (5.13-5.20) has shown an overall upward trend, with the average domestic market price last week at 17790 yuan/ton and this week at 18540 yuan/ton, up 4.22%.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar indicates the magnitude of the rise and fall, and the overall market trend has been stable, moderate, and strong in recent times. The lead ingot market has seen more ups and downs in recent times.

Macro: The US non farm payroll data in April fell short of expectations, and the softening of consumer prices in April boosted market expectations. The Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates in September this year, with two cuts throughout the year, and the market has regained its expectation of a rate cut. The number of initial jobless claims in the United States announced on Thursday exceeded expectations and rebounded, reaching a new high since August 2023. The US dollar index closed last Friday with a weekly decline of 0.79%. The US dollar weakened, and the non-ferrous metal sector rebounded.

Supply: The supply at the mining end is still tight, with local lead enterprises resuming work and undergoing maintenance in the near future, and local lead enterprises operating at a low rate; The difficulty in purchasing raw materials for recycled lead enterprises has led to a decline in operating rates and a tight supply of recycled lead. Due to the impact of raw material supply, the expected supply of lead ingots in the near future is tight.

Demand: May is the seasonal off-season for battery companies, and they are still actively digesting existing inventory. Due to the high rise in raw material prices, battery companies are currently under significant cost pressure and operating at a low level.

Future outlook: Overall, the macro market atmosphere is currently warm, with the nonferrous metal market generally rising and lead prices following the overall upward trend. The lead ingot market has been affected by multiple factors, and the supply has been tight recently. With the dual benefits of macro and supply constraints, lead prices will continue to remain strong in the short term.

Industry data:

On May 19th, the base metal index was 1359 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 15.90% from the highest point in the cycle of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 111.68% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

On May 19th, the non-ferrous index was 1242 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 19.25% from the highest point in the cycle of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and an increase of 104.61% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 20th week of 2024 (5.13-5.17), there were a total of 12 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that showed a month on month increase in commodity prices. Among them, there were 4 commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 16% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The top three commodities with the highest increase are antimony (12.80%), tin (5.35%), and aluminum oxide (5.07%). There are a total of 8 products with a month on month decline, and the top 3 products with a decline are dysprosium oxide (-4.20%), praseodymium neodymium oxide (-1.83%), and dysprosium iron alloy (-1.69%). The average increase and decrease this week is 1.23%.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of May 17th, the average price of alumina in the market was 3800 yuan/ton, and on May 10th, the average price of alumina in the market was 3616 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.07% compared to last week.

In terms of cost

Before the mine fully resumes production, the supply of alumina will be restricted, which provides support for prices.

In terms of supply and demand

At present, the profitability level of aluminum plants is generally good. In the context of scarce raw material ores, aluminum plants have the ability to transfer some profits to aluminum oxide plants to ensure the stability of raw material supply. The 500000 tons of electrolytic aluminum production capacity that has not resumed production in Yunnan also provides an expected increase in demand for alumina.

Future Market Forecast

Due to the shortage of raw materials and the expected increase in demand, it is expected that the strength of alumina may continue until June.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 9th, the average market price of resorcinol was 44750 yuan/ton.

Pure benzene: The domestic price of pure benzene has slightly decreased this week. On May 15th, the price of pure benzene was 8742 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.18% from last week. After the holiday, the rebound of crude oil was not significant. Overall, the trend of the crude oil market declined during the cycle, and the market was relatively weak due to the influence of crude oil. Shandong Refinery’s offer was strong, but buyer intention fell, prices fell, and transaction volume decreased.

Nitric acid: The domestic price of nitric acid has slightly increased this week. On May 15th, the price of nitric acid was 1913 yuan/ton, and on May 8th, it was 1876 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.97% compared to last week. The supply side of the concentrated nitric acid market is supported, with a slight increase in cost trends. The market mainly focuses on orders, and the market transaction situation has improved.

M-phenylenediamine: The domestic price of m-phenylenediamine remained stable this week. On May 15th, the price of phenylenediamine was 38600 yuan/ton, which remained unchanged from last week. The downstream market orders for dispersed dyes and reactive dyes have decreased, and the overall situation is not optimistic. Some manufacturers may have plans to reduce their burden.

The atmosphere of the resorcinol market remained stable this week. From the perspective of supply and demand, the spot supply in the market was loose, with downstream buyers mainly focusing on demand. The downstream resin industry has been slow to follow up on demand, with basic needs being the main focus. The dye factory is actively selling out profits. Expected consolidation of the market trend range for resorcinol.

Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the industrial grade calcium formate market rose in April. As of April 30th, the average price of 98% industrial grade calcium formate in China was 3807.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.01% compared to the beginning of the month at 3732.50 yuan/ton, and an increase of 5.54% compared to March at 3607.50 yuan/ton.

quotations analysis

Cost side:

As of April 30th, the mainstream price of industrial grade 85% formic acid was 3287.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 137.5 yuan or 4.37% compared to early March. Compared to April 1st (with a reference price of 3300.00 yuan/ton for formic acid), the price has decreased by 0.38%.

From the monitoring chart of Business Society data, it can be seen that the formic acid market price remained stable and slightly weak in April. In the first ten days, the price of raw material methanol fluctuated and fell, while the price of raw material sulfuric acid remained roughly stable. The cost support was average, and downstream demand was mostly followed by rigid demand. Supply and demand support was relatively stable, and the center of gravity of formic acid prices remained stable. In the middle of the month, the price of raw material methanol rose, cost support increased, and the main factories maintained a stable trend. Orders were mainly shipped, and dealer quotations were mainly negotiated with the company. Market transactions continued to be in high demand. In the latter half of the year, the price of raw material methanol has slightly decreased, and cost support is slightly weak. Downstream industries are preparing goods at appropriate prices according to demand before festivals, and some companies are offering discounts and accepting orders. The company’s quotations have remained stable with little movement, and the market negotiation space has increased.

Demand side:

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the cement market in East China increased in April, with the price of No. 1 being 302.00 yuan/ton and No. 24 being 316.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.64%. The current price has dropped by 23.11% year-on-year.

From January to March, the national real estate development investment was 2208.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.5% (calculated according to comparable standards); Among them, residential investment reached 1658.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.5%. From January to March, the construction area of real estate development enterprises was 678.51 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 11.1%. Among them, the residential construction area was 47.45.8 million square meters, a decrease of 11.7%. In recent years, real estate investment has shown a significant year-on-year decline, and infrastructure demand is difficult to hedge against the impact of the real estate downturn. The support for the cement market is weak.

Calcium formate can enhance the performance of cement, such as increasing hardness and shortening setting time, inhibiting corrosion of metal substrates, and preventing weathering. The increase in cement consumption in the construction industry has driven the market for calcium formate.

Overall

At present, the price of industrial grade calcium formate is relatively strong, and the cost support is still acceptable. It is expected that in the short term, the market situation of industrial grade calcium formate may remain stable, and more attention needs to be paid to changes in the supply side.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from May 6th to 11th, the price of asphalt in Shandong Province dropped from 3680 yuan/ton to 3652 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.78%, an increase of 0.16% month on month, and a year-on-year decrease of 2.81%. In some regions, the price range has been narrowed down, while the overall spot price of asphalt has remained stable with minor adjustments. Affected by the significant decline in crude oil during the holiday, some brand markets in Shandong and North China remained stable and fell after the holiday, while the asphalt market showed some fatigue and the trading atmosphere was light.

On the supply side, in terms of major production enterprises, the increase in asphalt production by Dongming Petrochemical and individual main refineries in East China has driven the overall supply up; The comprehensive operating rate of the asphalt industry has increased month on month, with negative impacts on the supply side.

On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: International oil prices have seen a narrow decline overall, with the main negative factors being the positive progress in the ceasefire negotiations between Palestine and Israel, the easing of geopolitical tensions, and the still bearish outlook for global demand. As of May 9th, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures main contract was reported at $83.88 per barrel.

On the demand side, logistics and transportation are limited during the holiday period, and some downstream projects are intermittently suspended, resulting in a decrease in asphalt shipments. After the holiday, downstream demand has slightly increased, and the industry mainly purchases according to demand. The differentiation of demand between the north and south is obvious, and the impact of precipitation weather in the south is still significant, making it difficult to recover demand; As the weather improves in the north, construction conditions are gradually improving, and downstream resumption of work is expected to increase. The demand side of the asphalt market has a mixed impact.

As of the close on May 11th, the petroleum asphalt futures market remained stable. The main asphalt contract 2409 opened at 3689 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 3694 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 3681 yuan/ton. It closed at 3687 yuan/ton, which was unchanged from the previous trading day’s settlement. The trading volume was 45062 lots, with a position of 186343 lots and a daily increase of 359 lots.

In the future market forecast, the fluctuating operation after the cost side falls will have weak support for asphalt prices, and the supply will increase in the short term. The demand differentiation between the north and south is obvious, and with a dual increase in supply and demand, asphalt analysts from Business Society predict that the short-term domestic asphalt market situation will be mainly focused on observation and consolidation.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of caprolactam in China on May 11th was 12900 yuan/ton, which is 0.58% higher than the average market price of 12825 yuan/ton on May 6th.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of caprolactam has increased this week. The price of raw material pure benzene has increased, leading to increased cost support. The downstream operating rate has increased, leading to a positive demand for raw materials. The overall industry chain market trend is moving upwards. Some companies have resumed maintenance of their caprolactam units, leading to an increase in market supply. The settlement price of Sinopec caprolactam is 13350 yuan/ton, which is a high-quality liquid product.

Raw material pure benzene market. This week, the price of pure benzene has slightly increased. On May 6th, the price of pure benzene was 8665.5 yuan/ton, and on May 11th, the price of pure benzene was 8750.5 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.98%. This week, the price of Sinopec’s pure benzene is 8800 yuan/ton (prices in Shandong and Hebei regions are synchronized).

Downstream PA6 market. The domestic PA6 market has risen this week. The high level of construction in the aggregation factory has increased the enthusiasm for raw material procurement. As of May 11th, the reference price for domestic PA6 is 14687.5 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society Caprolactam Analysts believe that the recent trend of caprolactam market is upward. The optimistic upstream and downstream market has driven the price of caprolactam to slightly rebound and rise. It is expected that the short-term market for caprolactam will tend to be strong, with consolidation and operation being the main focus.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the prices of industrial grade lithium carbonate and battery grade lithium carbonate have shown a stable, moderate, and slight upward trend after the May Day holiday. On May 9th, the average domestic mixed price of industrial grade lithium carbonate was 109200 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.74% compared to the average price of 108400 yuan/ton on May 1st. On May 9th, the average domestic mixed price of battery grade lithium carbonate was 116200 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.69% compared to the average price of 115400 yuan/ton on May 1st.

By observing market changes, it can be seen that the spot market for lithium carbonate has remained relatively calm during the May Day holiday, and there has been a slight increase in market resumption prices after the holiday. In terms of supply, some lithium salt companies still maintain a positive attitude towards selling individual orders. In addition, the market price of lithium carbonate futures increased at the beginning of the week, and some lithium salt companies slightly increased their prices for individual orders.

According to Chilean customs data on May 3rd, Chile exported approximately 22900 tons of lithium carbonate to China in April, a month on month increase of 42.27% and a year-on-year increase of 162.25%. From January to April, the cumulative amount was approximately 64873 tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 60.34%. The domestic import of lithium carbonate may show an upward trend around May, which will provide supplementary supply to the domestic market.

In terms of demand, downstream enterprises such as positive electrodes have already prepared their goods in advance before the May Day holiday, and their raw material inventory is sufficient to support production orders for a period of time in the future. Additionally, some of the purchased goods have arrived during the holiday. Downstream enterprises tend to adopt a wait-and-see attitude after the holiday, and the market transaction situation is relatively flat. Downstream material suppliers may adopt a strategy of purchasing at lower prices at the current price.

The lithium hydroxide market is operating steadily, with large factories mainly delivering long-term orders. The downstream demand for high nickel materials is still good, and the new energy and energy storage market is performing well. The demand side procurement or just in need follow-up is still the main trend. The market procurement mentality is still cautious, and the lithium hydroxide market may be wait-and-see, with little price fluctuation.

The downstream price of lithium iron phosphate is operating steadily. Due to sufficient pre holiday stocking in the downstream market, the supply of phosphoric acid is insufficient and the price of lithium carbonate is slightly rising, which provides some support to the cost side. With the end of the May Day holiday, lithium iron phosphate has maintained its current trend in the near future, with limited price fluctuations and a focus on stable observation.

In terms of futures, the price of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated and continued to fluctuate. On May 9th, the opening price of the LC2407 main contract was 112500 yuan/ton, the closing price was 111700 yuan/ton, and the highest price was 113450 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.76%. The transaction volume was 136100 lots, and the position was 193390 lots.

According to analysts from Shengyishe Lithium Carbonate, there is currently a large inventory reserve in the downstream market of lithium carbonate, and the current spot price of lithium carbonate is mostly higher than its procurement expectations, resulting in scarce market transactions. Some downstream enterprises have set the procurement node for May to be in mid to late May, and it is expected that the short-term spot price of lithium carbonate will remain stable, while observing market demand.

1、 Price trend

According to monitoring data from Business Society, the overall price of caustic soda decreased in April. At the beginning of the month, the average price in the Shandong market was 852 yuan/ton, and by the end of the month, the average price in the Shandong market was around 790 yuan/ton. The overall price dropped by 7.28%, a decrease of 12.61% compared to the same period last year. On April 29th, the chlor alkali index was 991 points, a decrease of 1 point from yesterday, a decrease of 53.43% from the highest point in the cycle of 2128 points (2021-10-24), and an increase of 39.19% from the lowest point of 712 points on January 5th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present)

2、 Market analysis

According to survey data from Business Society, the overall price of caustic soda has been weak this month. The price of caustic soda in Jiangsu region is currently stable, with a mainstream market quotation of around 810-880 yuan/ton for 32% ion exchange membrane caustic soda. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is currently stable, with a mainstream market quotation of around 690-790 yuan/ton for 32% ion exchange membrane caustic soda.

At the beginning of the month, the overall price of caustic soda was weak, and downstream aluminum oxide spot trading activity was average. The demand for caustic soda was average, and there was a strong wait-and-see purchasing sentiment. During the pre May Day stocking period, prices fluctuated slightly, but the overall price of caustic soda remained stable. With the increase in domestic caustic soda supply, there was pressure to sell goods. Downstream aluminum oxide spot stocks are mostly purchased on demand after pre holiday stocking, and moderate replenishment of caustic soda prices is not supported by favorable factors.

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 17th week of 2024 (4.22-4.26), there were a total of 2 products that rose, 3 products that fell, and 2 products that rose or fell to 0 on the chlor alkali industry price list. The main rising commodities include: light soda ash (5.26%) and baking soda (1.95%); The main commodities falling are: calcium carbide (-3.89%), caustic soda (-0.75%), and PVC (-0.04%). The average increase and decrease this week is 0.36%.

Business Society analysts believe that in recent times, caustic soda prices have been consolidating and operating. The purchase price of main alumina in Shandong region has been lowered again, with downstream demand being cautious and wait-and-see sentiment being the main factor. The transaction is lukewarm and not hot, and it is expected to move downwards in the later stage. The specific situation depends on downstream market demand.

In April, the butadiene styrene rubber market first rose and then fell, with a narrow range consolidation. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of April 30th, the price of butadiene benzene 1502 was at 13416 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.06% from 13425 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and the highest point in the cycle was 13533 yuan/ton.

In April, butadiene styrene rubber slightly decreased, and there was not much pressure on the supply side; Downstream tire production has slightly declined, with on-demand inquiries for the butadiene styrene rubber market and slightly weaker support for rigid demand; The prices of raw materials such as butadiene and styrene have slightly increased, while the cost support for butadiene styrene rubber remains strong. The market for butadiene styrene rubber is supported by costs and demand, but as marginal demand weakens, the high price of butadiene styrene rubber has slightly fallen.

Part of the devices have been operating at reduced loads, and the production of butadiene styrene rubber in April slightly decreased, dropping from 6.6% at the beginning of the month to around 6.2% at the end of the month.

In April, the prices of butadiene and styrene raw materials for butadiene styrene rubber slightly increased, supporting the cost side of butadiene styrene rubber.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 30th, the price of butadiene was 11712 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.63% from 11525 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month; As of April 30th, the price of styrene was 9637 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.16% from 9342 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

Demand side: Downstream tire production has slightly weakened, weakening support for butadiene styrene rubber. It is understood that as of the end of April, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was around 80%; The production of all steel tires by tire companies in Shandong region increased from 6.8% at the beginning of the month to around 7.1% in the middle of the month, and then continued to decline to 6.4% at the end of the month; Downstream customers tend to stock up on demand, resulting in lackluster market transactions.

Market forecast: Business Society analysts believe that the prices of raw materials such as butadiene and styrene are operating at high levels, and the cost of butadiene styrene rubber is currently supported strongly; In addition, the production of butadiene styrene rubber is at a low level, and the pressure on the supply side of butadiene styrene rubber is not high; The current downstream production of all steel tires has slightly decreased, while the production of half steel tires is at a high level, which provides weak support for the rigid demand for butadiene styrene rubber. Overall, the butadiene styrene rubber market may consolidate in the later stage.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the mixed xylene market rose first and then fell in April. On April 30th, the benchmark price of mixed xylene was 7680 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.32% from 7580 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and a decrease of 3.15% from the high point of 7930 yuan/ton in the cycle.

The international crude oil price range fluctuates, and the support for mixed xylene in the later stage is weak

The international crude oil price range fluctuated in April, with continued support for the cost of mixed xylene in the early stage and weakened support for mixed toluene due to the decline in prices at the end of the month. As of April 30th, the closing price of WTI06 contract is $81.52 per barrel; The Brent 07 contract closed at $85.92 per barrel. The high prices of mixed xylene in Asia provide support for the domestic market, with prices of heterogeneous grade xylene in Asia ranging from $990-991 per ton as of April 30th.

The production of xylene has significantly decreased, and the demand support for mixed xylene has weakened

In April, domestic PX production declined and the market remained stable. In mid to early April, some devices were shut down for maintenance, and PX production decreased from 8.4% to around 6.9%; In mid to late April, some maintenance equipment restarted, and the domestic PX production slightly increased to around 7.1%. It is understood that the 800000 ton/year PX unit of Zhenhai Refining and Chemical will be shut down for maintenance starting from April 4th; The 2.6 million ton/year PX unit of Guangdong Petrochemical was put into operation at reduced load on April 10th; Three sets of PX devices at Zhejiang Petrochemical were reduced in load, and one set of PX was repaired at the end of March; The 1 million ton/year PX plant of Urumqi Petrochemical was shut down for maintenance on April 14th; The Henry Petrochemical 2.5 million ton/year PX unit was shut down for maintenance on April 16th.

The production of phthalic anhydride is basically stable, and the demand support for mixed xylene is weak

The domestic phthalic anhydride plant is running smoothly, and Anhui Tongling ortho phthalic anhydride is starting to be shipped normally. The 100000 ton phthalic anhydride plant of Xinyang Group is running stably, and Shandong Hongxin phthalic anhydride is operating normally. Recently, the domestic phthalic anhydride operating rate is around 60%, and the spot supply of phthalic anhydride is normal. The production situation of phthalic anhydride manufacturers is average. In April, the price of industrial naphthalene slightly increased, and the market of naphthalene phthalic anhydride has risen, which has affected the price of ortho phthalic anhydride to rise.

Slow recovery of domestic mixed production and weak support for mixed xylene demand

The recovery of the domestic mixed blending market is slow, and the demand for mixed xylene is weak. As of the end of April, the operating capacity of refineries nationwide has slightly decreased to around 6.9.

The inventory of mixed xylene at the port is still at a high level, and supply pressure still exists

The inventory of mixed xylene at the port has slightly decreased, but overall it remains at a high level, and there is still pressure on the supply side of mixed xylene. It is understood that as of April 25th, the total inventory of xylene in East and South China amounted to 75000 tons, a decrease of about 13000 tons compared to late February.

Expected decrease in supply of mixed xylene for planned maintenance of multiple devices

Jiangsu Xinhai Petrochemical’s aromatics were shut down for maintenance on April 7th. In the later stage, there are still maintenance plans for toluene mixed xylene units such as Zhenhai Refining, Zhenghe Petrochemical, Dushanzi Petrochemical, and Dalian Xitai in May and June. Overall, the expected decline in toluene supply in the later stage provides some support for the toluene market.

Market forecast: From a fundamental perspective, the international crude oil sector will consolidate in the short term, with weak support for mixed xylene costs; Downstream PX and mixed blending industries saw a slight decline in production, while the phthalic anhydride industry saw a low level of production, resulting in overall weak support for mixed xylene demand; Multiple domestic devices are scheduled for maintenance in the later stage, and the supply of mixed xylene is expected to decline. Overall, it is expected that mixed xylene will first be suppressed and then increase in the later stage.