According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the supply and demand are weak, and the price center of polyester filament has remained stable this week. On January 24th, the mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang quoted POY (150D/48F) at 7100-7300 yuan/ton, polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) at 8300-8500 yuan/ton, and polyester FDY (150D/96F) at 7500-7700 yuan/ton.

This week, the trend of crude oil has shown a volatile trend, although there are some upward driving forces, such as the extreme cold weather in Europe and America stimulating fuel demand, and the intensified supply concerns caused by the new round of sanctions imposed by the United States on Russia, showing a volatile characteristic.

Due to the influence of the Spring Festival sentiment, the polyester filament market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, and the trend appears scattered. Downstream procurement has basically stopped, fabric sales in the weaving market have begun to shut down, and there is a large area of weaving parking.

Overall, it is expected that the polyester filament market may operate with a strong cost logic, with limited fluctuations.

1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by Shengyi Society, as of January 23, the average price quoted by domestic high-quality DMF enterprises was 4260 yuan/ton. DMF prices have remained stable this week, with little fluctuation compared to the same period last week.

2、 Market analysis

This week, DMF prices have remained stable and are approaching the end of the year. Downstream demand for DMF is not high, and rigid procurement is the main focus. Currently, companies are gradually shutting down production, and market prices remain stable.

In terms of cost: Since December, the spot market price of methanol in Henan has fluctuated, with a price range of 2300-2450 yuan per ton. Currently, the economy of traditional downstream industries is poor, and the market atmosphere in January is bearish. Traders mainly focus on clearing inventory, and their willingness to stockpile is not obvious.

3、 Future forecast

DMF analysts from Shengyi Society believe that in the short term, the DMF market will mainly operate steadily.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the market price of isopropanol first fell and then rose in January. On January 1st, the average price of isopropanol in China was 6660 yuan/ton, and on January 22nd, the average price was 6660 yuan/ton, which was the same as the beginning of the month. The lowest price this month is 6580 yuan/ton, and the highest price is yuan/ton.

The market price of isopropanol first fell and then rose in January. In the first half of the month, the market price of raw material acetone was low, and cost support was limited. The isopropanol market is relatively light, with overall purchasing intentions of downstream terminals being average. The sentiment of holders is unstable, with narrow discounts on transactions and a downward focus on trading. In the second half of the month, the price center of acetone market is upward, with strong cost support. In addition, with the approaching Spring Festival and downstream stocking up, isopropanol manufacturers are offering higher prices, and traders have a better mentality, increasing their intention to replenish. In addition, supported by some export orders, the spot market supply is tight, and the trading center is upward. As of now, most of the isopropanol market prices in Shandong are around 6500-6600 yuan/ton; The majority of isopropanol prices in the Jiangsu Zhejiang region are around 6750-6850 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material acetone, the overall price of acetone in the domestic acetone market increased in January. On January 1st, the average price of acetone was 5992.5 yuan/ton, and on January 22nd, the average price was 6097.5 yuan/ton. The price increased by 1.75% during the month. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, most companies have finished stocking up, and market trading follow-up is gradually weakening. The acetone market maintains a weak operation in the short term, with slight adjustments during the pre holiday period.

In terms of propylene, overall in January, the domestic propylene market prices first rose and then fell. At the beginning of January, the market was average at 6835.75 yuan/ton, with an average price of 6808.25 yuan/ton on January 22, a monthly decline of 0.4%. At present, the inventory pressure of propylene enterprises has decreased, and downstream companies are replenishing inventory at low prices, which has driven the overall delivery direction to improve and the shipment situation to improve. It is expected that propylene prices will remain stable with a moderate to strong trend in the short term.

The equipment situation shows that the propylene process unit is operating stably.

3、 Future forecast

An isopropanol analyst from the Chemical Branch of Shengyi Society believes that the rise in raw material acetone prices in January provides strong cost support. Approaching the Spring Festival holiday, downstream and traders have basically completed their year-end restocking, and market trading has slowed down. It is expected that the isopropanol market will remain stable and stable in the short term.

Ethylene glycol prices rise in January

The price of ethylene glycol will rise in January 2025. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of January 20th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4735 yuan/ton, an increase of 1% compared to the average price of 4688.33 yuan/ton on January 1st.

As the Spring Festival approaches, spot contract traders have weak trading, and receiving traders are cautious and afraid of high prices. They do not receive many goods, and market trading is average. The basis quotation range for this week’s contract is+21 to+24, the basis quotation range for February is+25 to+28, and the basis quotation range for March is+42 to+45.

On January 20th, the price of coal to ethylene glycol remained stable, with prices in the northwest region ranging from 4300 to 4360 yuan/ton, including taxes.

In terms of external ethylene glycol, the negotiated price for shipping in February was 547-550 US dollars/ton. On January 15th, the landed price in China was 552 US dollars/ton, and the landed price in Southeast Asia was 553 US dollars/ton.

Recent Overview of Ethylene Glycol Fundamentals

On the domestic supply side, the overall operating rate of ethylene glycol remained at around 70%, and Yulin Chemical in Shaanxi stopped production in mid month to replace catalysts, resulting in a slight decline in domestic supply compared to the previous month.

Overseas, a 700000 ton facility in Saudi Arabia has recently shut down and is expected to restart in February;

Domestic installation dynamics: Fude Energy’s 500000 ton production capacity was originally planned to shut down in January, but was postponed to February; Gulei Petrochemical plans to shut down for maintenance for one month starting from February 25th, with a production capacity of 700000 tons; Shanghai Petrochemical’s 2 # 38000 ton production capacity plan will restart in March April, while Zhenhai Refining’s 800000 ton production capacity restart will continue to be postponed; A new 600000 ton synthetic gas plant in Sichuan has started commissioning and operation this week.

On the demand side: The downstream polyester load has slightly fallen from a high level, mainly due to the decrease in terminal weaving operating load. The overall demand side is expected to weaken near the Spring Festival.

In terms of inventory: As of January 20th, the ethylene glycol inventory in the main ports of East China was 495900 tons, which is 397300 tons higher than the inventory on December 30th, 2024, with a total inventory of 98600 tons.

Reasons for the recent ethylene glycol market trend

Recently, international crude oil prices have strengthened, and cost side support has also increased. However, in January, overseas ethylene glycol was concentrated in ports, which to some extent suppressed the favorable cost side.

Recent ethylene glycol market forecast

Downstream polyester demand is expected to decline quarterly, with a clear weakening trend on the demand side. On the supply side, overseas supply may be affected by equipment maintenance factors, resulting in a decline. Domestic supply elasticity is relatively high. It is expected that there will be weak upward momentum in the short term, with a high probability of sideways fluctuations.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from January 13 to January 20, 2025, the toluene market first rose and then fell, with an overall upward trend. On January 13th, the benchmark price of toluene was 6300 yuan/ton, and on January 20th, the benchmark price of toluene was 6820 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.25%. The overall trend of the toluene market this week is upward, and the spot market trading has significantly improved compared to the previous period. This week, the strong performance of crude oil has led to an improvement in the atmosphere of the spot market. The overall supply in Shandong region is tight, and the procurement of the oil blending industry is good, which has boosted the mentality of refineries. The factory quotation has been raised multiple times this week. As market purchasing intentions gradually declined, the toluene market experienced a correction over the weekend.

Cost aspect: During this cycle, crude oil prices have risen significantly. On the one hand, the OPEC+production reduction agreement has been extended until the end of the first quarter, and some oil producing countries still have compensatory production cuts. The United States has increased sanctions on Russia, and there are strong concerns about supply shortages. The supply side of crude oil is supportive, and crude oil market prices have risen significantly. On the other hand, the instability of the situation in the Middle East still exists, and the arrival of winter cold waves in Europe and America is expected to further boost fuel demand, which is good news for the international oil market. Overall, the rate of change in crude oil during the cycle is continuously expanding in a positive direction. As of January 17th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $77.39 per barrel. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract is $80.79 per barrel.

Supply side: Sinopec’s toluene quotation first rose and then fell. Currently, the company is operating normally, the production of equipment is stable, and the products are mostly for personal use, with stable production and sales. As of January 20th, East China Company quoted 6700 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 6900 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 6650-6700 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 6900 yuan/ton.

On the demand side, the external market for xylene has slightly rebounded, and demand support is still acceptable

On January 20th, the price of xylene in the petrochemical sales company was temporarily stable, and the current execution price is 7300 yuan/ton. This price is implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. The operation of Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhenhai Petrochemical and other units is stable, and sales are normal. The PX price continued to decline both inside and outside the cycle. As of January 17th, the closing prices of the Asian xylene market were 873-875 US dollars/ton FOB Korea and 898-900 US dollars/ton CFR China.

Market forecast: The recent stable to strong trend of crude oil will provide a certain boost to the toluene market. The demand side has performed relatively well recently, and the Shandong region has performed well recently. However, with the downstream procurement intention coming to an end, there is currently a lack of market buying potential. Recently, the inventory of ports in East China has been relatively high on the supply side, and it is expected that there will be some room for downward adjustment in the toluene market in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic natural rubber spot market recently (1.1-1.17) fell first and then rose. As of January 17, the spot rubber market in China was around 16908 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.11% from 16890 yuan/ton on January 1, with a low point of 15626 yuan/ton during the cycle. Recently, raw material prices have fallen first and then risen; Domestic Tianjiao Port inventory continues to increase slightly; The pre holiday stocking of downstream tire factories supported the urgent demand of Tianjiao, and coupled with the rise in Shanghai rubber market this week, it drove the natural rubber spot market slightly higher.

In January, foreign natural rubber was in the peak season for rubber cutting. Coupled with favorable weather, the supply of natural rubber raw materials was sufficient in early January, and prices fell. However, the production areas in Yunnan and Hainan, China, gradually entered a period of cutting suspension. With the support of downstream stocking demand, natural raw material prices rebounded at a low level in mid to late January. As of January 17th, the price of Thai glue was 68.30 baht/kg, a significant increase from 63.00 baht/kg on the 9th and a slight increase from 66.00 baht/kg at the end of December.

Natural rubber inventory continues to show a state of accumulation. As of January 12, 2025, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 504300 tons, an increase of 4200 tons compared to the previous period.

Downstream tires mainly provide essential support for the natural rubber market, with strong pre holiday stocking providing strong support for Tianjin rubber in the early stages. As stocking gradually ends near the Spring Festival, support for Tianjin rubber will gradually weaken. As of January 16th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire companies has slightly decreased by around 7.8%; The construction of all steel tires by tire companies in Shandong Province has slightly decreased by about 60%.

Market forecast: The supply of foreign raw materials is gradually increasing in the current season, but the domestic market is in a period of suspension, which provides some support for natural rubber; Pre holiday stocking in the tire market provides essential support for natural rubber demand, but as the Spring Festival approaches and stocking ends, market transactions will gradually weaken; The inventory of Tianjiao Port continues to increase; Overall, it is expected that the natural rubber market will mainly consolidate within a certain range in the short term.

Price trend

The year 2024 has come to a successful end. Looking at the development of the titanium dioxide market this year, according to data monitoring by Shengyi Society, the overall market price of titanium dioxide will decline in 2024. At the beginning of the year, the average price of domestic titanium dioxide was 16483.33 yuan/ton, and at the end of the year, the average price was 14900 yuan/ton. The price dropped by 9.61% during the year.

Review of the Titanium Dioxide Market Situation

Product Market Trends

From the perspective of market development in 2024, the titanium dioxide market shows a trend of first rising and then falling. In the first quarter, the inventory of manufacturers was low, and the prices of upstream titanium concentrate and sulfuric acid rose, resulting in price increases. In the second quarter, the titanium dioxide market was weak and declining, resulting in a price reduction. In the third quarter, both the supply and demand sides remained deadlocked and watched, with little fluctuation in market prices. In the fourth quarter, as we entered the off-season, the market saw an increase in low-priced goods, and the price of titanium dioxide continued to decline.

In the first quarter, with low inventory in January and February, Longqi led a letter to raise the price of titanium dioxide. In March, the prices of upstream titanium concentrate and sulfuric acid increased, and the cost pressure price of titanium dioxide continued to rise. The cumulative increase from January to March is 4.75%. As of the end of March, domestic prices for rutile titanium dioxide ranged from 16800 to 18300 yuan/ton; The quotation for rutile titanium dioxide is around 15500 yuan/ton.

In the second quarter, the titanium dioxide market was weak in April. The prices of titanium concentrate and sulfuric acid fell from May to June, and the support for titanium dioxide weakened. In addition, the continued weak demand has put significant pressure on the shipment of titanium dioxide, leading to a decline in market prices. The cumulative decline from April to June was 8.2%. As of the end of June, domestic prices for rutile titanium dioxide ranged from 15300 to 16200 yuan/ton; The quotation for rutile titanium dioxide is around 14500-15300 yuan/ton.

In the third quarter, from July to September, the overall titanium dioxide market remained stable, with both supply and demand sides in a stalemate and observing, and market price fluctuations were not significant. The cumulative decline from 7-9 is 0.53%. As of the end of September, the domestic quotation for sulfuric acid method pyrite type titanium dioxide is mostly between 15000-16300 yuan/ton; The quotation for rutile titanium dioxide is around 14200-14500 yuan/ton.

In the fourth quarter, the situation of new orders in October was not good, and the titanium dioxide market is about to enter the off-season. Traders have more flexible transactions, and the market has increased low-priced supply. In November, nearly 20 companies reduced production and stopped operations to reduce inventory and cost pressures, in response to the current low demand in the market. The market demand in December still performed poorly, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment and a decline in prices. The cumulative decline from 10 to 12 is 5.1%. As of the end of December, the domestic quotation for sulfuric acid method gold red stone titanium dioxide is mostly between 14000-15700 yuan/ton; The quotation for rutile titanium dioxide is around 13000-13200 yuan/ton.

Current situation of titanium dioxide in 2024 and expectations for 2025

Import and export aspects

According to customs data, the import volume of titanium dioxide in China in November 2024 was 6700.87 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 27.66% and a month on month increase of 3.94%; From January to November 2024, China imported a total of about 84700 tons of titanium dioxide, a year-on-year increase of 15.51% compared to last year, and the import volume increased by about 11400 tons.

According to customs data, China’s titanium dioxide exports in November 2024 were 149300 tons, a decrease of 3.23% compared to the previous month and an increase of 19.54% compared to the same period last year; From January to November 2024, China’s cumulative export of titanium dioxide was about 1.7433 million tons, an increase of 16.35% compared to the same period last year, and the export volume increased by about 245000 tons. In 2023, the export volume of titanium dioxide from China was only 1.6417 million tons.

According to the China Trade Remedy Information Network, on July 11, 2024, the European Commission issued a preliminary anti-dumping ruling on titanium dioxide originating in China, imposing temporary anti-dumping duties ranging from 14.4% to 39.7% on the products involved.

On January 9, 2025, the European Commission issued a final anti-dumping ruling on titanium dioxide originating in China, imposing anti-dumping duties of 0.25-0.74 euros/kg on the products involved.

In terms of production capacity and output

According to publicly available information, China’s titanium dioxide production capacity will continue to grow in 2024, with a total production capacity of 6.05 million tons by the end of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 16.5% compared to 2023. The production capacity growth is mainly in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, Sichuan and other regions.

According to the Secretariat of the Titanium Dioxide Industry Technology Innovation Strategic Alliance, in 2024, there are a total of 42 full process titanium dioxide production enterprises in the industry with normal production conditions (excluding post-processing/post-treatment enterprises). The total amount of rutile type (including sulfuric acid process full process crude products, finished products, and chloride process products) and anatase type titanium dioxide and other related products produced by these 42 enterprises reached 4.766 million tons, an increase of 606000 tons or 14.57% from the previous year.

In terms of downstream terminal real estate

From January to November 2024, the national real estate development investment was 9363.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.4%. Among them, residential investment was 711.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.5%.

From January to November, the construction area of real estate development enterprises’ houses was 726014 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 12.7%. Among them, the construction area of residential buildings was 508.389 million square meters, a decrease of 13.1%. The newly started construction area of houses is 673.08 million square meters, a decrease of 23.0%. Among them, the newly started residential construction area was 489.89 million square meters, a decrease of 23.1%. The completed area of the house is 481.52 million square meters, a decrease of 26.2%. Among them, the completed residential area was 351.97 million square meters, a decrease of 26.0%.

From January to November, the sales area of newly-built commercial housing was 861.18 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 14.3%, of which the sales area of residential housing decreased by 16.0%. The sales revenue of newly-built commercial housing was 8512.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 19.2%, of which residential sales revenue decreased by 20.0%. At the end of November, the unsold area of commercial housing was 732.86 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 12.1%. Among them, the unsold residential area increased by 18.4%.

From January to November, real estate development enterprises received 9657.5 billion yuan in funds, a year-on-year decrease of 18.0%. Among them, domestic loans amounted to 1347.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.2%; Utilizing foreign investment of 3 billion yuan, a decrease of 29.2%; Self raised funds amounted to 3467.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.0%; Deposits and prepayments amounted to 2962.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 25.2%; Personal mortgage loans amounted to 1391.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 30.4%.

In November, the real estate development prosperity index (referred to as the “National Housing Prosperity Index”) was 92.62.

Summary and prediction

For the Chinese titanium dioxide industry in 2024, the EU’s anti-dumping duties are undoubtedly a cold wave. The obstruction of the export market has exacerbated the problem of overcapacity in the domestic market, leading to a decline in the price of titanium dioxide and causing many enterprises to suffer losses. From the end of 2024 to the beginning of 2025, more than ten companies have announced production cuts or shutdowns, and this trend is expected to continue until the Spring Festival holiday. At present, the prices of titanium dioxide manufacturers are mostly hovering around the cost line, and some companies are even experiencing losses.

Macro level: In 2024, the Chinese real estate market has entered the third year of a downward cycle, and the new housing sales market still faces significant pressure. In an optimistic situation, if the real estate market is expected to improve in the future, the renovation of urban villages and the collection and storage of existing housing will be accelerated, and residents’ willingness to purchase property will increase, the sales area of commercial housing in China may stop falling by 2025. This will bring certain benefits to the titanium dioxide market.

In terms of import and export, China’s titanium dioxide industry is facing enormous pressure. Under the influence of anti-dumping measures, the market may experience a situation of oversupply in the short term. However, in the long run, with technological and cost advantages, China’s titanium dioxide industry is expected to maintain competitiveness in the international market.

In terms of upstream raw materials, the domestic supply of raw material titanium concentrate is still tight, and the price continues to operate at a high level, which provides strong support for the cost of titanium dioxide powder.

In summary, titanium dioxide companies will still face significant pressure in 2025, given that the rate of capacity increase may exceed demand

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the recent consolidation and operation of the MDI market has resulted in a mainstream quotation of 18000-18100 yuan/ton for Shanghai goods (44V20, M20S, 5005) and 18200 yuan/ton for domestic goods (PM200). The on-site equipment is running smoothly, downstream companies are entering the market at a low price, and there is insufficient demand follow-up. The current market needs new information guidance, and the aggregated MDI market is in a stalemate and consolidating operation. We are closely monitoring the changes in the future market news.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 3, 2025, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China was 7100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan/ton or 0.23% compared to the reference price of 7116 yuan/ton on December 31.

After the return of New Year’s Day, the overall market situation of n-butanol in Shandong region of China is running at the low-end. Some factories have narrowly lowered the shipment price of n-butanol after the holiday, with a reduction of 50 yuan/ton. The overall focus of market negotiations has shifted downwards. As of January 3rd, the reference price for n-butanol market in Shandong Province, China is 7050-7150 yuan/ton.

On the supply side: Currently, the supply of n-butanol is relatively sufficient, and there is a certain supply pressure on the supply side. In order to maintain low inventory, factories actively ship and negotiate stable and narrow price adjustments.

On the demand side: Currently, the downstream production level of n-butanol is moderate, and caution is exercised in raw material procurement, mainly focusing on essential procurement. The overall transmission between supply and demand is weak and stable.

Market price situation of n-butanol

Region/ Product/ January 3rd

Shandong region/ N-butanol/ Around 7050-7150 yuan/ton

North China region/ N-butanol/ Around 7100-7200 yuan/ton

South China region/ N-butanol/ Around 7450-7500 yuan/ton

East China region/ N-butanol/ Around 7350-7400 yuan/ton

Market analysis in the future

At present, the trading atmosphere in the n-butanol market is light and mild, with average new orders and weak transmission between supply and demand. The n-butanol data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market will mainly adjust its range operation, and more attention should be paid to changes in supply and demand news.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of the 31st, the price of ethyl acetate was 5746.67 yuan/ton, an overall increase of 0.17% compared to the price of 5736.67 yuan/ton on December 21st. The main reason is the narrow fluctuation of the supplier’s capacity utilization rate and the unstable mentality of the factory, which has led to the continuous fluctuation of the price of ethyl acetate.

In late December, the domestic ethyl acetate plant experienced narrow fluctuations, resulting in changes in on-site supply, while downstream market enthusiasm was weak, mainly based on demand. The raw material market was weak, and cost support was insufficient. The market mentality of ethyl acetate was unstable, and the price situation was stagnant and operating.

In the future, there will be little change in the ethyl acetate plant, and the market supply of goods will remain stable. However, the enthusiasm of downstream buyers to enter the market is not high, and market transactions are limited. The news is mainly bearish, and it is expected that the price of ethyl acetate will be weak in the short term. Specific attention should be paid to changes in the supplier plant and downstream follow-up.