1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 17th, the reference average price of domestic urea market was 1851 yuan/ton, which is 1.07% lower than the reference average price of 1871 yuan/ton on December 10th.

2、 Market analysis

market conditions

This week, the domestic urea market has weakened and declined. As of December 17th, the factory price of urea in Shandong region is around 1720-1735 yuan/ton, in Hebei region it is around 1760 yuan/ton, in Henan region it is around 1740 yuan/ton, in Hubei region it is around 1750-1770 yuan/ton, and in Liaoning region it is around 1850 yuan/ton.

Supply and demand situation

This week, both supply and demand in the urea market have been weak. On the supply side, urea production has decreased this week, resulting in a decrease in market supply. In terms of demand, downstream procurement is relatively cautious, market trading has decreased, transaction atmosphere is light, and the demand side needs to be improved.

3、 Future forecast

The urea analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the domestic urea market has been weak recently. At present, the market is mainly wait-and-see, with poor downstream demand. It is expected that the short-term domestic urea market prices will continue to operate weakly.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic maleic anhydride market has recently risen. As of December 16th, the average market price of n-butane oxidation maleic anhydride remained at 6380 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.92% from 6380 yuan/ton on December 9th.

On the supply side: Last weekend, the production unit of maleic anhydride in Yantai unexpectedly shut down, causing a significant decline in the supply of liquid anhydride in the market. At the beginning of the week, the main factory price of maleic anhydride increased by 1000 yuan/ton, and dealer quotations followed suit. As of December 17th, the ex factory price of solid anhydride in Shandong region is around 7000 yuan/ton, and the ex factory price of liquid anhydride is around 6700 yuan/ton.

Upstream: Recently, the international crude oil market has risen, and the overall n-butane market has slightly increased. As of December 16th, the price in Shandong is around 5250 yuan/ton.

Downstream: Recently, the prices of styrene and maleic anhydride, raw materials for unsaturated resins, have continued to rise, putting pressure on the cost of unsaturated resins. In addition, unsaturated resins are mainly purchased for immediate downstream needs, which limits their support for unsaturated resins. Currently, unsaturated resins are cautious about pursuing higher prices for maleic anhydride and focus on demand.

The analyst of Shengyi Society’s maleic anhydride products believes that downstream unsaturated resins maintain a strong demand and provide limited support for the maleic anhydride market; At present, Yantai Wanhua is expected to shut down for about two weeks, resulting in a decrease in the supply of liquid anhydride and an increase in the ex factory price of maleic anhydride. Dealers are following up on prices, and it is expected that the maleic anhydride market will continue to have an upward trend in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average price of ammonium sulfate in the domestic market on December 13th was 813 yuan/ton, which is 0.41% lower than the average price of 816 yuan/ton on December 9th.

2、 Market analysis

The price of ammonium sulfate in the domestic market has slightly decreased this week. The operating rate of coking enterprises remains stable, while the operating rate of domestic enterprises has slightly decreased. This week, downstream demand is average, with price cutting procurement being the main focus and weak market transactions. The international market for ammonium sulfate is still weak, with no short-term improvement, which is bearish for the domestic market. As of December 13th, the mainstream ex factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 750 yuan/ton. Domestic grade ammonium sulfate, the mainstream ex factory quotation in Shandong region is around 820-850 yuan/ton.

3、 Future forecast

An ammonium sulfate analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the ammonium sulfate market has recently undergone a narrow adjustment. At present, the domestic and international market conditions are not good, and market trading is average. Without any favorable factors, it is expected that the domestic ammonium sulfate market price will remain stable with a weak trend in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average price of ammonium sulfate in the domestic market on December 9th was 816 yuan/ton, which is 1.80% lower than the average price of 831 yuan/ton on December 2nd.

2、 Market analysis

The price of ammonium sulfate in the domestic market has slightly decreased this week. The operating rate of coking enterprises remains stable, with a slight increase in the operating rate at the domestic level. This week, downstream demand has weakened and purchasing intentions are not strong. Currently, market confidence is insufficient, and the transaction price of ammonium sulfate market has fallen. The international market for ammonium sulfate has not improved yet and remains mainly weak. As of December 9th, the mainstream ex factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 780 yuan/ton. Domestic grade ammonium sulfate, the mainstream ex factory quotation in Shandong region is around 820-845 yuan/ton.

3、 Future forecast

An ammonium sulfate analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the ammonium sulfate market has been weak in recent days. At present, domestic market shipments are sluggish, and international market demand is sluggish. It is expected that the short-term domestic ammonium sulfate market price will continue to operate in a weak trend.

This week, the domestic fluorite price trend remained mainly stagnant. As of the weekend, the average domestic fluorite price was 3678.75 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.10% from the beginning of the week at 3675 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year increase of 2.90%.

Supply side: Limited mining operations and tight supply of fluorite

The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has not changed much. Upstream mining is tight, and backward mines will continue to be eliminated. In terms of new mines, mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, the national department needs to rectify fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. Although the rectification action is coming to an end, the affected area has not narrowed. The difficulty of fluorite mining operation has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises. The supply of fluorite remains tight, and the inventory of fluorite enterprises is low. With the supply shortage combined with the winter storage season, the atmosphere of factory price increases is strong. In addition, with the decrease of temperature in the north, the fluorite supply has decreased. This week.

Demand side: The price of hydrofluoric acid has declined, and the refrigerant market is still acceptable

The price trend of hydrofluoric acid has declined this week, and the mainstream price for hydrofluoric acid in various regions of China has been negotiated at 10800-11300 yuan/ton recently. The downstream hydrofluoric acid equipment is still in shutdown, and there is little change in the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid. Manufacturers mainly purchase hydrofluoric acid on demand, and the overall production of hydrofluoric acid is around 60%. In December, the pricing of hydrofluoric acid manufacturers decreased, and the price of fluorite remained stagnant due to this news.

The downstream refrigerant market in the terminal is still in good condition, and the demand for after-sales service in summer is quickly digested. The inventory will continue to be depleted throughout the year. Fluorine chemical enterprises within quota control have strong confidence in maintaining stable prices in the refrigerant market. Currently, the prices in the foreign trade market are gradually increasing, and upstream products are mainly purchased on demand. The market price of some refrigerant products has risen, which has led to a slight increase in the domestic fluorite market price.

In addition to the traditional demand in the refrigerant industry, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material for modern industry, is constantly developing in emerging fields. It is also applied in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as defense and nuclear industries, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF, graphite negative electrode, photovoltaic panel, etc. With the demand driven by new energy and semiconductor fields, fluorite applications have received certain support.

Market forecast: In the near future, it is difficult to improve the supply of domestic fluorite mines, and some mines have stopped production and undergone safety inspections. The tight supply of fluorite mines is a major positive support for the fluorite market. The recent downstream refrigerant product market is still acceptable, but the price trend of hydrofluoric acid has declined, and overall demand has not improved. Overall, the domestic fluorite market trend is mainly volatile.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the reference average price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in China was 6840 yuan/ton on November 1st, and 6660 yuan/ton on November 29th. The price of thermal phosphoric acid in China has dropped by 2.63% this month.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China was 6950 yuan/ton on November 1st, and 6983 yuan/ton on November 29th. The price of wet process phosphoric acid in China has increased by 0.48% this month.

2、 Market analysis

In the first half of November, the price of raw material yellow phosphorus decreased, cost support weakened, and the market price of thermal phosphoric acid fell. Market trading is limited, and there are not many new transactions. The raw material phosphate rock market has stabilized at a high level, with cost support, and the market price of wet process phosphoric acid has slightly increased. In the second half of November, the raw material yellow phosphorus market continued to weaken, the market price of hot process phosphoric acid continued to decline, and the trend of wet process phosphoric acid also began to decline. As of November 29th, the ex factory price of 85 thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6450-6800 yuan/ton, and in Sichuan region it is around 6600-6850 yuan/ton. The domestic market price for 85 wet process phosphoric acid is around 6950-7100 yuan/ton.

Raw material yellow phosphorus market. This month, the market price of yellow phosphorus has weakened and fallen. Downstream price cutting procurement, cautious in purchasing goods. At present, the market transaction atmosphere is quiet, and new orders are limited in volume. At the end of the month, some yellow phosphorus units were undergoing maintenance, resulting in a decrease in market supply. It is expected that domestic yellow phosphorus prices will stabilize in the short term.

Raw material phosphate rock market. This month, the phosphate ore market has been operating at a high level of consolidation. Downstream on-demand procurement with stable demand. It is expected to maintain stable consolidation and operation in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

Business Society’s phosphate analyst believes that the phosphate market has been running steadily in recent days. At present, the raw material market is stabilizing and the cost support is average. Downstream procurement should be based on demand, and caution should be exercised when selecting goods. The market has a strong wait-and-see attitude, and it is expected that the short-term phosphoric acid market will stabilize and operate smoothly.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from November 25th to 29th, MTBE prices first fell and then rose from 5425 yuan/ton to 5445 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.37% during the period, a month on month increase of 1.92%, and a year-on-year decrease of 17.19%. After the price rose to a high level in the early stage, the manufacturer’s shipment slowed down significantly, and under the pressure of increased inventory, the manufacturer offered discounts for shipment. After offering discounts, the enthusiasm of downstream buyers was attracted, and there is still a certain demand for gasoline, so the transactions gradually improved, and the domestic MTBE market situation has been pushed up.

On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: The international oil price has fallen, and the main negative factors are: Israel and Hezbollah have officially reached a ceasefire agreement, the situation in the Middle East has further eased, and the recent strong trend of the US dollar. As of November 28th, the Brent crude oil benchmark price of Shengyi Society is $72.32 per barrel.

From the perspective of demand and downstream gasoline terminal demand, the increase in private car travel rate in winter provides support for terminal demand, and refineries have a strong willingness to raise prices. With the completion of some orders, the enthusiasm of operators may be temporarily suspended, but there will still be some gasoline orders to support it at the beginning of next month. Short term MTBE demand is influenced by favorable factors.

Supply side: Resource supply is expected to increase narrowly. Short term domestic MTBE supply is affected by bearish factors.

As of the close on November 28th, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has decreased by $4.2/ton compared to the previous trading day, with FOB Singapore closing at $691.49-693.49/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market decreased by $6/ton compared to the previous trading day, and FOB ARA closed at $817.49-817.99/ton. On Thanksgiving, the MTBE market in the United States is closed.

The future forecast for the MTBE market may see sporadic slight adjustments, with little room for fluctuation. MTBE analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the domestic MTBE market will experience narrow consolidation in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid in China remained stable at a high level this month. As of November 27th, the benchmark price of hydrofluoric acid in Shengyi Society was 11975.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.51% compared to the beginning of this month (11350.00 yuan/ton).

Raw material side: The price of raw material fluorite has increased this month. The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has not changed much. Upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and new mines will be added. Mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, national departments need to rectify fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. Although the rectification action is coming to an end, the affected area has not narrowed. The difficulty of operating fluorite mines has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises. The supply of fluorite sources is still tight. According to the monitoring system of Shengyi Society, as of November 28th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s fluorite was 3675.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.63% compared to the beginning of this month (3512.50 yuan/ton).

Demand side: Entering the off-season, downstream refrigerant market demand weakens. Some models of devices are expected to undergo maintenance or shutdown. For the decline in demand for upstream products, on-demand procurement is the main focus. Affected by this, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market price may experience a slight correction.

Market forecast: In the near future, the supply of hydrofluoric acid will be tight, the market price of raw materials will rise, the demand for downstream refrigerants will weaken, and some models of equipment are expected to undergo maintenance or shutdown. It is expected that the price of hydrofluoric acid may experience a correction in the later period.

1、 Price trend

According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda stabilized on November 27th. On November 27th, the average price of caustic soda in the Shandong region was 1021 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.54% from November 1st.

2、 Market analysis

According to the survey data from Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has been consolidating and operating. The price of caustic soda in Jiangsu region is currently stable, with a mainstream market price of around 1000-1080 yuan/ton for 32% ion exchange membrane alkali. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is currently stable, with a mainstream market price of around 990-1060 yuan/ton for 32% ion exchange membrane alkali. Local prices in Shandong remain stable and wait-and-see, while overall inventory levels of enterprises are low. In the short term, domestic alumina prices continue to show a strong trend, and demand for caustic soda is still acceptable, maintaining the current price trend of caustic soda.

On November 26th, the chemical index was 846 points, a decrease of 1 point from yesterday, a decrease of 39.57% from the highest point of 1400 points during the cycle (2021-10-23), and an increase of 41.47% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present).

Business analysts believe that in the near future, the price of caustic soda has been consolidating and operating, with low inventory in some areas. Downstream demand is expected to remain stable in the future, depending on downstream market demand.

1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by Shengyi Society, as of November 25th, the average price of domestic industrial grade high-quality cyclohexane was 77633.33 yuan/ton. As of November 25th, the domestic cyclohexane market was operating narrowly and weakly, with market transaction prices maintained at around 7500 yuan/ton. Currently, there is sufficient spot supply of cyclohexane, and follow-up is cautious.

2、 Market analysis

In terms of cost: Currently, the upstream pure benzene market is mainly operating at a high level, with a narrow range and strong operation, and the cost pressure is not reduced. The downstream market is mostly purchasing on demand, and there is no pressure on inventory. The market is mainly operating at high prices. The pure benzene prices of Sinopec’s refineries in East and South China are stable at 7250 yuan/ton, and the price will be implemented from November 20th.

Downstream aspect: The price of cyclohexanone in the downstream market fluctuates narrowly and strongly, with a slight rebound in price operation. The overall market supply is stable, and on-demand procurement is the main focus. The hydration method production capacity of the cyclohexanone plant in Luxi Chemical is 600000 tons, and the oxidation plant is shut down for 100000 tons. Cyclohexanone is mainly used for its own production of caprolactam.

3、 Future forecast

The cyclohexane analyst from Shengyi Society believes that there is currently support for upstream prices, but downstream demand is insufficient and the supply side is loose. It is expected that the current trend of cyclohexane will be maintained in the short term.