According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of activated carbon at the beginning of the week was 11956 yuan/ton, and the price of activated carbon at the end of the week was 11966/ton, with a price increase of 0.08%.

Domestic activated carbon manufacturers have seen some price increases this week, while most have remained stable. The ex factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China is between 9500-12500 yuan/ton, and market transactions have accelerated. Industry insiders are optimistic about the future and are focusing on market transactions.

The shipment of coconut shell charcoal for applications such as gold extraction, water purification, and filter cartridges has accelerated, especially for gold charcoal, which has received more inquiries from the African market; The shipment of fruit shell charcoal is smooth. There is a recent rebound trend in imported carbide materials, so pay more attention to the transaction situation.

Prediction: The trading atmosphere in the activated carbon market is active, and it is expected that the price of activated carbon will mainly fluctuate with a strong trend in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of soda ash first fell and then rose in February. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of light soda ash was 1494 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average market price was around 1498 yuan/ton. The price increased by 5 yuan/ton during the month, with an overall increase of 0.27%. On February 28th, the Business Society’s light soda ash index was 76.82, up 1.95 points from yesterday, a decrease of 59.38% from the cycle’s highest point of 189.10 points (2021-11-07), and an increase of 21.65% from the lowest point of 63.15 points on November 18, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the market for soda ash this month first fell and then rose. The utilization rate of soda ash production capacity remained at a high level during the month, and the market supply was sufficient. The sales pressure of spot soda ash factories was high, while downstream glass fluctuated narrowly and mainly consumed inventory, resulting in limited demand for soda ash and overall weak soda ash prices. At the end of the month, affected by the news of soda ash maintenance, the market supply expectation decreased, and the intention of factories to rise increased, resulting in a strong increase in soda ash prices.

As of February 28, 2025, the mainstream market price of light soda ash in East China is around 1480-1550 yuan/ton; The mainstream market price of light soda ash in Central China is around 1400-1500 yuan/ton; The mainstream market price of light soda ash in North China is around 1480-1570 yuan/ton.

On the demand side: According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, the price trend of glass has fluctuated and risen this month. The average market price of glass at the beginning of the month was 16.20 yuan/square meter, and the average market price at the end of the month was 16.40 yuan/square meter, an increase of 1.23%. The capacity utilization rate of the glass market has decreased, and the spot market is fluctuating at a high level. Downstream market entry follows suit according to demand, and the trading atmosphere in the market is still acceptable. The glass inventory has increased, and the price market is consolidating.

According to the price monitoring of Shengyi Society, the price comparison index of Shengyi Society’s soda ash and glass products on February 28th was 81.65, an increase of 4.69 points from yesterday, a decrease of 27.34% from the highest point of 112.37 points during the cycle (October 6, 2023), and an increase of 10.79% from the lowest point of 73.70 points on February 16, 2025. (Note: Cycle refers to January 1, 2012 to present)

Market forecast: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, there are maintenance plans for some domestic soda ash plants, and the expected capacity utilization rate is decreasing. The mentality of spot soda ash plants is optimistic. Recently, the price of light soda ash has risen strongly, and the overall demand for soda ash in the downstream is limited. The supply and demand game in the market is expected to cause fluctuations in soda ash prices in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

The butadiene rubber market experienced a significant decline in February. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 27th, the market price of butadiene rubber in East China was 14030 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.47% from 15000 yuan/ton at the beginning of February. The price of raw material butadiene has dropped significantly, and the cost center of butadiene rubber has shifted downwards; The production of Shunding rubber has slightly decreased compared to the end of January, and the pressure on the supply side has slightly decreased; In mid to late February, downstream tire production increased significantly, providing strong support for the demand for butadiene rubber. As of February 27th, the mainstream price in East China is 13850-14250 yuan/ton.

Since February, the price of butadiene has significantly decreased, and the cost center of butadiene rubber has shifted downwards. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 27th, the price of butadiene was 11087 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12.44% from 12662 yuan/ton at the beginning of February.

In February, the domestic production of butadiene rubber plants remained at around 6.20%, and the supply pressure slightly decreased compared to January.

Demand side: Downstream tire production will increase after the holiday, mainly supporting the demand for butadiene rubber market. As of February 20th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 8.0%; The construction of all steel tires by tire enterprises in Shandong region has slightly increased to around 6.7% of the load.

Market forecast: From a fundamental perspective, analysts from Shengyi Society believe that after a sharp drop in butadiene prices in the short term, it will consolidate weakly, and the cost support of butadiene rubber will continue to be weak; Post holiday downstream construction will increase; The production of butadiene rubber remains at a low level, and overall, it is expected that the butadiene rubber market will fluctuate and consolidate in the later stage.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of pure benzene first rose and then fell this month, with a slight overall decrease in price. The price of pure benzene has been rising since the beginning of the month, with slight fluctuations in mid month and a continuous decline in late month. On February 1st, the price was 7553 yuan/ton; On February 27th, the price was 7509.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.57% from the beginning of the month.

2、 Market analysis

Pure benzene: The domestic pure benzene market continues to decline. There is still pressure on local refining and shipping in Shandong region, and the focus continues to decline, releasing inventory pressure. In the East China region, import arbitrage has had a certain impact on the East China market, leading to a decline in market prices. Overall, business operators are more cautious and tend to adopt a wait-and-see attitude.

This month, the price of pure benzene from Sinopec dropped by 100 yuan/ton to 7550 yuan/ton.

Downstream aspects

3、 Future forecast

Crude oil futures: On February 26th, international crude oil futures closed down. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $68.62 per barrel, a decrease of $0.31 or 0.5%. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $72.07 per barrel, a decrease of $0.43 or 0.6%. The unexpected increase in finished oil inventories in the United States indicates that the expectation of weak demand remains unchanged; The addition of the Ukraine Russia peace agreement has put pressure on oil prices.

On February 26th, FOB Korea fell 24 to 874 US dollars per ton, CFR China fell 23 to 893 US dollars per ton, FOB Rotterdam fell 11 to 853 US dollars per ton, and FOB USG fell 4 to 298 US cents per gallon.

Overall forecast: The pure benzene market is expected to remain weak and volatile in the short term, with a wait-and-see attitude towards cost and demand news. Continue to monitor the trends of crude oil and external markets, as well as the impact of changes in pure benzene and downstream equipment dynamics and demand on the price of pure benzene.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 26, 2025, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China is 7133 yuan/ton. Compared with February 1 (reference price of n-butanol is 7066 yuan/ton), the price has increased by 77 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.94%.

In February, the overall n-butanol market in Shandong region of China showed a trend of “rising first and then falling”. In early February, with the return of the Spring Festival holiday, the n-butanol market in Shandong Province experienced an upward trend. As of February 15th, the reference price for n-butanol market in Shandong was 7300-7400 yuan/ton, with a 3.63% increase in the first half of the year.

In late February, the downstream stage of n-butanol stocking was basically completed, and the focus of n-butanol market negotiations shifted downwards. As of February 26th, the market price of n-butanol in Shandong region is around 7100-7200 yuan/ton, with a decline of 2.59% in the latter half of the year.

Analysis of Market Factors

In terms of supply and demand: In early February, after the holiday, some factories in the n-butanol field are expected to start production later, resulting in overall tight supply and lower supply pressure. Downstream demand for n-butanol is gradually recovering, and downstream demand is entering a stage of stocking. With the support of supply and demand, the market price of n-butanol is constantly moving upwards. The downstream stage stocking of n-butanol has basically ended, and the demand side has weakened, providing loose support for n-butanol. The overall supply side of n-butanol is under certain pressure, and some factories have shifted the focus of n-butanol market negotiations to ensure low inventory and make concessions for shipment.

In terms of cost: In February, the upstream propylene market fluctuated, but after the Spring Festival, the rise in the propylene market provided stronger cost support for n-butanol. Subsequently, the downward market trend weakened the support for n-butanol. As of February 25th, the reference price of propylene was 6810.75 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.18% compared to February 1st (6823.25 yuan/ton).

Market analysis in the future

At present, the overall operation of the n-butanol market is being consolidated, and the overall negotiation atmosphere in the market is relatively low-end. n-butanol factories are mostly stabilizing prices and shipping, while downstream users are mainly purchasing for essential needs at low prices. The n-butanol data analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market will mainly adjust its operation within a narrow range, and specific changes in supply and demand news need to be closely monitored.

Product Name: Pure Benzene

Latest price: On February 25th, the average market price was 7759.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.43% from the previous trading day.

Analysis: The price of pure benzene in the domestic market has fallen today. Shandong’s local refining enterprises continue to offer discounts on market prices, while the spot price of pure benzene in East China is consolidating weakly. International crude oil futures closed higher, while the price of pure benzene fell in the foreign market. Today, the styrene futures market weakened. Overall, the buying potential in the pure benzene market is still acceptable at low levels. It is expected that the pure benzene market will consolidate weakly in the short term, and actual transactions are subject to negotiation.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of the 21st, the price of ethyl acetate was 5623.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.30% compared to the price of 5640.00 yuan/ton on February 15th, and a decrease of 0.12% from the beginning of the month. The utilization rate of supply side production capacity has increased, downstream demand performance is insufficient, the market supply is strong and demand is weak, and the ethyl acetate market is consolidating and declining.

This week, the operating rate of domestic ethyl acetate plants has increased, the supply of market goods has increased, the prices of raw materials continue to rise, and cost pressure continues to increase. However, downstream production of ethyl acetate is not high, and demand performance is weak. In order to maintain shipments, enterprises have lowered their prices for ethyl acetate, resulting in poor on-site trading and weak operation of the ethyl acetate market.

In the future, some enterprises plan to increase the load of their ethyl acetate facilities, and the utilization rate of on-site production capacity will continue to increase. The pressure on market supply of goods will increase, and downstream factories will not start operating enough. Market demand is limited, and it is expected that the price of ethyl acetate will continue to be weak in the short term. Specific attention should be paid to changes in supplier facilities and downstream follow-up situations.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from February 14th to 21st, the average price of BDO in China fell from 8371 yuan/ton to 8285 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 1.02% during the period, a month on month drop of 1.53%, and a year-on-year drop of 12.12%. The domestic BDO market is weak and deadlocked. Approaching the settlement cycle, there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment, with contract orders trading and weak spot negotiations.

On the supply side, BDO’s new production capacity has not yet been put into operation and increased in volume, leading to an improvement in industry capacity utilization and a weakening of supply side support. However, if there are plans for equipment shutdown or maintenance in the later stage, and the industry suffers long-term losses, the supplier’s intention to maintain the price will continue. The supply of BDO is affected by favorable factors.

On the cost side, raw material calcium carbide: Currently, there is an overall abundance of calcium carbide waiting to be unloaded downstream, and downstream procurement prices are stable and wait-and-see. The market is in a stalemate, and the calcium carbide market is stabilizing and consolidating in the short term. Raw material methanol: The growth rate of the domestic methanol market is limited. As of 10:00 am on February 21st, the domestic methanol Taicang price is 2598 yuan/ton. The raw material calcium carbide market is consolidating, methanol prices are consolidating, and the impact on BDO costs is mixed.

On the demand side, the overall downstream load of the terminal is still acceptable, but most downstream costs are under pressure, with a focus on following up on raw material contract orders. Some spot purchases are made at low prices, suppressing the trend of raw materials. The demand side of BDO is affected by bearish factors.

In the future market forecast, some devices will be shut down for maintenance, and there will be some favorable conditions on the supply side, with a focus on stabilizing the market mentality of the supply side. However, downstream demand follow-up is average, and the transmission of industrial chain costs is not smooth, resulting in strong bargaining sentiment towards raw materials. The short-term market lacks significant support. Business analyst BDO predicts that the domestic BDO market is mainly weak.

1、 Market dynamics

The acrylic acid market remains stable with slight price fluctuations but overall trend remains stable. As of February 17th, the benchmark price of acrylic acid in Shengyi Society was 7737.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.16% compared to the beginning of this month (7725.00 yuan/ton). The recent rise in crude oil prices and strong bullish sentiment in the market have provided some support for the price of acrylic acid.

2、 Rising raw material prices

Acrylic is the main raw material for the production of acrylic acid, and its price fluctuations directly affect the production cost of acrylic acid. Recently, the market price of propylene has risen, leading to an increase in the production cost of acrylic acid, which in turn has pushed up the market price of acrylic acid. As of February 17th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6858.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.51% compared to the beginning of this month (6823.25 yuan/ton).

3、 Supply shortage

1. Device maintenance and load reduction: Some acrylic acid production enterprises are undergoing annual maintenance or load reduction production of their devices, resulting in a decrease in the operating level of the acrylic acid industry and a reduction in market supply.

2. Increased concentration of production capacity: In recent years, China’s acrylic acid industry has continuously expanded its production capacity, and some large enterprises have improved their profitability by optimizing their production capacity structure and controlling production volume. This has increased the concentration of the industry and to some extent limited the market supply of acrylic acid.

4、 Downstream demand remains stable

Despite the price increase in the acrylic acid market, downstream demand remained stable overall and there was no large-scale demand explosion. This has led to the acrylic acid market maintaining a strong operation despite tight supply, resulting in sustained price increases.

5、 Market mentality and expectations

With the rise in acrylic acid prices, market sentiment has been boosted. Some downstream users have started to digest contracts, but the sustained high volatility of prices has also prompted some downstream users to enter the market for replenishment. At the same time, market participants hold a certain optimistic expectation for the future market trend, which has also played a driving role in the rise of acrylic acid prices.

Overall, the recent rise in the acrylic acid market is mainly due to the increase in raw material prices and tight supply. It is expected that the overall price of acrylic acid will be relatively strong next week, with a floating range of 50-100 yuan/ton. After the 15th Five Year Plan, enterprises gradually started production, and the demand for acrylic acid was relatively flat, with some support for raw material prices. Therefore, it is expected that the production of acrylic acid will continue to increase next week, and the mainstream price of acrylic acid in East China is expected to remain stable at 7700-8000 yuan/ton.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of bromine has remained stable this week. The average market price from the beginning of the week to the end of the week was 21800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.11% compared to the same period last year. On February 13th, the Business Society Bromine Index was 76.49, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 68.80% from the highest point of 245.18 points (2021-10-27) during the cycle, and an increase of 29.82% from the lowest point of 58.92 points on October 29, 2014. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

This week, the price of bromine is running steadily, and in the Shandong region, the price of bromine is running steadily. The mainstream market price is around 21500-22000 yuan/ton, and bromine manufacturers are gradually resuming production. But downstream demand is weak. In terms of raw materials, domestic sulfur prices have remained strong, with an average market price of 1661 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 1694.33 yuan/ton at the end of the week. The price has increased by 2.01%, which is 71.72% higher than the same period last year. Downstream demand is still acceptable.

Prediction: Bromine prices are expected to remain stable in the near future, while upstream sulfur prices are expected to rise. Bromine production will continue after the holiday, but downstream demand is still mainly based on on-demand procurement. The comprehensive supply-demand game predicts that bromine prices may continue to consolidate in the later period, depending on downstream market demand.